Between the success of Tony Stewart with his new team, the struggle of Kyle Busch for consistency, and the rise of drivers like Juan Pablo Montoya and Kasey Kahne, the 2009 season has had its share of surprises. We may not be finished with surprises.
Like many observers, I figured Jimmie Johnson to capture an unprecedented fourth straight championship at the outset of the season. The way things are shaping up now, I’d say Johnson will get the stiffest competition he’s ever had.
Who would have thought Denny Hamlin would be the hottest driver going into the chase? Oh sure, in the past, you could count on Denny for a win or two, qualifying for the chase, and fading down the stretch. Not this time. Hamlin has six straight top tens, including a pair of wins. If he keeps up the consistency, he’ll be a force.
That deep sight of relief you’re hearing is coming from the camp of Mark Martin. After a pair of disasters at Fontana and Las Vegas had him on the verge of becoming a "go or go homer," and don’t forget, for much of the early season, Martin was often mentioned in the same breath as Dale Earnhardt Jr. as 2009 disappointments.
The victory at Phoenix, his first since 2005 at Kansas, lit an inspirational fire under him. Martin has since reeled off three more wins to become the number one seed. He hardly waltzed there, as his finishes on the road courses were ordinary, and then there were disasters n the second Michigan race and Talladega. The say that what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger. Martin’s team is battle tested, and for his crew, it truly is a "second season."
Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson occupy Martin’s rear view mirror. The "48" team possesses a stick and ball equivalent in the New Englad Patriots. Everything they do, even when they’re gambling, seems to turn out right when it comes to the chase. While it’s tempting to say the reigning champion is falling off, I wouldn’t be so quick to write him off. His recent finishes haven’t been good, to be sure. Let’s not remember, Johnson hasn’t had any pressure on him for a while. There’s a thick notebook of winning notes for this team to draw from, their luck is as often as "crazy good" as Martin’s has been "crazy bad."
As for Smoke, if the season ended today, you’ have to say 2009 has been a smashing success. Many detractors will rightly point out that Stewart is not your "dad’s owner/driver" as he was basically offered a stake in an existing (yet moribund) organization affiliated with the best in NASCAR. Nonetheless, look what has been assembled. Bobby Hutchens, Darian Grubb and a host of others have formed a rock solid alliance that has put the two-time champion in a position to win almost every week. There’s no reason to expect it will fall apart now.
From this point of view, those are the four strongest candidates 
for the championship, yet I’d be remiss to dismiss the others not already mentioned. Jeff Gordon’s been there before and his team has made improvements since last season. The same can be said for Kurt Busch, who is back in the chase after a rough 2008. Carl Edwards will come in hungry, so will Ryan Newman and Greg Biffle and let’s not forget Kasey Kahne, Juan Pablo Montoya and Brian Vickers. The last three I speak of weren’t here in 2008 and they’ve all had enough moments of brilliance to get to this point. Racing past the likes of Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer is no small achievement, so I’ll leave it someone else to say they are somehow less worthy than the front runners.
With the points reset, all the contenders are bunched in the front. The bonuses earned by winning are small and can be quickly overcome. Remember, Biffle came into the chase winless and quickly picked off two wins.
It’s a brand new race folks. The objective for the chasers and the other racers is the same…
You race to win.
PHOTO CREDITS- The "Top 12" by Rusty Jarrett/ Getty Images for NASCAR, Hamlin with trophy by Todd Warshaw/ Getty Images for NASCAR media, Vickers by Streeter Leska/ Getty Images, Hamlin burn out by Jerry Markland/ Getty Images for NASCAR media.
