Bump-Drafts.com

(A Special Weekly Edition Prepared for NASCAR_Nation)

I should take the week off……but I won’t. I’ll keep it a little more brief, but the occasion gives me opportunity to weigh in on trends as we make our way into Turn One of the 2008 season.

Biggest surprise- For me, it’s not Junior, I expected improvement. It’s not Toyota’s performance, you may remember I predicted that. It’s Richard Childress Racing. I had been dissing on them after their late 2007 collapse in the Chase. Kevin Harvick has been remarkably consistent, Jeff Burton is our most recent winner (plus he’s posting an average finish of 8.2), and Clint Bowyer has flashes of true racing brilliance. The tire strategy at Bristol was a HUGE gamble- and they made it work.

Biggest disappointment- It’s not Jeff or Jimmie. I’m predicting no 3-peat for J.J., and I stand my forecast that Gordon will not make the Chase. For me, the biggest disappointment has to be…..The Open Wheel Invasion. I support their presence in NASCAR, but man I didn’t think we’d see Jacques Villenueve and A.J. Allmendinger without rides, or Dario Franchitti as a “go or go homer.” Sam Hornish is hanging on, and Patrick Carpentier can’t get in a race. Reed Sorenson isn’t fulfilling his potential either.

In my opinion, things are better in NASCAR in 2008. Our first 5 races have produced 4 different winners from 4 different makes from 4 different teams. In doesn’t get much more even than that.

Did anyone really think (outside his legion of fans) that Junior would be Hendrick’s Top Driver statistically?
Rock Solid Shops- Joe Gibbs has brought respectability to Toyota. Richard Childress is solid to to bottom (imagine Bowyer being your #3 driver). Roush-Fenway has three drivers running solid, with a 4th showing signs of promise. Penske and Gillett Evernham are getting their money’s worth from Ryan Newman and Kasey Kahne.

Hanging On- Richard Petty Enterprises looks to be in rough shape. Yates Racing can’t get a sponsor for Travis Kvapil. Bill Davis and the Wood Brothers appear to be on life support.

Did anyone really believe that DEI would be doing as well as they are? Martin Truex is looking pretty good and so is the Martin/Almirola Show in the #8.
T.V. Ratings Are Up
Crashing Out Is DownI’m not ready to say that this is a great year, but NASCAR seems to have something for 2008.

Now get out there and enjoy some spring air. Oh yeah, enjoy the Nationwide race in Nashville.

(A Special Weekly Post Prepared for letsgoracingfans.com)

1954. Dwight Eisenhower was President, the Dodgers were still in Brooklyn, gas cost about a dime a gallon and Tim Flock set a NASCAR record by winning 18 Cup races. That year, Al Keller won a race in Linden, New Jersey in a Jaguar- the last time a foreign name plate won a race at stock car racing’s highest level.

Fast forward to 1995. Bill Clinton was President, Brett Favre won his first NFL MVP award, and gas cost about half (or less) of what it does today. That year, on March 12, Jeffrey Michael Gordon won his first race at AMS at the age of 23 years, 7 months, and 8 days.

On March 9, 2008, Kyle Busch wrote his name in the NASCAR history books. At a track known for its close finishes, Busch the Younger (also known as “Rowdy” or “Shrub”), pulled away from Tony Stewart and Dale Earnhardt Jr. The win gets Toyota off the snide at NASCAR’s top level, and Busch becomes the youngest winner at Atlanta at 22 years, 10 months, and 7 days (I needed extra fingers and toes to count that one).

It was just a matter of time.

While credit must go to Smoke, Junior, Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle and Clint Bowyer for pushing Busch, he was in control in his very out of control way. Even if he whines, even if he’s overly aggressive, even he ain’t the most angelic face in the NASCAR line-up- give him his due. He knows how to race. Right now, he’s scary fast and crazy consistent.

I would be remiss to ignore the skill of other drivers who overcame long odds to break up front. Smoke gained 30 spots to his second place finish in a car he fought with and tires he hated even more. Matty Kenseth gained 30 pots as well to finish 8th- after starting 38th. Don’t look now, but there’s another promising young Toyota driver making noise, and he doesn’t even race for Joe Gibbs. Brian Vickers started 35th, but ran all the way up to 9th, putting him in the Chase if it began today. Kurt Busch and Casey Mears also quietly finished significantly better than they started.

Jimmie Johnson and Kasey Kahne also deserve props. Johnson took another terrible car and managed to pull off a respectable finish (13th). Another racer would have finished 30th or worse. Kahne overcame a nasty early race spin to pull out a 26th place finish. In the old car, he would have wrecked out. These guys get the Rocky Balboa Award for winning a knock down drag out with their cars.

Speaking of the new car,- wouldn’t you agree that it has its merits? It’s a miracle that Elliott Sadler didn’t go after the first caution, but kept his car out there through THREE mishaps before throwing in the towel. An incredible 41 of 43 drivers finished on a day where the tires were a disaster.

Oh yeah, there’s those doggone tires. If enough guys complain, then maybe they won’t go too hard on Tony Stewart for his post-race diatribe against Goodyear Tires. Bobby Labonte tested at Atlanta back in the Fall- I’d be real interested to hear what he might have to say. As it is, I’m afraid the message will be missed because of the messenger- though his point had some validity. Those were lousy tires.

Kyle Busch has looked like a top 5 driver this year. If he keeps it up, me not only win the Cup title, but the Nationwide and CTS titles too.

(A Weekly Special Edition of Bump-Drafts prepared for letsgoracingfans.com)

You could see the race was effectively over on the last two re-starts. Each time, Carl Edwards-in his #99 Dish Network Ford- took off like a scalded jack rabbit to win the UW-Dodge 400. This makes 6 wins for Team Roush at Las Vegas, to go with a pair of victories each by Jeff Burton and Matt Kenseth, as well as Mark Martin, who took the #6 to Victory Lane back in 1998.

Roush Racing did themselves proud. Not only was Edwards strong, Kenseth looked good up until the Gordon incident at the end, Greg Biffle finished 3rd, and even David Ragan got in on the fun by edging Kasey Kahne out for 6th. Jack Roush must have some magic in his hat that he uses for Vegas, because his teams are good to the point of making you think that somebody at the “Diamond In The Desert” must owe him a favor or two.

I was just sure this was Kyle Busch’s race to lose, in spite of the fact that no one has ever won from the pole at Sin City. The younger Busch made me look like a prophet for a bit until the handling on his car went south on him late in the race. Edwards ran with the #18 M&M’s Toyota all day, first overtaking Shrub on lap 21. By lap 117, Busch surrendered the lead, and although Dale Jr. and Jeff Gordon had good runs- today seemed destined to be a Roush day.

It didn’t look that way at first. Roush driver Jamie Mc Murray almost took flight in the infield after a spin-out and Edwards darn near got penalized for a pit road incident involving a stray tire. Fortunately, crew chief Bob Osborne kept a cool head, stayed on top of officials, and they ultimately ruled in favor of Edwards, blaming a TV camera man for being in the way (Dang media types anyway).

There were a record number of cautions as it seems that NASCAR teams are still figuring out how to work the “new” car at Las Vegas. Accidents cut short the days of Tony Stewart (who bit the wall hard on lap 109) and Robby Gordon (victimized by a lfat tire on lap 144), Patrick Carpentier, DaleJarrett, Kurt Busch, and Scott Riggs.

Speaking of Riggs……it was nice to see some less familiar names up front. I thought the Haas-CNC cars of Scott Riggs and Jeremy Mayfield looked great in stretches, and it was good to see another solid performance by Elliott “Rabbit Release” Sadler. It was also weird seeing Ken Schrader up front, though he gave way later in the race.

It wasn’t a good day for Open Wheelers. Sam Hornish, Patrick Carpentier and Dario Franchitti all saw their best laid plans go up in smoke.

I’m glad Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon weren’t hurt too seriously.Gordon had two words for track owner Bruton Smith concerning the inner wall “Safer Barriers.”

Though it was a bummer to see wrecks mess up otherwise good days, there’s no doubt this race belonged to Edwards. The Columbia, Missouri native was just too much. He and his Roush teammates (Kenseth and Biffle) were easily the most consistent cars out there, with apologies to RCR teammates Jeff Burton and Kevin Harvick, and the HMS combo of Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr.

It just hit me- another random thought- no Jimmie Johnson today. Apparently, Johnson was a victim of Murphy’s Law. Everything that could go wrong apparently did to the #48.

This may not have been the best race I’d ever seen, but it was a good one. Today’s outcome springs forth yet more new story lines in a 2008 season that bears no resemblence to 2007.

Will Carl Edwards make it three in a row, to turn At-lanta into Hot-lanta? I wouldn’t bet against it.

I feel emboldened today. When one considers that predicting a winner for a NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race is a 1 in 43 proposition, I think I can feel good about the fact that my pick for Daytona- Tony Stewart- finished third. Daytona’s a real crap shoot with the need for drafting help, so I’m feeling confident going into Fontana.

Kasey Kahne looks primed for this race. The Enumclaw, Washington native was one of six Dodge drivers to make the top 10 at Daytona. On top of that, Kahne has tested well at the southern California track in the pre-season. Kahne has two wins at California with Cup victory, a Nationwide victory and a pole.

If you take a look at Kahne’s career numbers, you also can’t help but notice that the new face of Budweiser in NASCAR has had track record for running well on the intermediate tracks. At the Cup level, the driver of the #9 has wins at Atlanta, Texas, two at Lowe’s, Michigan and Richmond- for a career total of seven.

Kahne will receive some fierce competition. After a rough Daytona, HMS studs Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon will have something for Kahne. Gordon has won here three times and Johnson won here Labor Day weekend. Look for Matt Kenseth to be a factor and my second choice for winning. The #17 has won the last two February events at California. Kenseth also has 3 CS wins at the Nationwide level as does his Roush teammate Greg Biffle.

It will be interesting to see how the results here compare to the season opener. Because like the Larry Gatlin song says “it doesn’t matter at all where you’ve played before, California’s brand new game.” One has to wonder how the Toyotas that did so well at Daytona will do with the restrictor plates off. I’m also sure the Dodge boys want to prove their performance last week was no mirage. Again, it bears noting that a number of Dodge drivers proved quite competitive in testing- not that this means everything.

So we have a confluence of story lines here. You have the history of Roush performance in California, the rise of Toyota, and the recent dominance of of Hendrick Motor Sports- mojo that Dale Jr. would love to make work for him.

Still- at the end of the day- I say Kasey will be raising Kahne in California.

Potential. One definition of potential in the world of sports is “Hasn’t done it yet.” That definition is very fitting for the Gillett Evernham Motorsports crew- a team with abundant talent that has yet to be realized.

It all starts with Ray Evernham. His 3 Cup titles and 47 victories as a crew chief for Jeff Gordon speaks volumes about his briliance as a pit leader and setup guru. That brilliance set Evernham as the spearhead to lead Dodge’s return to NASCAR in 2001 (it should be mentioned that Casey Atwood did register a top 10 with Evernham as owner in one of three starts in 2000). Along the way, Evernham has had the likes of “Awesome”Bill Elliott, Atwood, Jeremy Mayfield, and Scott Riggs driving for him- but perhaps no driver has meant more to what is now known as GEM than Kasey Kahne.

The boyish Washingtonian roared onto the Cup scene in 2004, earning Raybestos Rookie of The Year honors with a 13th place in the Cup standings. After a bum 2005, Kahne rebounded with an impressive 6 victories in 2006 and 19 top 10’s en route to an 8th place finish at season’s end. Kahne’s 2007 frustrations epitomized GEM’s futility in 2007, as Kahne was never really a factor, other than a Busch Series win. A lot of GEM’s problems were obviously program related. Evernham admitted that trying to juggle business (fundraising and sponsorships) with racing proved to be overwhelming. The team was just never that competitive and looked way behind the curve on Car of Tomorrow development.

To be sure, Kahne has fulfilled some of his promise. Seven wins are not chopped liver. Yet a closer look at the number reveals a need for growth from the 27 year old if he wants to be mentioned in the same breath with Gordon and Johnson. All of Kahne’s wins have come at intermediate tracks (Atlanta, Texas, Lowe’s, Michigan- to name a few). He needs to add super speedway prowess and road course mastery to his resume. On top of that, Kahne has a vexing number of DNF’s on his track record. Compare his numbers to Clint Bowyer’s in 2007 and you get my drift.

If it sounds like I’m being harsh, it’s because he’s capable of more. He’s a winner, but he not only needs more support from his owner and he needs to spend less time enjoying the life of a rock star. He’s tested well at Vegas and California, so there is hope.

Another guy fans hope for more from in 2008 is Elliott Sadler. Like Kahne, Sadler has a following- yet at the rate he’s going, he’s destined to become another Michael Waltrip or Kenny Wallace- a popular guy due more to personality than actual performance. Sadler hasn’t visited victory lane since 2004, when he raced for Robert Yates. Quick- name a race where he was really in contention in 2007. Can’t think of one? I think there’s a reason for that. Here’s hoping the partnership with Gillett will enable Ray Evernham to provide better support for the likes of Kahne and Sadler. They deserve better.

One area where GEM is not left out is in the foreign intrigue department. Scott Riggs is out as the driver of the #10 Dodge and Canadian Patrick Carpentier takes over. So far, the best you can say about Carpentier is that he hasn’t angered established drivers by wrecking them- which puts him ahead of say, Dario Franchitti. If nothing else, Carpentier’s development will help draw attention to Gillett Evernham if winning can’t.

What we have right now is not the notoriety a team really wants: an owner more famous for being the boyfriend of a female racer (Evernham and Erin Crocker have been an item for a while now), a star driver more famous for his commercials fleeing crazed soccer moms, a journeyman driver who’s also more famous for his popularity among women and for his one time promise as a basketball player, and a rookie more famous for being a part of the open wheel mass defection to NASCAR.

These guys are better than that. I think.

It all starts tomorrow campers! The Chase is on beginning at Loudon, New Hampshire. All week long there’s been a load of buzz and speculation on what the final 10 races of the 2007 season hold in store.

I’ve got my swami turban on and heck my opinion counts for no less than Rusty Wallace, so here goes:

1) The primary battle for the Nextel Cup will come down to two teammates from HMS- Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon. My heart’s with Gordon, if I had to bet money, I’d go with Jimmie.

2) Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards will push these guys real hard and should not be counted out. Oh, count Kurt Busch in this group too.

3) This year’s chase will put Martin Truex and Clint Bowyer on the map- so to speak. I had no idea who Truex was when this season started. I do now.

4) I really like Jeff Burton but I just don’t know if he can be better than top 10.

5) Clint Bowyer will win a race before the year’s over.

6) Due to his success this season, Denny Hamlin may steal some more of the young female vote from Kasey Kahne.

7) The Rushville Rocket in the #20 Home Depot Chevy will win one more race in a Chevy before moveing on to Toyota in 2008.

We may end up forgetting that Kevin Harvick is even in the Chase. Still a good racer though. Same for Matt Kenseth.

9) Dale Earnhardt, Jr. will still keep stealing the spotlight away from the Chase. Not his fault. He will win a race before this year’s over. Could be at Mardi Gras, I mean Talledega.

10) Tony may win tomorrow at New Hampshire. He was crazy fast yesterday. Big Shrub and Jimmie may have something for him.

11) A Toyota will win one race before it’s over in 2007- thanks to either Brian Vickers or David “The Beak” Reutimann.

12) And the winner of the 2007 Nextel Cup is………Jimmie Johnson in a repeat.