To hear some of the pundits tell it, Jimmie Johnson might as well start working on his acceptance speech and Chandi should be out shopping for an extra special evening gown- because Jimmie Johnson is going to win himself his fourth straight championship.
I say "Not so fast."
Everyone’s entitled to their opinion and let’s face it, going with the three-time repeat champion is a darn safe bet. Johnson has unquestionable talent, a genius of a crew chief, and the support of the best team in the business. But you want to know something? NASCAR is not a safe business, and I can think of four good reasons why the trophy engraver should just cool his heels first.
Reason #1- The quality of the competition. Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch. Johnson is up against a level competition unlike any he’s come across before- including these three who have achieved the pinnacle of motorsports success.
This doesn’t even take into account the presence of a four-time runner-up (Martin), last year’s runner-up (Edwards) and a bevy of hungry young bucks like Hamlin, Kahne and Montoya eager to grab some glory of their own.
It’s been said before, and it’s true. It’s a wide open chase this year. While Johnson has to be considered a favorite, he is nowhere near a lock.
Reason #2- Parity. Can it honestly be said that one driver has clear advantage of the others? Johnson has four other competitors in this chase who share basically the same equipment. Yes, having Chad Knaus and Rick Hendrick on your side is huge, but at the end of the day, it’s Jimmie driving the car. I will also go on to say that NASCAR has achieved one of its goals with the "CoT"…parity. Johnson is certainly one of the best, but clearly better than the others, like say, Tony Stewart? I won’t go that far.
Reason #3- He’s human after all. Between blown fuel strategy, an overshot pit box or two and a couple of other bobbles, we’ve learned that Jimmie Johnson is far from some racing robot who can do no wrong. I know many of the talking heads will say that he’s been sleepwalking through the last several races because he clinched a long time ago. I’m not buying it. Personally, I don’t buy it. I think he races to win every time out. As hard as it is to believe, he’s not perfect.
Reason #4- Sooner or later, the luck just runs out. I’ve likened the "48" team to the NFL’s New England Patriots on more than one occasion, right down to the insane amount of good fortune they’ve enjoyed. But even the Patriots lost to the Giants, and had to endure a season without their star quarterback. Sooner or later, Johnson will get collected in a wreck, or he’ll end up with some crazy mechanical malfunction, or a tire will go down at the wrong time. Lady Luck is fickle that way. She turns her back on everybody once in a while, and a hunch says Johnson’s time is coming.
Jimmie Johnson just might be the best racer of this generation. Even if he never wins another Cup, he’s already proven he’ at least one of the greats with an incredible run, right from his rookie season until now. No one can take that away from him.
With that having been said, there’s a reason races are run on tracks and not on paper. I could be proven famously wrong, but look at this year’s competition, how the season has played out and how insanely the winds of fortune have blown.
It’s been one of those years. I suspect how it ends will be further evidence of it.
{ 22 comments… read them below or add one }
I hope you are right, I don’t think I can take another Johnson Chase. Not to take anything away from his run so far but there are other drivers in the chase & I would like to see a different champion.
If you want to title you’re article “4 reasons…” you should probably list 4 reasons, not 1, 2, 3a, and 3b. Do you have an editor?
Jimmie wins #4 btw.
@awall. I’ve been accused of stupidity more than once, but think I can count (maybe). I count four here: 1) The level of driver competition this year, not just 1 or 2 serious competitors, but perhaps as many as 4. 2) Parity. The CoT levels the playing field and what’s more, he’s got two HMS teammates with the same great equpment and information, plus two HMS-equipped competitors. 3) He and Knaus have shown a little more fallibility and 4) Sooner or later, bad luck visits us all, and Johnson may be long overdue.
Just sayin’.
@awall. I see what you’re saying now. To answer your question, I don’t have noe. You volunteering?
I have to agree, lady luck does run out eventually, and JJ has always had luck on his side. And I think JJ winning four in a row is not good for the sport unless your a JJ fan.
It’s Mark Martin or Tony Stewart’s Chase to lose. That said, somebody like Edwards could sneak in there if he remembers how to win in Cup again.
My picks:
1. Martin
2. Hamlin
3. Stewart
4. Newman
5. Edwards
And any of the five on this list can win it and I wouldn’t be surprised.
Montoya could be the darkest of all those in the Chase to win it all.
Damn. I need an editor, too.
@Janine. At times like this, I wonder what it was like in ‘67 when Petty absolutely MANHANDLED the field. Parity is good for any sport.
@JJ. I know the feeling. Is it the weekend yet? JPM could surprise us now that he doesn’t have to “play it safe.” My concern with Edwards is just simply wondering in the rest of the field caught up to RFR. I’m really shocked he hasn’t won yet this year.
“Things turn out best for the people who make the best of the way things turn out.” – John Wooden
The above quote exemplifies Jimmy Johnson’s, Chad Knaus led team. This is why they win – not luck. They don’t let circumstances get them down. They never give up.
I’m not a Jimmy Johnson fan – this is just the facts.
@Phil. Love the quote.
NASCAR ain’t stupid. They won’t let him win another one. Yeah, I know what you are thinking…. Don’t EVER believe NASCAR can’t control who wins a race or two or a championship.
Remember the year Mark Martin was on top, and in the last race of the year NASCAR took 25 points away for an illegal carb ??? Dale Sr won that year. Taking points away had never been done in the past, but NASCAR did it that year…
The 48 has won his last championship for his career. Take that to the bank.
I look for it to go to Mark. NASCAR knows what he has done for the sport and it is pay back time.
Johnson is a very talented driver, and yes lucky. When you get back 3 lucky dogs in one race, that’s extremely lucky. And I do feel NASCAR can control the race the race to some extent. At Richmond last week the caution was thrown for debris 3 times, but the camera crew could not find any. That’s control.
OOOPs I need an editor too.
@Janine.
@Gary. I’m not much of one for conspiracy theories, but there are things that make you say “Hmmm.”
Re: Edwards. I’m of two thoughts: 1. His just too spread out, focusing on Nationwide title and Cup, and 2. Roush in general is having a down year, but still managed to get two cars in the Chase.
I think he’ll win a couple of races in the Chase now that he knows he’s in it.
And think about Hendrick, it’s really only been Johnson who has been consistently competitive these last couple of years. Now there’s real competition between the 48 and Stewart-Haas, the 5, the 24 and it’s been showing. Johnson has not been the dominant force he was the last couple of seasons.
I think Kyle Busch will make the Chase really interesting by NOT being in it–caution to the wind so to speak.
To be the Champ, you gotta beat the Champ! Go Johnson!!!
In 1990 NASCAR penalized Mark Martin 46 points after the Richmond race in February for an illegal carb. spacer. After only two races into the season, there was plenty of time to make up that difference. NASCAR had point penalties prior to that many times. Maybe Steve Hmiel should have made sure the part was legal.
And just because the TV broadcast didn’t show the debris, that doesn’t mean it wasn’t there.
Martin needs to give back to the fans the millions of dollars he “stole” from them for his “retirement tour” souvenirs they all bought thinking he was really retiring. I hope the greedy SOB has a career ending injury !!
Johnson is already better than all of them and equal to gordon he will win his fourth championship and maybe pass richard petty and the late great dale earnhardt sr johnson will be flawless and win again.
@Keith. I have been a Journeyman in my trade for a lot of years and have always loved what I do. A few years back, I found I no longer enjoyed my trade. I was burnt out. I took three years off and worked a different trade. After that shift I found myself rejuvenated and returned to my original trade. Now I’m more successful than I had ever thought possible.
Give this “He Owes” crap a break. Unless your psychic, how do you know the decisions you make today are set in stone. Mark, like anyone else, has the right to change his mind and live his life!
Knaus is the biggest cheating jerk crew chief out there. If it wasn’t for his cheating ways Johnson would no way have 3 titles. How many of the wins do you think are legit? Look back at all the times he has been caught cheating and then think about it. This is a sorry way for Nascar to promote the sport. No wonder rating arte in the toliet,
dear smokefan4ever, you are so full of it! It’s almost impossible to cheat with COT! Why are smoke, and martin and Gordon as good or better than JJ? The cheating excuse is for losers like you! It’s getting really old!