Big 10 Driver Rankings: Movers ‘n’ Shakers

Just two races to go before the chase, and we’ve got some movers and shakers. There are drivers moving up, catching fire at the perfect time. Some drivers are shakers. By that, I mean there are some drivers shaking in their boots just a bit that because their chances of making it into the chase hang in the balance.

Here’s who I think really belongs in the top ten. Keep in mind once again, I try to balance trends with the overall body of work for the season. There will be those who call a foul on the way I have this ordered, but this is my story, and I’m sticking to it….

THE BIG TEN

#10- Kyle Busch (unranked last week)- Kyle’s movin’ on up and he has the schedule on his side. Busch got Toyota their first win last year at Atlanta and he won earlier this year at Richmond. He’s in. He’s so in. I don’t care what anybody says, Busch is more deserving to be in the chase than Juan Pablo Montoya (who has just ONE top five all year) and Kasey Kahne, who has fewer wins and fewer top fives than Busch. I’m no Kyle Busch apologist. I’m not. But if he doesn’t make the chase, it will be a travesty.

#9- Greg Biffle (unranked last week)- This cat has used up most of his nine lives, but he’s trending back in the right direction. I give this guy props. I really thought he was toast not more than a month ago. He’s pulled out of his slump and he’s managing to hang around. With 8 top 5s, Biffle has twice as many as Matt Kenseth and Kasey Kahne, plus as many top 10s as JPM. He belongs. And he’s also a threat at a down force track like Atlanta and certainly capable at Richmond.

#8- Carl Edwards (ranked 6th last week)- Ol’ Flipper would be more in the “shaker” camp were it not for the fact he’s managed to avoid and honest-to-God slump. The thing is, while his numbers are decent, Edwards just doesn’t look like a real championship contender. Though there’s not a real stinker among them, Edwards has finished outside the top 10 in 4 of his last 6 races. The good news for Edwards? He won here last year, but then again, there’s been a lot of races he’d won in 2008 where he’s been shut out this year.

#7- Kurt Busch (8th last week)- Shrub the Elder looked like a serious threat to win Saturday, and then he managed hold on for a 7th place finish. Atlanta comes at a great time for Kurt, this being where he won and did that “unwind” victory lap. He hasn’t had a top five since July 4th, not a good time to be slipping though he’s pretty safe. I’ll give Busch credit for this: he’s not had a prolonged slump this season. Every time he’s had a bad race, the Blue Deuce has managed to turn it around the next one.

#6- Brian Vickers (4th last week)- Finishing 12th at Bristol was something of a minor miracle for Vickers. Another argument for putting Vickers here- he has the highest average finish of any driver over the last five races- edging out Biffle and easily better than anyone in the top five in points. Now that Bristol’s done, he goes to an Atlanta track where finished 5th in March and a Richmond track where he was 15th. Vickers will have to better that output, but five points behind Busch, he has a real chance to sneak in.

#5- Jeff Gordon (2nd last week)- If it weren’t for great consistency throughout much of this season, “Big Daddy” would be in jeopardy of “shaker” status. Here’s the thing: while he’s bee near the front in most races, there are far too many where’s been no real threat to win it. He’ll run some good races, and it will be offset by a real lousy one. Fortunately, for Gordon, he’s good just about everywhere and he could get hot at any time.

#4- Mark Martin (unranked last week)- Here’s another audacious prediction: I think Mark Martin not only gets in the chase, I think he’s got a darn good chance at winning it. Martin has a pair of wins at Atlanta, and he’ll do well, provided he avoids the bad luck that plagued him here in March. He also has a win at Richmond and an average finish of 11.9. I know there’s been some bad races in his rear view mirror, but the most serious contenders are showing some chinks in the armor too.

#3- Jimmie Johnson (ranked 3rd last week)- It’s tempting to make another wild prediction that Johnson falls short in his attempt to win a fourth straight title. I’ll let that one rest for a while. Though his last three races haven’t out the way they should have, you can’t underestimate him down the stretch. Too many more bobbles, though, and he’ll find himself chasing the likes of Stewart, Shrub, Gordon and Martin.

#2- Denny Hamlin (ranked 6th last week)- Get this: Hamlin has an average finish of just over six in his last four races. I’m not sure how Hamlin does it, but he’s managed to be there right at the end. He might be the most emotional racer on the circuit. Wins in his home state mean a great deal to Hamlin, so watch for him there. Atlanta’s not by any means his best track, but you wouldn’t think there’d be any reason for him NOT to do well there. Hamlin and Mark Martin are tied for 5th in top 10s with 12- just behind Kurt Busch (13), Johnson (15), Gordon (16) and Stewart (18).

#1- Tony Stewart (ranked 1st for a very long time)- I suppose I could have given the spot to Johnson, but even with his horrific night at Bristol, Smoke is still better. I could have given it to Hamlin, but Stewart has been better by just about every measure. Kyle Busch and Martin have more wins, but Stewart was been way more consistent. Gordon has consistency, but the “14″ has more wins and really, Gordon wasn’t much better than Stewart Saturday.

FALLING OFF THE PACE

I’ve got a bad feeling about Juan Pablo Montoya. To me, he may be another David Reutimann- a driver who’s really improved, but not quite there yet. I just can’t justify putting a driver with ONE top five in the top 10. It’s a shame about Indy and how a fla tire screwed him up at Bristol…Ditto for Kasey Kahne. He’s fallen three spots in the points, and though I had one reader say I was out of my mind for leaving him out two weeks ago, I just look at the drivers ahead of him and he’s just not there right now, the operative word being “right now.” Kahne should be a force at Atlanta, though Richmond wasn’t kind to him in May. Clint Bowyer’s chase hopes are in grave condition, but then, as has been stated elsewhere, he races well under pressure.

MID- PACKERS

Ryan Newman broke a slump with a 6th place finish at Bristol. By the same token, I wouldn’t be totally shocked if he missed the cut. He has only 2 top 10’s in his last 10 starts…Matt Kenseth continues to hold down a top 12 spot by the skin of his teeth. Definitely a shaker. He hovers right around 13th or 14th. It’s a long road from that win in California…David Reutimann is effectively toast. He’ made big time improvements, but never has a driver ran so well in races to get such ordinary results.

DISTANT THUNDER

Marcos Ambrose can now be called the “Thunder From Down Under.” If he just gets the intermediates down, look out….Dale Earnhardt Jr. racks up another top 10. Wait ’til next year.

 PHOTO CREDITS- Busch’s Bristol burnout by John Harrelson/ Getty Images. Carl Edwards, Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin by Sam Greenwood/ Getty Images for NASCAR.