As we gear up for the 2010 season, it seems everyone has their ideas about who the big breakout driver will be for 2010. I think there will be several drivers making strides forward. I look for Marcos Ambrose to maybe even pick up a win or two, I see good things in store MWR teammates David Reutimann and Martin Truex. I even see Denny Hamlin making another big step forward to being a serious title contender. But of all the movers in 2010, I am watching Joey Logano with great interest.
The thing that impresses me the most about the much-ballyooed 19-year-old is what a quick study he seems to be. In both the Nationwide Series and in Cup, Logano made quick leaps forward. In the first six weeks of the season, it was a baptism by fire- with “Sliced Bread” (my kingdom for a better nickname) finishing dead last, and a series of weak runs in March and early April. I even remember one blogger already had the nerve to label young Logano a bust. Whoa, not so fast, cowboy!
After finishing 21st at Phoenix, Logano posted a top ten at Talladega, a top twenty at Richmond, a top ten at Darlington, among other solid runs that climaxed with his first (and admittedly lucky) career win at New Hampshire. As the season progressed, Logano went from near go or go homer to 20th in the standings. One win, three top fives and seven top tens is not a bad first season’s work and the rookie finished ahead of veterans like Jamie Mc Murray, Martin Truex and Bobby Labonte, and some red-headed dude named Earnhardt.
While I’m not yet convinced he’ll make the 2010, I do think he could make a good run at it, and maybe even make it if some veterans falter. I think a finish inside the top 15 with a win or two is perfectly attainable for the youngster.
Mark Martin saw it, Donnie Allison sees it, so who am I to argue? The kid is alright, and in this observer’s opinion, he’s shown he has what it takes.
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I think there’s also a chance of the Sophomore Jinx for Logano, too. I look for him to struggle in his second full season in Cup. Couple the jinx with the internal power struggle that’ll be coming to a head at Gibbs with Busch, Hamlin, and now Logano all having competitive equipment, the fight for who’ll be team leader, the number 1, will naturally spill over and affect race finishing results…
The guys I’m looking at are Truex, Bowyer, Newman, and Keselowski.
Truex needs to make an early statement at MWR, nail some top fives, maybe a win in the first half of the season.
Bowyer and Newman need a comeback season, a win, good finishes for the respective teams.
Keselowski is a wildcard. He could be good or look like Hornish. If he’s competitive then it might upset the balance of Penske’s pecking order and ultimately team chemistry and their chances to get into the Chase.
Other names to add into the mix: Jeff Gordon, Stewart, and Earnhardt.
I think Gordon has had enough of the Jimmy Johnson and Mark Martin show, I think he’s going to start really fighting to regain his status as the “number 1″ at Hendrick.
The question about Stewart will be whether or not the sustain last seasons results–will they run competitively again, etc?
And then there’s Earnhardt, it’s a make or break year for him.
Here’s my prediction:
Earnhardt, Gordon, and Stewart fight it out for the victory at the Daytona 500. Keselowski and Truex might surprise.
Marcos Ambrose gets a win by summer.
Truex gets a win.
Bowyer might surprise and go on a winning streak and nail down three wins in five races.
I think 2010 will be a surprise filled season.
@JJ. Very interesting observations. Could be. I sure hope this will be a fun season. I enjoyed 2009 for the most part until Jimmie pulled away down the stretch. At the same time, I had give props for his history making efforts.
2009 was a competitive season, I mean this isn’t the stick and ball sports where league management tries to level the playing field (well, okay, Nascar does manipulate the season as much as they can, but all things being equal, unless Nascar starts punishing winning teams by forcing them to start races two laps down then the very good teams–the Hendricks and Gibbs of the racing world–are still going to dominate) the cream is still going to rise to the top.
I think in Jimmy Johnson’s case, he and Knaus (and he’s every bit as responsible for teams wins as the driver is) are dialed in right now. They’ve got the funding, the talent, etc to win consistently. These things happen–dominating teams have been in Nascar before, so what Johnson, et al are doing isn’t surprising.
What’s going to be interesting is how long will they keep it up. Like other sports, everyone else in Nascar will be gunning for them, they’ll try and take key personnel, etc. Then, of course, it’ll become a question of how long their personal chemistry can hang together and what will happen when each (if they do) questions whether or not they could achieve success without the other. That’s happened in Nascar and other sports as well.
I’m not sure what, if anything at all, even if Nascar tweaks the Chase points format (something to lessen the individual races impact and almost guarantee that the last Chase race tightens up the race to make or break the drivers in the championship hunt), can change one driver from breaking out and dominating the Chase.
One more thing about drivers who might impact the upcoming season, I think Montoya needs to win early, otherwise it might prove last season was a sort of fluke.
Same with Martin. Was last year a rebirth or just a last gasp of energy? That’s the big question, I think.
You can add Vickers to the question of flash or fluke? Win early it ends the speculation, don’t and the question still remains.
And then, of course, there’s the entire Roush team–can they bounce back or will their slide continue? I’m thinking that it’ll be a mixed bag, some good finishes, maybe a win or two, no dominance.
I also think there’ll be some surprises as far as driver changes, somebody who seems secure in their ride will switch teams, maybe others, too.
All-in-all I think 2010 will be a fun season.
well..the way nascar is shutting out new comers to nascar with all this dang top 35 and S%P crap..logano may be the last great rookie for a while..and as such i hope he does well in his second year so hopefully other rookies will get a shot..now i’m all for tradition..but it starts to irk me with some over the hills and nobodies filling a seat for 6-10 laps taking up spots on the track that could be better used by legit up and comers..and logano is a dying breed in this corporate “whats a fan..we only know what sponsors are” nascar..go for it logano..have a good season :)
Now that JJ’s going to be a father, maybe he’ll suffer the same downward spiral Gordon did. One can only hope.