For at least one week, we get the sense the the Chase is not a two-man race. Frankly, rumors of Tony Stewart’s demise have been greatly exaggerated, and guys like Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin and Juan Pablo Montoya are still very much within range of the top. As far as that goes, it may be premature to count Kurt Busch or even Greg Biffle out.
THE BIG 10
#10- Ryan Newman (ranked 8th last week)- There’s been chases where a 22nd place finish, like Newman had at Kansas, wouldn’t hurt you that bad. This season, the competition is stiff enough another week like that could dig Rocket a hole he couldn’t dig out of.
#9- Kasey Kahne (ranked 9th last week)- The hole dug for Kahne at New Hampshire may have proven to be to much for him to get out of, but still, Kahne’s showing a lot of fight. The finishes indicate the speed is there, he just needs the consistency.
#8- Kurt Busch (ranked 4th last week)- That 11th place finish at Kansas isn’t the worst thing in the world, though fans of the Blue Deuce have to hope he can grab a win or a good string of top fives to improve his chances.
#7- Greg Biffle (unranked last week)- Am I overrating Biffle? It’s possible. By the same token, just when you begin to count him out, the Biff shows signs of life (like finishing third at Kansas). He’s actually had a nice solid finishing average of 9.6 over his last ten races. Auto Club has been a good track for Roush- Fenway, but the overall year the team has had is cause for concern.
#6- Denny Hamlin (ranked 6th last week)- Finishing 5th does good things to get D.H. on track after the disaster at Dover. Hamlin’s been hot, his problem is the fact that there’s a handful that are hotter. Auto Club SHOULD be a good track for him.
#5- Jeff Gordon (ranked 5th last week)- After placing second at Kansas, one could argue the Big Daddy deserves a higher ranking. Here’s the thing: Montoya has been just a tick more consistent, while Stewart, Johnson and Martin have actually been WINNING races. Maybe the glow of southern California will shine some sun on the Rainbow Warrior.
#4- Tony Stewart (ranked 7th last week)- The sleeping giant is awake. Martin and Johnson should be thankful they got the early jump on this Chase, because now that Stewart’s back on track, he isn’t going away. I still say the 2009 Chase comes down to Hamlin, Johnson, Martin and Stewart. The best of these may be Smoke.
#3- Juan Pablo Montoya (ranked 3rd last week)- This dude is more persistent than an Amway salesman. In terms of average finish, JPM is second only to Mark Martin with an average finish of 6.6 over the last five races. Over the last ten, he’s in a three-way tie with Hamlin and Biffle with a 9.6, trailing Martin’s 8.4. I’d be just a little more excited if he actually won a race.
#2- Jimmie Johnson (ranked 2nd last week)- Imagine finishing 9th in a race and giving up ground in the points. That happened to Johnson in Kansas. Granted, 18 points out isn’t much at all. He still demonstrates he’s one of the best, and performs like the champion he is. It’s just that this year, he’s got more competition than he’s ever had.
#1- Mark Martin (ranked 1st last week)- The inconsistency that dogged Martin in the early stretch of 2009 is all but gone. He’s had six straight top tens and five top fives out of those six races. I’m amazed at how many people doubt the "Flying Wrinkle." Someone is going to knock him off his perch to get him to turn loose of it. I’m not looking for the bad luck that bit Martin at Auto Club to re-visit him this Sunday.
FALLING OFF THE PACE
Stick a fork in Brian Vickers, he’s all but done for winning a title. It’s a shame, but make no mistake he’ll put up some good runs and may even pick up another win before the Chase is over.
READY TO STRIKE
Carl Edwards is doing his best to keep running with the big dogs. He may get a win before this is all over.
DISTANT THUNDER
Give props to David Reutimann for his top ten at Kansas. These last few races may serve as a springboard for a real serious next season…Kyle Busch is still accounting well for himself. 12th place ain’t terrible considering the disappointment he’s had.
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I’d have to agree. JPM takes some of the “vanilla” out of the chase. I also agree with your assessment of Jimmie Johnson. It’s rare in sports you find a winner who really doesn’t have much of a following. JJ has a following, but you’d think with what he’s done, it’d be more like “The Nation.” Ah, but that’s another story for another time. But for those who think this chase lacks a bad boy element, I point them squarely in the direction of Montoya and Stewart.