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The big day Toyota is waiting for is about to arrive. They’ve come close in the first two races of the season to picking up their first Sprint Cup victory, and after being a bridesmaid for two weeks, they’ll finally be a bride, thanks to the driving of one of their new additions, courtesy of Joe Gibbs Racing.

Shrub has two factors working for him. First of all, he’s racing harder than anyone I’ve ever seen. Have you noticed how sideways he gets in the turns? He looks like he’s doing a power slide on a dirt track! It’s very early in the year, but the younger Busch getting a handle on how to be aggressive without hitting people. No less than Mark Martin has said that Kyle Busch is in a zone, something Martin says he recognizes because HE’s been there.

Secondly, Toyota is primed for a win. Love Toyota or hate Toyota, you would have to agree that the manufacturer has a very stout engine this year (about the only thing that really seperates the makes with the “new” car). If Busch doesn’t get Toyota a win this week- Smoke, Hamlin or even David Reutimann will get them one soon. It’s just a matter of time. Heck, even Mike Skinner put up a good qualifying time.

Many of the usual suspects will be primed to make a run at Busch and are also likely candidates to win at Sin City. I look for good races from Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, the resurging Kasey Kahne, or outside pole Carl Edwards.

The weather forecast looks good. I’m just hoping for a better event than last weekend.

I feel emboldened today. When one considers that predicting a winner for a NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race is a 1 in 43 proposition, I think I can feel good about the fact that my pick for Daytona- Tony Stewart- finished third. Daytona’s a real crap shoot with the need for drafting help, so I’m feeling confident going into Fontana.

Kasey Kahne looks primed for this race. The Enumclaw, Washington native was one of six Dodge drivers to make the top 10 at Daytona. On top of that, Kahne has tested well at the southern California track in the pre-season. Kahne has two wins at California with Cup victory, a Nationwide victory and a pole.

If you take a look at Kahne’s career numbers, you also can’t help but notice that the new face of Budweiser in NASCAR has had track record for running well on the intermediate tracks. At the Cup level, the driver of the #9 has wins at Atlanta, Texas, two at Lowe’s, Michigan and Richmond- for a career total of seven.

Kahne will receive some fierce competition. After a rough Daytona, HMS studs Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon will have something for Kahne. Gordon has won here three times and Johnson won here Labor Day weekend. Look for Matt Kenseth to be a factor and my second choice for winning. The #17 has won the last two February events at California. Kenseth also has 3 CS wins at the Nationwide level as does his Roush teammate Greg Biffle.

It will be interesting to see how the results here compare to the season opener. Because like the Larry Gatlin song says “it doesn’t matter at all where you’ve played before, California’s brand new game.” One has to wonder how the Toyotas that did so well at Daytona will do with the restrictor plates off. I’m also sure the Dodge boys want to prove their performance last week was no mirage. Again, it bears noting that a number of Dodge drivers proved quite competitive in testing- not that this means everything.

So we have a confluence of story lines here. You have the history of Roush performance in California, the rise of Toyota, and the recent dominance of of Hendrick Motor Sports- mojo that Dale Jr. would love to make work for him.

Still- at the end of the day- I say Kasey will be raising Kahne in California.

Junior Nation will either bummed or upset when I say this, but Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s dominance this week will come to an end tomorrow when Tony Stewart wins the Daytona 500. The planets are aligned and he won’t be denied in picking up his first win at the Super Bowl of NASCAR. My prediction is more than a gut feeling. Here’s why:

1) Team Support- Mark Martin’s demise last year demonstrated how a driver needs help to win at Daytona. Not only has Stewart been running well this week, Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin are also looking good. Joe Gibbs Racing is on its game, and Stewart will have no less than two drivers helping him. Auto racing becomes more of an individual thing once the green flags drops, but you gotta know if a driver can;t win it for himself, he’ll be more than happy to give a little love to a teammate in the draft.

2) Toyota Engines- According to a report on Fox Sports Radio this morning, Toyota has provided great engines for Daytona, running a couple of extra hundred RPMs over the others. We’re talking about the kind of power that shave a couple of tenths of a second off of a lap, and that will be critical in a field that is EXTREMELY competitive.

3) Tony’s Head Is Right- Stewart is a heart on the sleeve kind of guy, and he’s just looking very at home at NASCAR’s premier track. You could just see him messing around yesterday- smiling and changing his hats every 5 minutes. The Rushville Rocket also looks loose in interviews. Compare that to the rough stretches that he last year where he said driving wasn’t fun anymore.

As I post this, Tony is running out front in the Nationwide Camping World 300. His teammates are also running in the top 10.

The Hendrick boys- especially Johnson and Earnhardt- will be around to push the Gibbs team- but in the end, the Big Orange will be looking for some prime fence to climb at the Daytona 500.