2009 Is Exhibit "A" In Case For Chase

It could all come down to the final lap at Richmond. Eight, maybe even as many as nine drivers fight for six spots in the chase up for grabs.

The questions abound. Can Kasey Kahne and Matt Kenseth, who are in the chase, hold off surging racers like Kyle Busch and Brian Vickers? Can Ryan Newman, Greg Biffle and Mark Martin fight through fluctuating fortunes to hold on to their positions? How will two very different race tracks like Atlanta Motor Speedway and Richmond International Raceway affect the skill sets of the drivers in question?

One great thing about this year’s chase is its going to be different. Even if the current top twelve doesn’t change at all, five drivers who weren’t in the 2008 chase will make NASCAR’s answer to a playoff system. Kurt Busch would rebound from his moribund 2008 season, Kasey Kahne and Mark Martin would get in for the first time since 2006, Ryan Newman his first since 2005, and former open wheel ace Juan Pablo Montoya would have his first shot at a NASCAR Cup championship.

As things set up for the stretch run, we see an entirely different battle at the front of the pack. By the time things really got going in 2008, it was pretty much the Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards show as Kyle Busch faded and mini bursts by Jeff Burton and Greg Biffle failed to gain traction. This year- Johnson has bobbled just enough to show he can be caught if someone else catches fire, one could argue there’s a run in Mark Martin if he can shake the bad luck and Denny Hamlin might very well prove to be the dark horse.

Let us also not forget the likes of Jeff Gordon, Kurt Busch and Carl Edwards. Each have had issues to overcome, but they’ve run winning cars on numerous occasions.

Look out for Kyle Busch. Like Martin, if he can get in, he’s a threat, a very serious threat with his aggressive approach and Joe Gibbs equipment.

That doesn’t even take into consideration the battle that may brew between the 3-time defending champion Johnson and the 2-time champion Stewart, who is making this run in his first season with a new team in which he has an ownership stake.

Looks like a heck of a show to me.

Now let us consider for a moment a 2009 without the chase. Smoke holds a nice, cushy 220 point lead over Johnson- and unless his last two races aren’t the aberrations most think they are- then he just sails onto to the trophy stand. There’s no build up, no excitement, just a stroll to the end.

When you boil down the critics’ arguments, it comes down to this: it favors the driver who gets hot during the last ten races. Yeah? O.K., so it does. It’s a little bit like the adage that “in order to finish first, you must first finish.” You’ve got to be good to get to even qualify in the first place! If Tony Stewart is deserving of a championship, he’ll run as well in the chase as he does outside of it.

You purists will skewer me over this, but let’s consider the stick and ball world. In 2008, the New York Giants rocked the football world by upsetting previously unbeaten New England. When it counted, the Giants stepped up and I doubt anyone would argue they earned their NFL championship.

I’ve seen other teams that rocked the regular season, only to falter under the pressure of the playoff glare. The Seattle Mariners killed in the regular season one season several years back, but collapsed in the post-season. What about the year Ohio State upset Miami for the national championship in college football?

There’s something to be said for shaking off the pressure, for coming through in the clutch. With the old points system, you rarely get that. For every 1992 (where Alan Kulwicki edged Bill Elliott by 10 points),  you get a 2001, where Jeff Gordon left Tony Stewart choking on his dust.

Now that’s not to say the points system couldn’t reward true excellence a little better. Not to take anything away from Juan Pablo Montoya, but how he’d get in chase over three drivers with a combined total of 10 wins tells me wins and top fives need to mean more. When you really get down to it, there are a number of drivers without high marks who’ve stuck around because they’ve avoided DNFs, which from what I see, is more about luck than it is skill, especially if you think about Kyle Busch at the Daytona 500 or Mark Martin at Talladega.

In fact, for you NASCAR math geeks, here’s an interesting read from All Left Turns (click link to read). NASCAR sabermetrician Dale Watermill has a very interesting formula for points.

I’m liking this chase race this year, and no one has yet articulated, as far as I’m concerned a good argument against it. Winning matters more and that all sacred cow of consistency still counts. Without it, you find yourself in Kyle Busch’s position. I say, if you can be like the Arizona Cardinals of 2008 and get hot in the clutch, or be a wild card like the 1980 Oakland Raiders (who won a Super Bowl), more power to you.

When examining the options, to me, the choice is clear. I’ll take the chase.

Without it- the chase for the championship becomes a stroll.

Living proof that there’s balance at Bump Drafts is the presence of my good friend John “Dawg” Chapman, a fan of racing since before the hills got dusty. He opines of one of the unintended consequences of our present scenario. Now before I yield the stump, I submit that it would have been tempting for Kyle Busch to “points race”, but his performance at Bristol was anything but that, and his point total is the better for it.

Here’s John….

We may only see about half of the current chase field racing for the next two weeks. “How can that be?” you ask. Simple- the top 5-6 can race because they are locked in. Anyone further back will won’t be able to really race. Instead they will be tip toeing around, just trying to stay out of trouble, and protect what they have.

Sometimes that’s not really the best way to stay out of trouble, but time will tell. On the surface it looks like Kyle is racing, and he will be racing Matt. In reality, he’s racing everyone from the Biff back. He only has to beat one of them to get in.

History says that Kyle and Brian won’t both get in, but it could happen. Again, historically, it’s not the driver in the last spot that gets bumped. I can’t help but think Kasey could be the one on the hot seat.

Hang on. This could be the most interesting two weeks of the entire season.

….now that last statement I’m in total agreement with and it will indeed get quite interesting.