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(A Special Weekly Edition Prepared for NASCAR_Nation)

I should take the week off……but I won’t. I’ll keep it a little more brief, but the occasion gives me opportunity to weigh in on trends as we make our way into Turn One of the 2008 season.

Biggest surprise- For me, it’s not Junior, I expected improvement. It’s not Toyota’s performance, you may remember I predicted that. It’s Richard Childress Racing. I had been dissing on them after their late 2007 collapse in the Chase. Kevin Harvick has been remarkably consistent, Jeff Burton is our most recent winner (plus he’s posting an average finish of 8.2), and Clint Bowyer has flashes of true racing brilliance. The tire strategy at Bristol was a HUGE gamble- and they made it work.

Biggest disappointment- It’s not Jeff or Jimmie. I’m predicting no 3-peat for J.J., and I stand my forecast that Gordon will not make the Chase. For me, the biggest disappointment has to be…..The Open Wheel Invasion. I support their presence in NASCAR, but man I didn’t think we’d see Jacques Villenueve and A.J. Allmendinger without rides, or Dario Franchitti as a “go or go homer.” Sam Hornish is hanging on, and Patrick Carpentier can’t get in a race. Reed Sorenson isn’t fulfilling his potential either.

In my opinion, things are better in NASCAR in 2008. Our first 5 races have produced 4 different winners from 4 different makes from 4 different teams. In doesn’t get much more even than that.

Did anyone really think (outside his legion of fans) that Junior would be Hendrick’s Top Driver statistically?
Rock Solid Shops- Joe Gibbs has brought respectability to Toyota. Richard Childress is solid to to bottom (imagine Bowyer being your #3 driver). Roush-Fenway has three drivers running solid, with a 4th showing signs of promise. Penske and Gillett Evernham are getting their money’s worth from Ryan Newman and Kasey Kahne.

Hanging On- Richard Petty Enterprises looks to be in rough shape. Yates Racing can’t get a sponsor for Travis Kvapil. Bill Davis and the Wood Brothers appear to be on life support.

Did anyone really believe that DEI would be doing as well as they are? Martin Truex is looking pretty good and so is the Martin/Almirola Show in the #8.
T.V. Ratings Are Up
Crashing Out Is DownI’m not ready to say that this is a great year, but NASCAR seems to have something for 2008.

Now get out there and enjoy some spring air. Oh yeah, enjoy the Nationwide race in Nashville.

I’ve got to hand it to this team, it takes a lot to become more unpopular as a team than Hendrick Motorsports, but Teresa Earnhardt achieved this dubious distinction by letting her step- son, Dale Earnhardt Junior leave the organization that her late husband built for his son.

The good news is that time will be kind to both parties on Junior’s departure. DEI is one of several race teams enduring a competitive down turn. It is my opinion that it will take some time for DEI to get their chops up. This makes for a good place for promising young drivers to grow, and for veteran drivers to lend their experience to help groom the youngsters.

That chemistry is in place with the current line up. 49 year old Mark Martin is in his second year of running a reduced schedule. DEI was the beneficiary of the veteran’s racing prowess when Bobby Ginn could o longer keep up competitively with the NASCAR powerhouses and merged with DEI. Running 26 of 36 race, Martin won’t be able to capture the Cup title that has eluded him during his illustrious career that has included 47 Busch series wins and 35 victories at the NASCAR’s top level. When Martin isn’t running, Joe Gibbs cast-off Aric Almirola will take over the #8 ride. Many feel the youngster of Cuban descent has a great career ahead of him and will be a good fit on a team that features other such young studs as Martin Truex Junior and Paul Menard.

Truex put himself on the map with his first career Cup win in 2007 and successful run to make the Chase. During the Chase, Truex got lost in the brightening glow of fellow newbie Clint Bowyer, but considering all the many mechanical problems DEI had, it’s really amazing that Truex made it at all. The New Jersey native looks like the real deal and one who will greatly benefit from Martin’s low key and calm demeanor.

The same is true for Paul Menard. He’s still seeking his first Cup win, but has had enough strong runs to lead one to believe he’s not far away. Like Truex, Menard tends to make the mistakes typical of a fledgling driver and again, this is where Martin’s leadership will help.

Because of Dale Jr.’s popularity, many NASCAR fans will never see the forest for the trees and they will likely hate her as long as she lives. But you know what? She can’t help Junior win right now. The move to HMS is a win for him, and a win for DEI as they will now have the opportunity to build a quality organization apart from the pressure of trying to further the career of NASCAR’s most popular driver.

The key will be capitalizing on the racing brains that exist in the organization. Teresa’s not a racer or engineer or crew chief. She’s a shrewd business woman.

The late, great Dale knew that….that’s why she’s here. After she moves on to further success and so does Junior, this will just be footnote in NASCAR history.

Time will prove me right.

There was some serious running going on at Texas Motor Speedway. The NASCAR Nextel Cup boys were pushing 200 mile per hour, and a good many of them ran good enough on the first lap they said "Forget it!" about a second.

Our current crop of NASCAR drivers are pretty impressive, from the old pros like Bill Elliott and Mark Martin, to the "young guns"- fresh faces who are new the scene, such as  Juan Pablo Montoya and David Ragan. Today, none looked more impressive to me than a pair of guys who look less like the traditional NASCAR driver: southern Californian Toyota driver A.J. Allmendinger and New Jersey’s own Martin Truex.

While most followers of the DEI team are following the trials and tribulations of Dale Earnhardt Jr., another guy in their shop, Martin Truex has been steadily building his NASCAR resume. The former Busch Series champ has not only notched his first career win (in June at Dover), he has also made some great runs, and enough of those to have made the Chase. The driver of the #1 Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet has been overshadowed by the exploits of Clint Bowyer since the Chase began, but Truex has in many ways been no less impressive. Truex looked like the car to beat late in the Atlanta race before falling victim to the messy affairs at the end. Fans writing obituaries for DEI had better old up a moment, because Truex looks well poised to carry the banner for Teresa Earnhardt and Company. Today, Martin drove the wheels off his car, just enough better than Juan Pablo, Kevin Harvick and some guy named Jeff Gordon to capture the pole. With his performance, alongside veteran Mark Martin and other promising prospects like Paul Menard and Aric Almirola, Dale Earnhardt Incorporated will be just fine.

Allmendinger has just shot off like a rocket these last few races. The former open-wheeler has been running like a demon with that fearlessness the 25 year old Los Gatos native had been so famous for. His reckless abandon is apparent in how he’s driven his car during qualifying the last two weeks in particular. Much has made been, and rightly so, about how Allmendinger has benefited from extra cockpit time running for Chip Ganassi in the Busch Series for the last two months. What we’re seeing now is that his race performances are catching up to his qualifying performances. The folks at Red Bull Racing would sure be happy to see that. From a marketing standpoint, Allmendinger and teammate Brian Vickers seem like fitting images for the organization famous for their energy drink that "gives you wings." These guys are starting to run like like they’re flying low.

There’s been much speculation as to who would get the first win for Toyota in the Nextel Cup Series. At one point in the season, I would have said Vickers. Then there’s been other occasions where I thought it would be David Reutimann. On the basis of what I’ve seen lately, I am now saying it will be A.J. Allmendinger who will do it, long before Tony Stewart and the gang get to try their hand at it in 2008. I’ve got a feeling it could happen this Sunday.

But he’ll have to get past Martin Truex to do it.

(A special post-race edition prepared for letsgoracingfans.com. Also known as shameless cross-promotion).

In preparing for the Pep Boys’ 500, I think Jimmie Johnson and Crew Chief Chad Knauss stole a page from General George Sherman. The driver of the #48 Lowe’s Chevrolet showed tactical brilliance down the stretch to collect his eighth victory of the 2007 campaign, narrowing his defecit to Jeff Gordon down to nine points.

Admit, like me, you had your doubts at times. Kurt Busch looked “scary fast” early on, and after he faded, Martin Truex looked like the guy to beat. For quite some time, it just looked like Johnson and his buddy Jeff Gordon had a lackluster day going. Heck, it looked Junior had a good run going. It says a lot for the Budweiser Chevy driver that he overcame a commitment cone penalty and an unscheduled pit stop to fix bum tire to be in top five position at the end. The DEI boys had GREAT engines today. Once again, Roush- Fenway was well-represented with Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards getting in the mix and playing nice today. But 99% of the race it was the Truex- Busch Show.

You hear a lot from fans about racers getting lucky. Racing is no different than any other sport- if you prepare well, play smart, and put some good weapons in your corner, you’ll get some luck. Plenty of it.

I know a lot fans are bored with HMS dominating the Chase, but what can you do? If you happen to be lucky enough to race against them, learn what they do and imitate it. To me, it’s interesting to see how the top two guys in this year’s chase lay back for about three-quarters of the race, in a middle-of-the-pack but competitive position, and then strike at the end. The only real risk to this strategy is that you might get collected in a slobberknocker with an also-ran. That’s where the luck comes in. Is that what Johnson doing? If he is, he’s not telling. I’ve said it before, I think there’s a little David Pearson influence on HMS.

You need it with all these green-white-checkered finishes. What a mess! I don’t know how you remedy that, but it’s ridiculous how many we’ve had this year.

Call dominance boring if you want. I’m sure said the same thing about the Cowboys, the Celtics, and the Yankees.

Other observations:

Tough Day For The Old School- It was a real bummer to see Mark Martin go down early. He handled his mishap with David Gilliland with his signature class. I was also looking for good things from 6-time AMS winner Bobby Labonte, but he was one of many drivers today with tire troubles.

Juan Pablo Montoya “Bonehead Manuever of The Day” Award- It stinks to run out of gas at the moment Denny Hamlin did. They HAD to be thinking about it. Everybody else was. It’s got to be a bummer when you know your mistake collected a potential winner. This was not a good day for the Gibbs family. Papa Joe’s Redskins got mauled by the Patriots 52-7 (ouch!) and then Smoke has a crap day, to go with this little foible by Hamlin.

The Ryan Newman “Creative Way To Lose” Award- Can somebody explain to me how in the name of Junior Johnson that a wheel comes off a race car in a NASCAR event? What did Junior do in a previous life to end up with this kind of luck? Some of Newmans’ mojo must have rubbed off on him. Poor guy- he had a car quite capable of winning.

Now it’s off to Texas. I don’t know if the Fat Lady has sung yet for the Chasers not named Johnson or Gordon, but I do believe I heard her warming up. Certainly she’s singing a sad swan song over the ruins of Atlanta.

I had this headline picked out two days ago. The boys at NASCAR didn’t disappoint with a track pounding war at Martinsville. A record setting 20 caution flags tell you all you need to know about what happens when you stack up 43 cars on a half-mile track with a championship and pride on the line.

For all intents and purposes, it’s a two horse race to the finish to Nextel glory with teammates and buddies Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon running neck and neck. Gordon led the way early on, but once again, regardless of some good short runs by Kyle Busch, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and even a few moments for Juan Pablo Montoya- one had the feeling that eventually the Lowe’s #48 Chevy would sieze a lead and wouldn’t let go of it. Jimmie and Jeff traded leads and paint, but it was Jimmie Johnson prevailing for win number seven (making J.J. number one in the series for wins in 2007) at Martinsville.

The wrestling match for the 2007 Nextel Cup will continue next week at Atlanta, where Gordon has four wins, Johnson two (including a March 18 this year).

Other observations:

The Pinball Wizards. If this were football, Juan Pablo Montoya and Martin Truex Jr. would be doing serious time in the whirlpool tomorrow. These guys collected more bruises on their cars than a train wreck. If I didn’t know better, I could’ve sworn I heard a collective cheer when Junior gave Montoya a little “love tap” to take the lead. I’d also swear that nearly every wreck in the second half of the race had Truex in the middle of it. If rubbin’s racin’, then Truex and Montoya were racin’ hard.

The Race For Pride. Give credit to Ryan Newman. He’s got nothing to lose, and he’s driving like it. It would be real easy for Rocket to mail it in, but now he has two consecutive top fives to his credit. Junior gave it all he had too. Once again, Lil “E” battled bad equipment, but still put himself in a position to finish well. A tip of the cap also goes to chasers whose title hopes have faded away. I thought Matt Kenseth, Kevin Harvick, Clint Bowyer, among others, raced hard and raced like professionals- though it was less than ideal day. Happy qualified well for this race, and Kenseth had the best finish he’s had in over a month.

Green, white, checkered. Now I am a little tired on this. today was the 6th finish of this type in 2007. I am going wonder out loud if one unintended consequence of the more durable Car of Tomorrow is that perhaps cars that would have been parked in the old days are still out limping along cluttering up the the track at the end. At times- I honestly think there are a few too many guys out there at the end that shouldn’t be. It’s be nice to see a cleaner finish- Pepsi 400 style.

To fans who dislike Jimmie and Jeff, I kinda feel for ya. Yet, let us not forget Clint Bowyer still has a slim shot, and anything can happen.

That’s why we keep watchin’.

It all starts tomorrow campers! The Chase is on beginning at Loudon, New Hampshire. All week long there’s been a load of buzz and speculation on what the final 10 races of the 2007 season hold in store.

I’ve got my swami turban on and heck my opinion counts for no less than Rusty Wallace, so here goes:

1) The primary battle for the Nextel Cup will come down to two teammates from HMS- Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon. My heart’s with Gordon, if I had to bet money, I’d go with Jimmie.

2) Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards will push these guys real hard and should not be counted out. Oh, count Kurt Busch in this group too.

3) This year’s chase will put Martin Truex and Clint Bowyer on the map- so to speak. I had no idea who Truex was when this season started. I do now.

4) I really like Jeff Burton but I just don’t know if he can be better than top 10.

5) Clint Bowyer will win a race before the year’s over.

6) Due to his success this season, Denny Hamlin may steal some more of the young female vote from Kasey Kahne.

7) The Rushville Rocket in the #20 Home Depot Chevy will win one more race in a Chevy before moveing on to Toyota in 2008.

We may end up forgetting that Kevin Harvick is even in the Chase. Still a good racer though. Same for Matt Kenseth.

9) Dale Earnhardt, Jr. will still keep stealing the spotlight away from the Chase. Not his fault. He will win a race before this year’s over. Could be at Mardi Gras, I mean Talledega.

10) Tony may win tomorrow at New Hampshire. He was crazy fast yesterday. Big Shrub and Jimmie may have something for him.

11) A Toyota will win one race before it’s over in 2007- thanks to either Brian Vickers or David “The Beak” Reutimann.

12) And the winner of the 2007 Nextel Cup is………Jimmie Johnson in a repeat.

It’s chase time! This is new to me. I find a lot of old school NASCAR fans who really hate the idea, but on first glance, I like it. Think about it, up until the finish of the Chevy Rock ‘n’ Roll 400, Jeff Gordon was cruising along with a nice, fat lead. Suddenly, on the basis of wins, Jimmie Johnson is suddenly ahead of him, and from here on out, I don’t think the Rainbow Warrior will be mailing it in.
I’m looking forward to wide open crazy racing over the last 10 of 2007- ya know, the kind of racing we saw on the final laps of last night’s race at Richmond. It was cool to see the likes of Junior, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson going toe-to-toe. In the field, we have:

Jimmie Johnson, #48 Lowe’s Chevrolet. He’s behaving like a guy who wants a repeat of 2006. Week after week, he’s a contender. Johnson had a mid-season slump, but he’s sure running right now.

Jeff Gordon, #24 Du Pont Chevrolet.. My personal favorite. A 5th Nextel Cup seems like a fitting finish for a guy who just became a dad, and has been behaving like a real leader out there. All you folks who have been labeling Gordon a whiner must admit he has been vocal in his praise of other winning drivers, and he’s taken responsiblity for the mistakes he’s made. Gordon’s first four Cups came from 1995, 1997, 1998 & 2001.

Tony Stewart, #20 Home Depot Chevrolet. Smoke’s recent performance has done nothing to tarnish his image as a strong second half driver. With his recent wins (especially at his beloved Indianapolis) and strong finishes, all the conterversy seems to have faded into the past. He’s going great, just when he needs to. Smoke has two Cups to his credit from 2002 & 2005.

Kurt Busch, #2 Miller Lite Dodge. The big blue beer can has just been flying as of late. Was he unstoppable at Pocono and Michigan, or what? It’s been a slight surprise to see him kind of back away at the end of the last two races. No doubt, he’s represented Penske and Dodge well. “Big Shrub” is looking for Nextel Cup number two, winning his first in 2004.

Carl Edwards, #99 Office Depot Ford. The King of Concrete is sure to win at least one title this year. As far as I’m concerned, the mockery he’s made of the point standings in the NASCAR Busch Series makes a case for the chase. As good as he is, it’s easy to forget he’s a young guy, and this is only his second chase. It might be kinda cool to see a back flip in response to a 2007 Nextel Cup presentation.

Kyle Busch, #5 Kellogg’s Chevrolet. By no less than Kyle Petty (who’s probably seen a race or two), “Little Shrub” has been called the best young racer in NASCAR today. He definitely reinforced the notion with a dominating performance in the Busch race at Richmond Friday night. For Kyle, a Nextel Cup title would be a fitting swan song for the Hendrick Motorsports driver headed next year to the Joe Gibbs’ Racing team.

Denny Hamlin, #11 Fed Ex Chevrolet. Denny has done nothing but make noise (99% positive noise) since coming on board in 2006. He’s been racking up wins here and there, and along with Tony Stewart, gives JGR a powerful 1-2 punch. Don’t count him out. His chase opponents sure aren’t.

Martin Truex, Jr., #1 Bass Pro Chevrolet. Thanks to Truex, Dale Earnhardt Inc. has representaion in the Chase. He hasn’t been around all that long, but don’t forget he was a two-time (2004 & 2005) winner of the Busch Series title not all that long ago. A Cup would sure cement Truex as a leader at DEI.

Matt Kenseth, #17 De Walt Ford. The 2003 winner of the Nextel Cup has flown under the radar this year. It seems like the only time I hear much about him is when he’s complaining about how his car is running. But, by golly, here he is. He does have one victory to his credit (the 1st race at Fontana this year), and his appearance among the list is testament to his consistency.

Jeff Burton, #31 AT&T Chevrolet. J.B. is one of three Richard Childress Racing drivers in the chase. He’s had some real ups and downs, but somehow, he’s here. The victory at Texas was a great moment for the pride of South Boston, Virginia in 2007.

Kevin Harvick, #29 Pennzoil Chevrolet. The 2nd member of the RCR team in the chase. Kevin had to race smartly last night to weave his way in. The winner of the Daytona 500 and All-Star Weekend managed to thread the needle on what seemed like every crash. There must have been some nervous moments when he had all that grass caught in his grill, but “Happy Harv” made it through.

Clint Bowyer, #07 Jack Daniels Chevrolet. If you’ve read articles or seen stories about him, you know this guy could easily be the face of NASCAR. The Kansan has a certain middle-American charm, and he is a car guy through and through- complete with an oval track in his back yard- something to do when he’s not restoring cars. It’s hard to believe that as good as Bowyer is, he hasn’t won anything at this level yet.

This is a very impressive field. I think that due to consistency- you have to rate Stewart, Gordon, Johnson and maybe even Hamlin as favorite to take it. The Busch Brothers, Edwards, Kenseth and Truex are racers poised to pounce should the favorites fall off, and goodness knows they could. The 2007 road has had it share of potholes for Bowyer, Harvick and Burton , but there’s a reason races are run on tracks and not paper.

This will be a good one. Stick around.