Who here predicted Kasey Kahne, Juan Pablo Montoya and Ryan Newman would all three be in the top 12 at this juncture in the season? If you did, then I want you picking my lotto numbers. Kahne and Montoya have both been especially impressive of late.
The question for me last week was one of whether or not they could sustain it. Well guess what ladies and gentlemen? The men of the moment are sticking around, making the chase for the chase quite interesting. Now we even have Brian Vickers knocking on the door and Clint Bowyer serving notice he’s still got something for the front pack.
Before we dive in, wrap your head around this and tell me what you think: if the chase started today, we would have one driver with no wins and a single top five in the chase, while one driver with three wins is out.
Here’s our “Big 10″
#10- Carl Edwards (ranked 9th last week)- How did this happen? Edwards looks like a
contender for a win, then poof! Cousin Carl finishes 18th on the day. For the purposes of these rankings, Edwards barely edges past teammate Matt Kenseth- who placed 11th at Long Pond, but has a slightly worse finishing average of late than Edwards.
#9- Brian Vickers (ranked 8th last week)- Vickers actually had a good week, Hamlin just had a better one. Could Red Bull’s go to guy pull off a late run into the chase a la Jeremy Mayfield? He’ll need a bit of help and Vickers will have to get blazing hot, but the aforementioned Mayfield’s runs in 2004 and 2005 show what getting hot at the right time can do for you. He did a great job of holding off Mark Martin for his 6th place finish Monday.
#8- Denny Hamlin (unranked last week)- Nothing like a win to turn you around. On top of his win at Pocono, Hamlin has quietly registered 7 top 5s and 9 top 10s, good enough to place him 5th in points. With all the insanity behind him, Hamlin should be a pretty safe bet to make the top 12 come Richmond.
#7- Kurt Busch (ranked 7th last week)- The Blue Deuce continues to get mileage from his early season performance. Over his last five races, Busch is just a tick better than Martin (12.2 versus 12.4 on average finish), but it runs him behind Vickers (12.0), Hamlin (11.6) and Jeff Gordon (9.8) just to name a few. The top ten run at Pocono helps stem the bleeding a bit. Fortunately, it’s just a flesh wound.
#6- Mark Martin (ranked 4th last week)- This could only happen to Mark Martin: he finishes 7th, but slips a spot in the points. Martin sits right in the eye of the points storm- 160 points ahead of 13th place Kyle Busch and 5 points behind 9th place Ryan Newman. If ever anyone could sit in this pocket and survive, it’d be “The Kid.” By the way, did you know Martin has 3 wins at Watkins Glen? He actually won three in a wor back in the mid-nineties.
#5- Juan Pablo Montoya (ranked 6th last week)- With an average finish of 8.8 over his last five starts, JPM is starting to look like the real deal. That average is a Cup series 4th best over that span. The second place run Monday is Montoya’s first top five of the year. In two starts at “The Glen”- the guy I now dub the “Colombian Cyclone” has a top five, and there’s little doubt the former Formula One and IRL sensation is one of the favorites for a win.
#4- Kasey Kahne (ranked 5th last week)- Kahne is another driver peaking at the right time. It bears repeating what I pointed out last week: Kasey has finished worse than 30th only once this season. This time last year, that had happened on four occasions already. Something to keep an eye on? Kahne has never finished in the top ten at Watkins Glen.
#3- Jimmie Johnson (ranked second last week)- I know a lot of people are grousing over Johnson being given three “Lucky Dogs” Monday, but give “Mr. Opportunity” credit for one thing: he and his team get more mileage out of the cards dealt them than anyone in the business. That’s what champions do.
#2- Jeff Gordon (ranked 3rd last week)- Really? Jeff Gordon was racing at Pocono? He got a top 10? This Sunday’s race could be a killer duel between Gordon and Tony Stewart: both have a NASCAR-leading 4 wins at Watkins- Glen.
#1- Tony Stewart (ranked first last week)- Smoke deserves big time credit for starting in the back, battling loose conditions and overcoming all kinds of issues to finish 10th at Long Pond. Besides his two wins, Smoke leads the way with 12 top 5s and 17 top 10s on the season.
FALLING OFF THE PACE
Dating back to the all-star break, Ryan Newman has finished out of the top 10 6 six times since finishing second in the rain-abbreviated Coca- Cola 600. Newman also lost two spots in the points, now running nine points ahead of Mark Martin in 9th.
READY TO STRIKE
While finishing 11th is nothing to write home about, Matt Kenseth continues to hang in there. I came very close to awarding him 10th over his teammate…Greg Biffle has a 101-point edge over Kyle Busch in 12th. The bad news for Biffle? He has just one top ten at the Glen, and Busch won the race last season…Kyle Busch needs this to be a rebound week as he’s beginning to run out time to get back in the chase.
DISTANT THUNDER
Clint Bowyer came to life with a 3rd place run at Pocono, running just well enough to remind us of his talent, though he, like everyone else at RCR, is having a season he’d rather forget…It doesn’t look like Denny Hamlin will get a Christmas card this years from David Reutimann. Beak was running top ten before Hamlin got in the back of the “Double Ought” and sent him spinning in to a 29th place finish. Still, Reutimann has to know he’s had problems with consistency and wouldn’t be in the fix he’s in were it not for 8 finishes of 20th or worse.
Back Drafts: Some other top 10 lists
Race fans, if this list is any indication, you have some very interesting things on your mind. According to Ask.com, these are the “10 Most Popular NASCAR-related questions for the week of July 27 through August 2. Based on what we see here, guys- winning is the way to the heart and “Depends” should consider a car sponsorship.
Here are the top NASCAR questions on Ask.com…..
#10- Does Kasey Kahne have a girlfriend?, #9- Who holds the 144.892 miles per hour race record at Pocono Raceway? #8- Who did Jamie Mc Murray marry?, #7- How do NASCAR drivers go to the bathroom?, #6- Who won the Brickyard 400? #5- What does NASCAR stand for?, #4- Who is Tony Stewart dating?, #3- Does Tony Stewart have a girlfriend, #2- How do NASCAR drivers use the bathroom? and #1- Where is Pocono Raceway?
The Top 10 Driver Searches? Believe it or not, Dale Jr. does not top the list….
#10- Kasey Kahne, #9- Michael Waltrip, #8- Mark Martin, #7- Kyle Busch, #6- Jeremy Mayfield, #5- Jimmie Johnson, #4- Dale Earnhardt, #3- Jeff Gordon, #2- Dale Earnhardt Jr., #1- Tony Stewart.
PHOTO CREDITS- Carl Edwards by Walter G. Arce, Kahne and Montoya by XSP Images, Mark Martin by aranem. To see more, visit flickr.com or click on the hyperlinks.
