Sooner or later, it happens to the best. Even the brightest stars in the NASCAR universe dim- if only for a while. Sometimes it’s age, sometimes the passion fades, in some cases the team lets the driver down, and in other cases, it’s just a run of bad luck.
In days of yore, the old school guys could keep up the dominance for years. Richard Petty rocked the 60s and 70s, Darrell Waltrip took front and center throughout the late 70s and early 80s, Cale Yarborough won three straight points titles in the 70s and Dale Earnhardt practically owned the late 80s and early 90s, with some strong competition ever at his heels.
Whatever Petty wasn’t winning in the late 60s, David Pearson was. One can only wonder what running fulltime consistently would have done for the Silver Fox’s stats. The nomadic Bobby Allison didn’t always enjoy a stable situation for team, but in the early 70s and at the end of that decade, there were few better.
No matter how you look at it though, there eventually comes a time when a driver’s fortunes, passions or ingenuity run out of gas. It’s hard to believe at this moment, but there will come a time when Jimmie Johnson’s mojo stops working. The question then becomes one of not “if,” but “who,” will be ready to knock the king off the hill? Who has the best shot at it?
With what we know today, here are the possibilities:
Jeff Gordon
He could: …because he had an incredible consistency in 2009. Just about every week, the “24” was in a position to win. This team never really slumped, its has all the advantages its championship teammate has, and it’s got somebody who’s been there.
Maybe not: …one victory for the season, and make that one in the last two seasons, suggests a difficulty in closing the deal. Some critics fault the crew chief, Steve Letarte. Some opine that if you can win a title with Robbie Loomis as crew chief, you can win with anybody (not my opinion, but I’ve heard it).
His chances: Excellent.
Tony Stewart
He could: The 2009 success for this guy started in 2008, and every move was gold. Darian Grubb proved true to the task, filling the big shoes of Zippy as Smoke’s pit boss. The Chase fizzle is a bit mystifying, but no matter how you slice it, Year One of Stewart- Haas Racing was a smokin’ success.
Maybe not: Of course, nobody ‘round here believes in conspiracy theories, but some think making a deal (in this case, an alliance) with Rick Hendrick is a bit akin to making a deal with the Devil. Lots of glorious sounding promises, but short on delivery. I don’t buy it, otherwise no reason to think there’ll be a sophomore jinx for the team.
His chances: As good, if not better than Gordon’s.
Mark Martin
He could: Look, I don’t give two hoots about his age. If Martin can do it at 50, he can at 51. It’s not like he’s trying to outrun Troy Polomalu every week, he’s driving a frickin’ race car!…and he does it well. Very well. He danced on the head of a pin to get to the Chase and didn’t miss a step.
Maybe not: Readers like Rachel opine that Martin lacks the killer instinct. He disagrees. Frankly, I don’t think it’s all that big step from number two to number one….unless it’s Jimmie Johnson.
His chances: My only concern is that he doesn’t at some moment in 2010 decide his rekindled passion went out. Otherwise, “The Run For One” is far from done.
Denny Hamlin
He could: He’s talking the talk, and he even walked the walk at the end. D.H. ain’t a kid anymore, and he’s looking poised to takle it up a notch. In the 2009 Chase, he may have fallen in the toilet for a couple of races, but he didn’t wallow there.
Maybe not: This dude is HIGHLY emotional. That can be good, but my concern is he lets it be bad. He has to keep cutting down on mental mistakes, and JGR needs to keep upping their game in terms of equipment. Misses far too many wins due to mechanical failure.
His chances: Very good. If Hamlin stays on the path he’s on, 2010 could get real interesting. I really like the passion if it stays channeled right.
Kyle Busch
He could: Busch was a beast when combining his total body of 2009 work. The dude’s afraid of nothing and his equipment is very good on most days. Busch could race through Hell with gasoline drawers on and make it out the other side.
Maybe not: His feats of derring-do are as likely to net him a 40th place finish as they are first place. Now think about this: when a champion’s car is crap, does he sit around whining about it? I say “No.” You wheel what you’ve got it and keep at it until you get it right. In my humble opinion, the double and triple duty has to stop if Kyle wants to be a real champ.
His chances: They range from good to excellent, depending on his mood. Though I think Steve Addington is an excellent crew chief, the chemistry wasn’t quite there.
Clint Bowyer
He could: After a really nasty mid-season stretch of mediocrity, Bowyer really turned it on down the stretch, as it appeared Richard Childress Racing came back to life. Bowyer clearly has the talent and the racing I.Q. If the car is there, Bowyer is back in the mix.
Maybe not: He needs to close the deal on a more consistent basis to be a real championship contender. Ya gotta have the wins to close the gap.
His chances: Good. If he ended 2009 well, you’d think it would carry over. A solid dark horse pick.
Now….I’m going a little further out on a limb. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
He could: WHAT??? Now hear me out on this. First, who’s equipment does he tool around in? Rick Hendrick’s. Who has loads of resources to back up his commitment to improve Junior in 2010? Rick Hendrick. Who’s got great racing people? Rick Hendrick. Who lit it up early in 2008 and ran a good first 26 races that season? Dale Jr. I don’t care what anybody says, this idea that Lil “E” has no talent is pure horse hockey. That’s just an opinion, but it’s mine.
Maybe not: Mentally, Earnhardt is a “momentum guy.” His first race of 2009 went bad, and quite honestly, from there, I said “this is going to be a long year for this guy.” If he has a 2009 hangover, then I’m thinking a sabbatical is in order- just get away from it all.
His chances: No doubt he’s a long shot. You can argue with merit there are other long shots more worthy of my confidence. At the same time, let’s not forget this guy was once a top five racer. Let the hater’s hate. That’s their problem, not mine.
What? No Roush Fenway guys here? Not at the moment. To go from 11 team wins in 2008 to 3 wins in 2009 suggests this organization went in the ditch, chase or no chase. They’ll turn it around, the question is how quickly.
I wouldn’t rule out the other RCR guys, I just see a little more swagger, a little more fire in Bowyer. Keep your eye on Joey Logano. I think he makes another big stride forward in 2010 and fights for a Chase spot. Marcos Ambrose? David Reutimann? Martin Truex? I’ll watch with intrigue.
What about Montoya, Newman or Busch The Elder? Rocket and JPM need to close the deal with wins. as for Busch, let’s see what changes at crew chief and how things go at Penske.
{ 12 comments… read them below or add one }
dude..if the FR9 turns out to be as awesome as testing has shown..the names that are conspicuous by thier abscence on your little list is Cousin Carl , Robot Matt and DA Biff :P out of those three my pick would prolly be a toss up tween Carl and Matt with Matt maybe pulling a tad ahead due to calm consistency..but my personal fav is the team underdog..DA Biff!!!! go read up on the FR9..its a gamechanger(until nascar tinkers and makes it obsolete cause nascar is inherently anti-ford :D )
Based on some things I’ve heard about the FR9, it’s very well suited to Kasey Kahne’s driving style. So don’t be suprised if he upsets the Hendrick apple cart.
Matt has a point about NA$CAR tinkering with it. If the FR9 proves to be that big of a game changer, you’ll hear Rick Hendrick leading the whining parade to have changes made to turn things back around in his favor. He’s done it in the past any time Ford had an advantage. He did it when the T-Bird was beating the Chevy’s and did it before the Taurus even hit the track.
@Rob
@Mad Man- And you realize that by doing this, NASCAR has us right where they want us….we’ll be watching to see what happens. Yes, I’ve heard about teh FR-9. Good on them. To hear Cousin Carl tell it, that’s whats been missing from his cars: speed.
Magic Bullet, er, magic engine, aside. My pick would be Kyle Busch.(Oh how it hurts me to say it.) If, & when, he ever grows up, & decides that a Cup Championship is a more worthy goal than big numbers in Trucks, & Cup light.
IF, on the other hand he stays a spoiled immature brat. Then we will see only flashes of his talent.
A good measure would be if/when he can consistently face up to an unpleasant interview when things go bad, rather than running away.
All good choices Jim, but I agree with the mad man, don’t count out Kasey Kahne.
Sure, Kyle need maturity. I think that is obvious. But he is not the only driver to whine when things are not going his way. I seriously believe no one whines more than Jeff Gordon and he has been doing it since the Evernham days. “This is the worst car I have ever driven.” Only to end up in Victory Lane. What Kyle needs to do in between the whining is to give some actual good feedback to his crew chief. That is the difference between a 25th place finish and a top ten.
In the Nationwide Series, he seemed to have already learned that the “checkers or wreckers” mentality did not work. He accepted all those second place finishes – not graciously, but he took the points and won the championship. If he does that in Cup racing, he will be a force.
Concerning cuzzin’ Carl,I would have FIRED him a long time ago,yeah he won a few but he tore up a million dollars worth of Fords to do it and him and punk butt Hamlin needs to go to the ring and go three or four rounds and get this smart-ass attitude out of their systems.Dale needs to do one thing and that is just block everything out and “JUST DRIVE” the car,don”t worry about the bar,Danica,or JR .Mtspts.LISTEN To Your Crew Chief!!!!! = Wins
I’ll be watching anyways Jim. Somebody’s got to keep an eye on the clowns in Brian’s Big Top Circus.
Mad Man, I like that. Brian’s Big Top Circus. So true.
I going to go with the 44 in 2010. Go AJ
Hey, I want in on this action. I say Gordon, Stewart, Martin, Edwards, Kenseth, Kahne or Biffle could do it. I would also say Kurt Busch could be a contender. I dont know what leonard has against Carl. I like cousin Carl and think he is a good driver. However I agree with him on Hamlin. He and his equally anoying teammate Kyle Busch would both need to grow up a ton to win a championship. It isn’t just complaining, thay all do that from time to time, it is just there rotten attitude and always throwing thier team under the bus when they don’t win. That would have to change and I just don’t see it happening. I have been outspoken in my dislike of Toyota in Nascar but they have a couple drivers who are the oposite of Hamlin and Busch. I would say Joey Lagono and Marcus Ambrose are the class of that make, and I mean class in two ways. They both earned my respect on and off the track.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Those ‘whose’ equipment, resources and great people have buried Jr. alive at HMS back forty for 2 years. Jr.’s only hope is to go to another team…NOW! Or it will be 3 more years of the same. The first 26 weeks of 2008 he had Darien Grubb on his pit box.