Bump-Drafts.com

For the last several hours, I’ve been trying to wrap my head around qualifying for the Daytona 500. I now have arrived at the same conclusion as ol’ D.W. “It’s not hard to understand if you understand it.”

To boil it down, here’s what we know:

1) All drivers in the top 35 owner points are in. Except Kurt Busch, who’s points the esteemed boss Roger Penske gave to Cup rookie Sam Hornish. Hornish is in, Busch is a “Go or go homer” except that he has a “Past Champion’s provisional” he can use, so he’ll be in anyway.

2) Jimmie Johnson has the pole. He did it the old-fashioned way- he ran faster than everyone else. Phew. That was easy.

3) Michael Waltrip has the “outside” pole with the 2nd fastest qualifying time. Mikey also heads the go or go home class with it. He and Johnson are the only ones as of tonight who know where they’ll start Sunday.

4) Because the top 4 racers from pole qualifying get in the race, David Reutimann and Joe Nemechek are also in the race. Unlike Mikey, they don’t know where yet.

That’s where things are sitting now. Thursday, the flag lowers for two qualifying races known as the Gatorade Duel 150. The TWO highest finishing cars from each of the duels not already qualified will get in.

One of those spots may be taken away thanks to the usage of the Past Champion provisional. Three go or go-homers have one: Bill Elliott, Dale Jarrett and Kurt Busch. Who gets dibs on it is ranked by the most recent champion, so the order is : Busch, Jarrett and Elliott. Suffice it to say one of these guys will have to use it.

If you want a more stripped down version of this, here’s what I am copying verbatim off of FOX-TV’s coverage from Sunday. I must add, it was funny as heck listening to Mike Joy trying to explain this:

DAYTONA 500- HOW THE LINEUP IS SET:

* FRONT ROW: 2 FASTEST CARS IN QUALIFYING (ed: Johnson, Waltrip)

* TOP 35 IN CAR OWNER POINTS FROM 2007 ARE “LOCKED IN” TO RACE

* 2 HIGHEST FINISHERS IN EACH QUALIFYING RACE

* PAST CHAMPIONS PROVISIONAL IN IF NEEDED (ed: one person from list of Busch, Jarrett and Elliott are eligible)

* FASTEST 1-4 QUALIFIERS FROM POLE QUALIFYING (ed: Johnson, Waltrip, Reutimann and Nemechek).

Here’s the “Go or Go Homers” List when qualifying began Sunday:

00- David Reutimann (he’s in the race, positioned not yet determined)
2- Kurt Busch (2004 Champ)
08- Carl Long
09- Sterling Marlin
10- Patrick Carpentier
21- Bill Elliott (1988 Champion)
27- Jacques Villenueve
34- John Andretti
37- Eric Mc Clure
44- Dale Jarrett (1999 Champion)
49- Ken Schrader
50- Stanton Barrett
55- Michael Waltrip (he’s in at #2)
60- Boris Said
78- Joe Nemechek (he’s in, position not yet determined)
83- Brian Vickers
84- A.J. Allmendinger
87- Kenny Wallace

The question of WHERE racers will be in the Sunday field will be settled by Thursday night.

Unfortunately, somebody who ran well today won’t get in. of the guys left, I thought Said, Carpentier, Villenuve, Jarrett and Mc Clure ran very well today. You could even make a good argument for Bill Elliott. You do the math, and you figure one or more of these guys will watch it on TV with the rest of us.

I hate to say it because I like these guys, but the Petty cars (Kyle and Bobby Labonte) didn’t look like they belonged in the field. Neither did J.J. Yeley, or even Jeff Burton.

What a mess!

NASCAR.com writer Dave Rodman had it pegged when he referred to the top 35 points rule as “infernal.”

I need an Advil.

(A Weekly Edition of bump-drafts.com prepared specially for NASCAR_Nation and NASCAR For Dummies)

What’s Going On Out There? Like many of you, I while away the time in anticipation of the 2008 by checking in from time to time about what’s going on off the track. There’s no shortage of news and grist for the rumor mill. Like:

Mendeering Moves On- That’s today’s big news. You may remember Jeff Mendeering as the guy who filled in as Crew Chief for Jeff Gordon while Steve Letarte was serving his suspension. Former Team Gordon guy Robbie Loomis has been making moves for Petty Enterprises these days, and has brought Mendeering on board to be Crew Chief for Petty driver Bobby Labonte.

You can tell that the King’s men are working feverishly to reclaim Petty glory. They brought Labonte in to pilot Papa Petty’s famed #43 Dodge. Last season, they made yet another Crew Chief change when they brought in Doug Randolph to replace Paul Andrews.  Now we have this move.

As a Labonte fan, I hope it works. I still think Petty still needs to invest in the future by bringing on a promising young driver to groom for NASCAR glory, perhaps to drive Kyle’s car (c’mon Kyle, you know it’s time to go to the booth already).

One thing for sure, Mendeering has learned a thing or two about success in all his years in the Hendrick Motor Sports garage.

The State of The Sport- There’s a lot of banter in the media about fan unrest concerning the sport about which they are so passionate. Some would have you believe that the unrest is so great that the sport is in trouble.

I will need to post very soon as to my own take on the numerous changes that have occurred over the last 4 years or so. I will say no more today than to say that the rumors of NASCAR’s demise are greatly exaggerated. Right now, marketers only rank the NFL ahead of NASCAR as a vehicle to reach upscale (so much for this being a “redneck” sport) males. It’s easy to see that even from an anecdotal perspective, NASCAR is gaining new fans all the time.

Yes, there’s plenty of room for improvement, but the good news (no matter who you are), is that the sport we love so much is very much alive and well. At least the powers that be in NASCAR are for more fan responsive than Major League Baseball, where they live in continual denial about the realities of the viewing public.

Face it folks, no matter how angry you are at Brian France and Mike Helton, you’ll still be there for 2008. Admit it.

Questions About Moves for 2008 Abound- Thank goodness we have a short off-season. There is much water cooler talk about how changes made at the end of the 2007 season will affect 2008. Among other questions:

How will Junior fare at HMS? Was his disastrous 2007 season due to his team, or his driving? Is he really a great driver experiencing bad luck, or is he overrated, thanks to his famous last name?

How will former HMS driver Kyle Busch get along at JGR? The combination of Busch with other strong personalities such as Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin could make for sparks of a good kind or sparks of a bad kind. How will that work? That may depend on…..

How will Toyota fare now that they are affiliated with a major racing team? Toyota haters hate this move, as there are still many that feel a “foreign” (don’t get me started on this now) manufacturer has no business in an American sport. I have to think this move will pan out (The JGR-Toyota marriage). There’s too much at stake for the JGR organization and the Toyota Corporation for this to fail. Still, they have to make it work on the track. If not…..

What will become of Tony Stewart? It’s contract renewal time for Smoke. It’s no secret that struggles at JGR with Toyota would no doubt signal the end of Smoke’s run with Gibbs. Other factors that will play into this is Smoke’s market value (which is very high- who wouldn’t want this successful yet colorful character. Arguably, only Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson are better among veteran drivers). Stewart will want his due. Also, you can’t around GM’s love of Tony and Smoke’s long standing association with Chevrolet. Hmm. Well, let’s just say that winning trumps everything, so we’ll just have to see how this will play out.

How much effect will having open wheelers have at NASCAR’s highest level? If you believe Jerry Bonkowski from yahoo.com, not much. The struggles of Sam Hornish and Dario Franchitti among others demonstrate that even a talented driver can’t just jump into a “stock” car and win. Will Villanueve, Carpentier, and company master the learning curve, or will they become discouraged at return to whence they came? I anticipate a more mixed result- but then, I’m just a fan.

I’m also wondering with great interest where David Stremme, Tony Raines and Jeff Green will land in 2008. I’m also wondering when Brad Coleman, Landon Cassil, Stephen Leicht and Jeffrey Earnhardt will get their Cup break. 

But perhaps the biggest question of them all is: How will we the fans survive until “Speed Week”? I’m working on it, I’m working on it.

Until next week…hang in there. Let me know if you hear anything.

Needless to say, there’s a lot of buzz in NASCAR Nation today over many things that happened on the track yesterday. We had an insanely long rain delay, lots of conversation over the Busch-Earnhardt wreck, Tony and Greg’s “stay out with the damaged fender” snafu, but front and center around the NASCAR water cooler (or maybe it’s a beer keg) is the way this race ended.

When the race ended, I gave no second thought to the idea that the driver of the #16 AFLAC Ford- Greg Biffle- had taken a step towards salvaging his lost season with his 1st win of 2007. Then, came the Jimmie Johnson interview. Johnson contends that Biffle did not maintain “reasonable” speed and that hometown favorite Clint Bowyer won it. Honestly, Bowyer looked a little clueless about the ensuing brouhaha, but the idea of winning in his home state sounded good to him. Naturally, Jeff Gordon chimed in and said the win was not Biffle’s.

There’s speculation that Biffle had run out of gas. Naturally, like those baseball players who swear they’re not on steroids and will gladly test to prove only to back down when the pressure’s on, Biffle offers to start his car on the spot to prove it. Of course, he KNOWS he won’t have to. Yahoo columnist and former NASCAR driver Ricky Craven says he’s certain Biffle was as dry as a Baptist wedding. Bowyer and Johnson will both tell you THEY maintained “reasonable speed”, passed Biffle up and are the rightful winners. For their part, NASCAR officials maintain the field was “frozen” under a yellow caution flag, and that there’s no passing allowed under caution, and under that logic, Biffle wins. End of story where Brian France and company are concerned. That’s where things really get nasty.

I’d hate to be France or Mike Helton being recognized in the grocery store. Some comments I’ve seen on line lead me to believe these two would lose a popularity contest with O.J. Simpson. From NASCAR’s inception, the France family has ruled with an iron hand. I don’t know how it was with Bill Sr. and Bill Jr., but to hear the old schooler tell it, Brian’s gonna kill the sport. I don’t know about that, but I DO know they are their own worst enemies on the P.R. front.

For my part, I don’t generally have a problem with the way NASCAR is run. I know some people would love to throttle me because I am “Pro Chase”, but I think it’s a good thing and its made what would have been a run away title for Jeff Gordon more thrilling. Funny- I don’t hear him complaining. Ah, but back to the grand scheme of things. NASCAR’s leadership shows a responsiveness and willingness to change things if something doesn’t work. Matt Kenseth winning a Cup title with 1 win in 2003 wasn’t good (admit it people), so now we have the Chase. In 4 years, it’s gone from 10 drivers to 12. Other changes like the Lucky Dog and others have come along- some good, some bad (like the top 35 owner points for qualifying, in my opinion). Try chaning rules like this in Major League Baseball. Ha! I think it’s also commendable how they’ve handled the Aaron Fike situation. The NFL wouldn’t have the intestinal fortitude to do that with their guys.

But the willingness to “draw it up in the dirt” or call an audible is what gets these guys in trouble. Part of the reason fans get so upset over this stuff is because the rules are too open for interpretation and they SEEM like they change all the time, giving rise to conspiracy theories (all of which are pure poppycock).

While I maintain that NASCAR’s logic is correct in awarding Biffle the win, I think the real mistake occurred by not ending the race on the 2nd red flag at lap 148. I could have told you the finish to the race was going to be a train reck. It always is! Yes, I know that means the dreaded Tony Stewart would have the win, but he would have won under clean conditions.

This won’t by any means ruin the season. Biffle’s a non-player in the championship and the other two top 3 drivers won’t really be hurt by it. The chase is still fun, and it’s still wide open. I just hope someday that the powers that be at NASCAR would think these scenarios through and have a consistent game plan for them. They can then just fall back on the rule book. This is one good lesson they could learn from the NFL.

Yet, there will always be that one scenario that someone didn’t think of. Like yesterday.

See what you started Juan Pablo?

“The Chase”- to some NASCAR fans, this is a profanity. I hear a lot of people railing against it, yet I have never heard anybody really offer up a well-articulated argument against it. More often than not, I sense that fans who hate NASCAR’s answer to a “playoff” are just using this as one more argument against Brian France and Mike Helton and their governing of NASCAR.

By now you know I have no problem taking up an unpopular opinion. After all, I’m a Jeff Gordon fan- NASCAR’s 2nd most-loved and at the same time, probably the most hated driver in the sport. I suppose if Tony Stewart (according to Gordon) is the “Rosie O’ Donnell of NASCAR”, then The Rainbow Warrior is the “Howard Cosell of NASCAR.” According to a poll in the 1970’s, Cosell was the most popular and the most hated announcer in sports.

I digress. My best guess is the simple fact of the human condition that people hate change. Until 2004, NASCAR ran for some 55 years without a playoff format. Certainly, I’m not aware of any other governing body in auto racing that has a format quite like this.  I think most chase “haters” would say that there are 30+ other drivers on the track that should be accounted for. What if Mr. #13 goes on a tear and would have enough points to win were it not for the chase. It could happen. There are still others who point out that Jeff Gordon would have won the Cup in 2004 were it not for the chase instead of Kurt Busch. Many interesting comparisons of the old format versus the new have been made, and there’s no denying it is different.

“So why do you like it, Jim?” you may ask. I like the idea of a playoff format. Though I root for the #24 Dupont Chevrolet, I’ll admit to being bored if he ran away with it. The chase is NASCAR’s best answer for the best drivers of the year to square off against each other. I mean, you really can’t just have the 12 best do a drag race, can you? Just 12 cars on the track would be boring, and after all, as we saw at Dover, there’s a skill to weaving your way through lapped traffic- just ask Denny Hamlin. It’s a part of racing man! I think it sets a part of a group of the best to square off for the title, just like every other sport does.

Does the team with the best regular season record win the title every year? No. Ask the Seattle Mariners. They won a staggering 116 of 162 games and didn’t even make it to the World Series!  The Yankees were a very good time that got hot at the right time- kind of like Tony Stewart! Are you going to argue that he doesn’t deserve a shot at the title though he didn’t catch fire until late? How would he have any shot at catching Gordon without the Chase? The fact is the season is too long and there are too many factors that go into points. If you ask me, what’s happening in the Busch Series is a good case for the chase. Carl Edwards has made a joke of the run for the title. There’s just no way David Reutimann or Jaons Leffler will have any chance at catching him. Think about the years the wild card team has won the Super Bowl. I can remember one NBA playoff series where the eighth seeded Denver Nuggets completely shocked the number one Seattle Super Sonics.

Maybe I’m all wet, but the chase has been fun for me so far. I personally think it’s a travesty that Matt Kenseth (though I find him likable) won a Cup with only one victory under his belt that year. Something’s goofy with that.  Look at the standings with intellectual honesty. If you look at the wins, and all the finishes, I think the chase standings reflect it well.

Is this a perfect system? No. After years of watching baseball make few good changes for the sake of tradition, it’s refreshing to see a sports governing body with the cajones to try to do things differently to make the sport better. For all you detractors- here’s some good news: if you hate the chase bad enough, and there are enough of you, it WILL change.

Now if we can only change the top 35 owner points rules for qualifying, then we’re on to something.

SHAMELESS PLUG: If you want a great explanation of how points are scored in NASCAR, check out Charle’s NASCAR 411 update at “nascarlfordummies.” Very nicely done.