2010 Predictions, And Yes I Am Calling For Five In A Row

“Statistically there is no way Jimmie Johnson can win the title again. He is good. The team is good. He has everything. But the odds are not there. He is not going to do it.”

I said those words a year ago. I have learned my lesson.

We look at the past and try to predict the future. There are valuable lessons taught by observing. Like paying attention to last year’s prediction.

In another way the past means nothing. Wherever someone finished in last week’s race has nothing to do with this week’s race, same for a championship.

Yet there are no adverse situations that have occurred to weaken the Hendrick team’s vice-like grip on the Sprint Cup. Somebody has to show me they can play The Chase better. So far no one has.

Sprint Cup Chasers: Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin, Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Mark Martin, Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Juan Pablo Montoya, Tony Stewart, Ryan Newman, Greg Biffle.

Sprint Cup Champion: Jimmie Johnson.

Nationwide Champion: Carl Edwards. There are less Cup teams fielding full-time efforts. Look for more Nationwide-only teams to flex some muscle.

Truck Series Champion: Mike Skinner. Ron Hornaday’s loss of Rick Ren as crew chief will show a chink in KHI’s armor.

Modified Champion: Ted Christopher. His equipment will now be kept in his own shop and maintained under his eye. This is a change from him just showing up at the track to drive. I see this as a plus.

Southern Modified Champion: Burt Myers. The past few Tour and Bowman Gray Stadium titles have slipped through his fingers. A new Troyer chassis is being readied. The title winner from 2009, George Brunnhoelzl III, will be running full time on the Northern Modified Tour. This season Myers claims the crown.

East Series Champion: Ryan Truex. Michael Waltrip Racing fielded top-notch equipment for him last season. With his experience and a Cup team’s support, this series’ trophy will go back to Martin’s little brother for the second year in a row.

West Series Champion: Paulie Harraka. A fourth place finish in his rookie year means strength. With momentum of his strong initial season look for him to leap frog to the head of the class.

Canadian Series Champion: DJ Kennington. He must be tired of seeing the back bumper of Andrew Ranger’s car. Kennington will find the added power to better his second place points finish by one spot.

Mexico Series Champion: Jorge Goeters. See Kennington’s description above. Sometimes you get a feeling about a strong runner waiting in the wings. Goeters will raise the trophy.

Biggest Surprise: Jamie McMurray will bring EGR’s number one back to winner’s circle.

Biggest Disappointment: Roush Racing. The blue oval’s flagship team loses another step as it tries to prop up the Yates/Petty merger.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: He will have a Kyle Busch 2009 type of year. Nobody is more eager to put last season in the rearview mirror. Three other championship caliber teams come from Hendrick Motorsports. He is the lone wolf. I expect him to visit victory lane on more than one occasion and be fast week to week. But I also expect consistency to make The Chase to be lacking. Early 2011 prediction: wins, Chase, and title contention. But you just can’t make up that kind of ground in one season.

Another Early 2011 Prediction: Joey Logano will make the Chase, but not 2010. His career is still too young. I foresee improvement, but not to the top twelve yet.

Danica Patrick: No prediction. I have written about her before. Let’s not shoot a dead horse. Instead, let’s just she how she does and give her a fair shake. I hope everyone that is watching and is involved realizes that it takes years to get the hang of these cars. She has a schedule, sponsorship and is here.

ARCA 200 on SPEED: Could be the channel’s highest rated broadcast ever. Patrick’s stock car debut will attract non-racing media as well as the regular scribes. If the race weren’t during Super Bowl weekend, the hype would be that much greater.

First Team Shakeup: David Ragan. If he gets out of the gate like much of 2009 then some people will be moved around before Charlotte.

Hottest Potential Free Agents: Kasey Kahne and Kevin Harvick. On track performance will determine if these two stay where they are beyond this year. If they are not happy expect some owners to make a run at these two talents.

Biggest Threat To Johnson: Denny Hamlin. He had a lot of power in the Chase but couldn’t close the deal when checkers were waving. He will close the deal on many Sundays and breathe down JJ’s neck through Homestead.

Brad Keselowski: Will further demonstrate why Roger Penske hired him. To win races and not make friends.

Next First Time Winner: A.J. Allmendinger. The Richard Petty Motorsports driver showed flashes of brilliance and improvement over the last three years. Now he becomes a big story with an upset win.

(Patrick Reynolds is a former NASCAR team mechanic and host of the One and Done auto racing talk show Tuesday at 11am ET on www.wsicweb.com)