Bump-Drafts.com

(A Special Weekly Edition Prepared for NASCAR_Nation)

I should take the week off……but I won’t. I’ll keep it a little more brief, but the occasion gives me opportunity to weigh in on trends as we make our way into Turn One of the 2008 season.

Biggest surprise- For me, it’s not Junior, I expected improvement. It’s not Toyota’s performance, you may remember I predicted that. It’s Richard Childress Racing. I had been dissing on them after their late 2007 collapse in the Chase. Kevin Harvick has been remarkably consistent, Jeff Burton is our most recent winner (plus he’s posting an average finish of 8.2), and Clint Bowyer has flashes of true racing brilliance. The tire strategy at Bristol was a HUGE gamble- and they made it work.

Biggest disappointment- It’s not Jeff or Jimmie. I’m predicting no 3-peat for J.J., and I stand my forecast that Gordon will not make the Chase. For me, the biggest disappointment has to be…..The Open Wheel Invasion. I support their presence in NASCAR, but man I didn’t think we’d see Jacques Villenueve and A.J. Allmendinger without rides, or Dario Franchitti as a “go or go homer.” Sam Hornish is hanging on, and Patrick Carpentier can’t get in a race. Reed Sorenson isn’t fulfilling his potential either.

In my opinion, things are better in NASCAR in 2008. Our first 5 races have produced 4 different winners from 4 different makes from 4 different teams. In doesn’t get much more even than that.

Did anyone really think (outside his legion of fans) that Junior would be Hendrick’s Top Driver statistically?
Rock Solid Shops- Joe Gibbs has brought respectability to Toyota. Richard Childress is solid to to bottom (imagine Bowyer being your #3 driver). Roush-Fenway has three drivers running solid, with a 4th showing signs of promise. Penske and Gillett Evernham are getting their money’s worth from Ryan Newman and Kasey Kahne.

Hanging On- Richard Petty Enterprises looks to be in rough shape. Yates Racing can’t get a sponsor for Travis Kvapil. Bill Davis and the Wood Brothers appear to be on life support.

Did anyone really believe that DEI would be doing as well as they are? Martin Truex is looking pretty good and so is the Martin/Almirola Show in the #8.
T.V. Ratings Are Up
Crashing Out Is DownI’m not ready to say that this is a great year, but NASCAR seems to have something for 2008.

Now get out there and enjoy some spring air. Oh yeah, enjoy the Nationwide race in Nashville.

(A Special Weekly Post Prepared for letsgoracingfans.com)

1954. Dwight Eisenhower was President, the Dodgers were still in Brooklyn, gas cost about a dime a gallon and Tim Flock set a NASCAR record by winning 18 Cup races. That year, Al Keller won a race in Linden, New Jersey in a Jaguar- the last time a foreign name plate won a race at stock car racing’s highest level.

Fast forward to 1995. Bill Clinton was President, Brett Favre won his first NFL MVP award, and gas cost about half (or less) of what it does today. That year, on March 12, Jeffrey Michael Gordon won his first race at AMS at the age of 23 years, 7 months, and 8 days.

On March 9, 2008, Kyle Busch wrote his name in the NASCAR history books. At a track known for its close finishes, Busch the Younger (also known as “Rowdy” or “Shrub”), pulled away from Tony Stewart and Dale Earnhardt Jr. The win gets Toyota off the snide at NASCAR’s top level, and Busch becomes the youngest winner at Atlanta at 22 years, 10 months, and 7 days (I needed extra fingers and toes to count that one).

It was just a matter of time.

While credit must go to Smoke, Junior, Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle and Clint Bowyer for pushing Busch, he was in control in his very out of control way. Even if he whines, even if he’s overly aggressive, even he ain’t the most angelic face in the NASCAR line-up- give him his due. He knows how to race. Right now, he’s scary fast and crazy consistent.

I would be remiss to ignore the skill of other drivers who overcame long odds to break up front. Smoke gained 30 spots to his second place finish in a car he fought with and tires he hated even more. Matty Kenseth gained 30 pots as well to finish 8th- after starting 38th. Don’t look now, but there’s another promising young Toyota driver making noise, and he doesn’t even race for Joe Gibbs. Brian Vickers started 35th, but ran all the way up to 9th, putting him in the Chase if it began today. Kurt Busch and Casey Mears also quietly finished significantly better than they started.

Jimmie Johnson and Kasey Kahne also deserve props. Johnson took another terrible car and managed to pull off a respectable finish (13th). Another racer would have finished 30th or worse. Kahne overcame a nasty early race spin to pull out a 26th place finish. In the old car, he would have wrecked out. These guys get the Rocky Balboa Award for winning a knock down drag out with their cars.

Speaking of the new car,- wouldn’t you agree that it has its merits? It’s a miracle that Elliott Sadler didn’t go after the first caution, but kept his car out there through THREE mishaps before throwing in the towel. An incredible 41 of 43 drivers finished on a day where the tires were a disaster.

Oh yeah, there’s those doggone tires. If enough guys complain, then maybe they won’t go too hard on Tony Stewart for his post-race diatribe against Goodyear Tires. Bobby Labonte tested at Atlanta back in the Fall- I’d be real interested to hear what he might have to say. As it is, I’m afraid the message will be missed because of the messenger- though his point had some validity. Those were lousy tires.

Kyle Busch has looked like a top 5 driver this year. If he keeps it up, me not only win the Cup title, but the Nationwide and CTS titles too.

Many of the issues currently facing NASCAR revolve around change. There’s been a lot of change going on this decade from the Chase to the ”Car of Tomorrow”. Issues like this and controversies over the “Lucky Dog” and invasion of open wheel drivers to stock car racing’s top level have pitted long time fans versus NASCAR leadership and a newer wave of fans who may be fewer in number.

It is a popular notion among NASCAR traditionalists that the sport is pure American with a particular emphasis on the southern U.S. When you consider that NASCAR was Florida born and its top legends from places like North Carolina, Alabama and the Sunshine State- you’d tend to agree. These same traditionalists have tended to cringe at the building of new tracks throughout the North and West, and they, as a general rule, are not fans of West Coasters such as Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson. Adding to the angst is the presence of a foreign manufacturer (Toyota), and a flood of drivers from foreign lands with names like Franchitti and Carpentier who used to drive funny looking race cars.

Many traditionalists will argue such events are ruining NASCAR, taking it away from its roots. Some will tell you that your dad’s NASCAR was just fine without all of this, and they point to falling TV ratings and ticket sales as evidence to their point. You can imagine the delight of some when owner Bill Davis replaced former open wheeler Jacques Villenueve with Johnny Benson and Mike Skinner on an indefinite basis after the Canadian failed to qualify for the Daytona 500. Then, just this week, former open wheeler A.J. Allmendiger’s NASCAR Cup career was put on hold by Team Red Bull.

Such prejudice is short-sighted at best, and downright prejudicial at worst.

First of all, this is not the first time open wheelers have been present in NASCAR. Do names like Mario Andretti, A.J. Foyt and Johnny Rutherford ring a bell? They all ran part time NASCAR racing schedules back in the 60s and 70s. In fact, Foyt earned 7 NASCAR victories and even once won the Daytona 500. What about Tony Stewart? He came over from Indy Car racing. J.J. Yeley and A.J. Allmendinger are also just a couple of NASCAR’s drivers of today who have made the switch- so this is nothing new.

Some argue that these drivers, by jumping from IRL and Formula One without rising through the ranks, are depriving up and coming drivers from sitting in a Sprint Cup ride. Oh really! So if the likes of Scott Wimmer or Jason Leffler were truly ready for the big time, wouldn’t they be given full time Cup rides? Well, considering the expense of competing and the need to be as successful as possible, I think it’s safe to say NASCAR car owners will put the most successful fannies in the seats of their cars, even if it’s a 74 year old from Botswana. What’s more- these are not unproven neophytes, but accomplished drivers. There’s a learning curve, but the open wheelers are just as qualified, if not more to master the learning curve. I submit Sam Hornish’s solid run Sunday as evidence of a guy who’s "getting it" quite quickly.

Besides, if our home grown guys are so great, let them prove it on the track against the likes of Juan Pablo Montoya and Sam Hornish (an American born Indy champ). Given the pressure and need to make money in this expensive business, the open wheelers will be gone quicker than you can say Patrick Carpentier if they can’t perform.

I know many fans think the sport was just fine the way it is. In this ever change day and age, NASCAR would have stagnated without the growth brought about by the infusion of new blood behind the wheel. No major sport can sustain itself on purely regional support. Just ask the National Hockey League.

NASCAR fans hate it when I compare it to other sports, but what if baseball kept out the Latinos? There’d be no Juan Marichal or Big Papi Ortiz. What if the NBA shut out Europeans? Say good-bye to Tony Parker and Dirk Nowitski. Without the presence of foreign born players, the NFL would be deprived of Christian Okoye and Usi Omenyura. So why should NASCAR be any different?

I, a proud American of conservative political leanings, want to go on record as being supportive of the presence of the open wheel drivers. It’s a great topic for debate and its good for growing the fan base of the support. Think about it. Your favorite driver is someone you relate personally….more than anything else.

Welcome to NASCAR open wheelers…..let’s see what you’ve got.

The big day Toyota is waiting for is about to arrive. They’ve come close in the first two races of the season to picking up their first Sprint Cup victory, and after being a bridesmaid for two weeks, they’ll finally be a bride, thanks to the driving of one of their new additions, courtesy of Joe Gibbs Racing.

Shrub has two factors working for him. First of all, he’s racing harder than anyone I’ve ever seen. Have you noticed how sideways he gets in the turns? He looks like he’s doing a power slide on a dirt track! It’s very early in the year, but the younger Busch getting a handle on how to be aggressive without hitting people. No less than Mark Martin has said that Kyle Busch is in a zone, something Martin says he recognizes because HE’s been there.

Secondly, Toyota is primed for a win. Love Toyota or hate Toyota, you would have to agree that the manufacturer has a very stout engine this year (about the only thing that really seperates the makes with the “new” car). If Busch doesn’t get Toyota a win this week- Smoke, Hamlin or even David Reutimann will get them one soon. It’s just a matter of time. Heck, even Mike Skinner put up a good qualifying time.

Many of the usual suspects will be primed to make a run at Busch and are also likely candidates to win at Sin City. I look for good races from Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, the resurging Kasey Kahne, or outside pole Carl Edwards.

The weather forecast looks good. I’m just hoping for a better event than last weekend.

(A Weekly Edition of bump-drafts.com prepared specially for NASCAR_Nation and NASCAR For Dummies)

What’s Going On Out There? Like many of you, I while away the time in anticipation of the 2008 by checking in from time to time about what’s going on off the track. There’s no shortage of news and grist for the rumor mill. Like:

Mendeering Moves On- That’s today’s big news. You may remember Jeff Mendeering as the guy who filled in as Crew Chief for Jeff Gordon while Steve Letarte was serving his suspension. Former Team Gordon guy Robbie Loomis has been making moves for Petty Enterprises these days, and has brought Mendeering on board to be Crew Chief for Petty driver Bobby Labonte.

You can tell that the King’s men are working feverishly to reclaim Petty glory. They brought Labonte in to pilot Papa Petty’s famed #43 Dodge. Last season, they made yet another Crew Chief change when they brought in Doug Randolph to replace Paul Andrews.  Now we have this move.

As a Labonte fan, I hope it works. I still think Petty still needs to invest in the future by bringing on a promising young driver to groom for NASCAR glory, perhaps to drive Kyle’s car (c’mon Kyle, you know it’s time to go to the booth already).

One thing for sure, Mendeering has learned a thing or two about success in all his years in the Hendrick Motor Sports garage.

The State of The Sport- There’s a lot of banter in the media about fan unrest concerning the sport about which they are so passionate. Some would have you believe that the unrest is so great that the sport is in trouble.

I will need to post very soon as to my own take on the numerous changes that have occurred over the last 4 years or so. I will say no more today than to say that the rumors of NASCAR’s demise are greatly exaggerated. Right now, marketers only rank the NFL ahead of NASCAR as a vehicle to reach upscale (so much for this being a “redneck” sport) males. It’s easy to see that even from an anecdotal perspective, NASCAR is gaining new fans all the time.

Yes, there’s plenty of room for improvement, but the good news (no matter who you are), is that the sport we love so much is very much alive and well. At least the powers that be in NASCAR are for more fan responsive than Major League Baseball, where they live in continual denial about the realities of the viewing public.

Face it folks, no matter how angry you are at Brian France and Mike Helton, you’ll still be there for 2008. Admit it.

Questions About Moves for 2008 Abound- Thank goodness we have a short off-season. There is much water cooler talk about how changes made at the end of the 2007 season will affect 2008. Among other questions:

How will Junior fare at HMS? Was his disastrous 2007 season due to his team, or his driving? Is he really a great driver experiencing bad luck, or is he overrated, thanks to his famous last name?

How will former HMS driver Kyle Busch get along at JGR? The combination of Busch with other strong personalities such as Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin could make for sparks of a good kind or sparks of a bad kind. How will that work? That may depend on…..

How will Toyota fare now that they are affiliated with a major racing team? Toyota haters hate this move, as there are still many that feel a “foreign” (don’t get me started on this now) manufacturer has no business in an American sport. I have to think this move will pan out (The JGR-Toyota marriage). There’s too much at stake for the JGR organization and the Toyota Corporation for this to fail. Still, they have to make it work on the track. If not…..

What will become of Tony Stewart? It’s contract renewal time for Smoke. It’s no secret that struggles at JGR with Toyota would no doubt signal the end of Smoke’s run with Gibbs. Other factors that will play into this is Smoke’s market value (which is very high- who wouldn’t want this successful yet colorful character. Arguably, only Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson are better among veteran drivers). Stewart will want his due. Also, you can’t around GM’s love of Tony and Smoke’s long standing association with Chevrolet. Hmm. Well, let’s just say that winning trumps everything, so we’ll just have to see how this will play out.

How much effect will having open wheelers have at NASCAR’s highest level? If you believe Jerry Bonkowski from yahoo.com, not much. The struggles of Sam Hornish and Dario Franchitti among others demonstrate that even a talented driver can’t just jump into a “stock” car and win. Will Villanueve, Carpentier, and company master the learning curve, or will they become discouraged at return to whence they came? I anticipate a more mixed result- but then, I’m just a fan.

I’m also wondering with great interest where David Stremme, Tony Raines and Jeff Green will land in 2008. I’m also wondering when Brad Coleman, Landon Cassil, Stephen Leicht and Jeffrey Earnhardt will get their Cup break. 

But perhaps the biggest question of them all is: How will we the fans survive until “Speed Week”? I’m working on it, I’m working on it.

Until next week…hang in there. Let me know if you hear anything.

NASCAR’s getting to be a regular soap opera. They talk about silly season? I think silly season in this sport runs January 1 through December 31. The rumors, suggestions of conspiracies, and whining by fans never ends. This is some of the stuff going on lately and rumors I’ve been hearing about:

"Smoke" Breezing on to RCR- That’s right. Rumor has it that Tony Stewart will move on to become a 4th driver at Richard Childress Racing when his contract with Joe Gibbs Racing ends. As one who has been following pro sports journalistically for a long time, let me tell you a lot of talk (and I mean talk) gets thrown around. Suffice it to say, Tony Stewart and his agent know darn well his value to JGR as the veteran leader and most consistent performer. While Denny Hamlin and the soon arriving Kyle Busch are fantastic drivers, they don’t have Smoke’s mileage and track record. No doubt Stewart would love to get top dollar for his services. Floating rumors about a move to RCR would serve that end well, especially knowing that Gibbs’ Racing would highly value the credibility Stewart would give JGR while they begin work with a new manufacturer (Toyota)  that has not performed especially well in its first season with NASCAR.

Let me assure you that this is just a rumor. J.D. and Joe have plenty of money to keep Tony around, and while his presence on the team comes with a psychological price tag, as well as monetarily, they know what they have and will do everything to keep him.

To be perfectly honest, those who hate the presence of the Japanese auto giant in the Cup Series are more likely the source of this talk- if it’s not being "leaked" by someone in the Stewart camp posturing for more money.

A Tony move to RCR ain’t gonna happen folks.

Hall of Fame Racing to go with Toyota- Hall of Fame Racing, owned by executives from the Arizona Diamondbacks, as well as NFL legends Roger Staubach and Troy Aikman, are quite likely to move to Toyota next year.

Considering their affiliation with Joe Gibbs’ Racing, the move makes sense. The owners of the #96 currently driven by 44-year old Tony Raines will also be hiring on former Gibbs’ driver J.J. Yeley, aced out of the JGR picture by the arrival of Kyle Busch, who lost his ride at Hendrick Motor Sports when Dale Earnhardt Jr. announced he was leaving DEI to go with Jeff Gordon and Company. This my friends is what you call a domino effect.

This WILL happen.

Sam Hornish Goes Cup- This IS happening. An announcement is being made that Indy Car Champion Sam Hornish will join the growing legion of open wheel drivers joining up with NASCAR. Roger Penske is adding a third team with a car that Hornish will pilot. He will drive a #77 Dodge with Mobil One as a primary sponsor. Some fans are disturbed by the move, as they question the commitment of Penske to his two current teams for Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman. Busch made the Chase for the Nextel Cup this year, but his performances have been a bit uneven. Newman hasn’t won a race in over 2 years. Meanwhile Hornish has been unable to qualify the #06 Penske Dodge.

Hornish joins Juan Pablo Montoya, Jacques Villanueve, Dario Franchitti, and Patrick Carpentier as former open wheel drivers who’ve recently made the jump.

Driver Scramble- This week Johnny Benson will take over the #36 Toyota recently vacated by Jeremy Mayfield. Mayfieldis finishing out the 2007 season in his 2008 ride, the #66 Chevrolet once driven by Jeff Green. Mike Skinner has seen recent action in the car Benson will be driving.

Kyle Busch will be a busy guy this week. We learned in the Thursday edition of ESPN’s NASCAR Now that Busch the younger will enter the Busch Series race, the Craftsman Truck race, and will be running a Late Model race in Las Vegas (Busch’s home town). And oh by the way, Kyle will still be looking to fortify his 4th place standing in the Nextel Cup chase Sunday.

Busch Series stalwart Brad Coleman will see Cup action in 2008. The Texas native has signed on to do 7 races at NASCAR’s top level in 2008 for Hall of Fame as they will add a second team. Earlier, the 19-year old Coleman had committed run with Brewco Racing in what will be called the Nationwide (soon to be formerly Busch) Series in 2008.

There’s a lot of movement and not certain word on the 2008 whereabouts of Green, Tony Raines, Johnny Sauter, David Stremme (who seems to have a Nationwide ride lined up) and Kenny Wallace.

There’s lots of commotion in the pits as well. Denny Hamlin has just announced a change on his crew for changing tires. Fatback Mc Swain (Crew Chief late of Wood Bro’s.) is looking for work, and we’re hearing that yet another Crew Chief will guide the #43 Dodge driven by Bobby Labonte. jayski.com says Doug Randolph, who took over the lead in the pit box, is moving to to guide the #15 Chevy of Paul Menard. Menard’s Crew Chief is being promoted to technical director at DEI.

Wow! this is making my head spin.

We’ll try to stay on top of it.

Gosh ladies, you thought following the soaps was complicated.

What we’ve been hearing for months has become official today: beginning in 2008, Toyota will become a manufacturer for Joe Gibbs Racing, home to perennial Cup contender Tony Stewart, the up-and-coming Denny Hamlin, and soon to be home to Kyle Busch- regarded by some as the best young racer in the NASCAR Nextel Cup circuit. The move ends Gibbs’ 15-year association with General Motors.

NASCAR purists are up in arms. Most fans of the traditional NASCAR bent have loathed the presence of the Japanese-based auto maker since the announcement came down that they would enter the world of NASCAR auto racing in 2007. I’ve read more than one comment that amounts to, “NASCAR is an American sport. Rice rockets don’t belong here.” The fact that Toyota cars have struggled this season has no doubt caused such individuals to snicker with glee. First, we had the Michael Waltrip Racing violation before the season even began. Second, Toyota being a bit behind the curve has resulted in several otherwise reliable drivers (Dale Jarrett, Michael Waltrip, and Jeremy Mayfield) struggling and often not making the field. Then, when they do, the good runs are short lived. How many times have we seen Brian Vickers and David Reutimann run well for short stretches, only to “peter out?” There’s also been more than one occasion where we’ve seen Dale Jarrett and Michael Waltrip encounter engine trouble. The maiden voyage of Toyota at NASCAR’s top level has a ride filled with sea sickness.

Given that, I’m sure that purists are questioning the sanity of Joe and J.D. Gibbs, who are putting their winning reputations on the line. I’m also sure they’re waiting for the outspoken Tony Stewart to go on some kind of strike. I mean, you can only imagine what Smoke’s reaction would be if he would run into the same problems that say, Jarrett has. You’d have to be thinking, what in the name of Dale Earnhardt is going on here?

Let me first of all say, this move has been a win for Toyota, because the switch by the Gibbs team to the makers of the Camry gives them a higher level of credibility. Purists would say “Duh.” There’s no comparing the brain trust that has produced 3 Nextel Cup championships (2 by Tony Stewart, 1 by Bobby Labonte) to Michael Waltrip Racing, Red Bull Racing, or Bill Davis. The JGR folks are proven winners and wouldn’t make the move if they thought it would ruin their standing as a top team.

It’s also a win for Gibbs as well. WHAT??? Think about it, after what has happened this year, don’t you think Toyota is HIGHLY motivated to produce a better product in 2008? No question about it! Do they have the engineering and the funds to pull it together? Hmmmm, since we’re talking about one of the top selling manufacturers in the world, I’d say, “Yes.” How about their track ecord elsewhere: the Craftsman Truck Series, for example. Toyota’s doing quite well there, thank you very much, and that’s just ONE example of how, after an adjustment or warming up period, Toyota kicks butt.

It’s real simple: Gibbs had a good gig with GM. This was not a move born of deperation or anything resembling it. I’m sure there were boatloads of cash involved and replete assurances by the manufacturer that they’d supply the product needed to continue JGR’s winning ways. Who could say no to that? It’s not like this move will destroy Chevrolet. You figure they still have Hendrick Motorsports, Richard Childress Racing and DEI as top teams to represent them. I somehow think GM won’t miss Gibbs a whole lot.

So its real simple. Toyota gets a top team to work for, and Joe Gibbs gets a lot of money and support.

This marriage will work. Either that, or it will have the same shelf life of a Britney Spears union. Stay tuned.