Check out who’s crashing the party. There’s a lot of fresh faces up towards the front. Juan Pablo Montoya, Brian Vickers and David Reutimann are putting pressure on the usual suspects, and it’s not inconceivable that these three could supplant more familiar contenders like Kenseth, Biffle and Kyle Busch.
Now consistency is another matter, and from this observer’s point of view, four wheelmen are emerging as the most serious contenders for a championship. Yes- three of these four have the unenviable task of trying to pass Jimmie Johnson to do it. Ask Mark Martin how hard that is. On the other hand, there’s a mixture of brilliance and consistency here to keep the defending champ in a constant state of mirror driving.
Let’s see how the rankings shake out this week….
THE TOP 10
#10- Ryan Newman (ranked 10th last week)- Newman still hasn’t re-captured the mojo he had when in a 10 race stretch between Bristol and Pocono, he recorded 7 top 10s and 5 top 5s. Though it’s hardly a ringing endorsement, it helps that there are drivers behind him in points that are having greater challenges with consistency. The good news for Rocket? Newman scored a 5th at Pocono in the spring, and he won the summer, 2003 race at Long Pond.
#9- Carl Edwards (ranked 9th last week)- Edwards and Newman are pretty comparable in their stats, with neither really setting the world on fire. The difference is Newman’s performance represents an improvement, while Carl is no where near where he was last year as the Cup leader in wins. Looking ahead, keep in mind Edwards has a pair of wins at Pocono, including last August. His season has been mystifying. I can’t figure Carl out, Heck, Carl can’t figure Carl out.
#8- Brian Vickers (unranked last week)- What??? Yes, Brian Vickers belongs here. Do
you realize Vickers has 3 straight top 10s, including a 5th place finish at the Brickyard? In fact, Vickers has 3 top 5s, something JPM doesn’t have and he also has more top 10s than Matt Kenseth, Kyle Busch, David Reutimann, Denny Hamlin and Kasey Kahne. His problem, besides being winless? Five finishes of 30th or worse. Vickers has scored 4 top 5s at Pocono, so his emergence may very well continue.
#7- Kurt Busch (ranked 8th last week)- Kurt should be applauded for getting a 27th place finish Sunday in a piece of junk. Overall, the lesser heralded Busch brother is still having a vastly improved season compared to 2008. On paper, Busch’s performance looks very similar to that of Mark Martin or Carl Edwards. Realistically, Busch is slipping from a serious title contender to a guy who’s hanging in there. Kurt is also another driver with reasons to look forward to Pocono as one who was won here twice.
#6- Juan Pablo Montoya (ranked 6th last week)- JPM gets a ranking this high for two reasons: 1) Recognition he had a win in the bag before the penalty and salvaged a respectable 12th. A sign of maturity was that he didn’t take out his frustrations on the field. 2) Montoya’s average finish of 9.6 over his last 5 starts ranks him only behind Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson and Kasey Freakin’ Kahne. Whether or not he can sustain it is debatable, but he’s got a real good shot. He finished 8th at Pocono in June and we all know right now, JPM is points racing.
#5- Kasey Kahne (ranked 5th last week)- Check this out: Kahne has finished worse than 30th only once this season and has no DNFs. I guess you could say he’s Regan Smith for the upscale. With an average finish of 7.2 over his last 5 races, K-Squared is getting rather darned consistent at the right time. Oh by the way, Kahne won at Pocono in June, 2008.
#4- Mark Martin (ranked 7th last week)- This year’s leader in wins got just what he needed to bolster his standing with a second place finish. He’s now 110 points out in front of David Reutimann, so he’s getting a little separation and goes from 11th to 9th. The Kid simply needs to keep on this trend, Though He has never won at Pocono, he does have a very solid record there.
#3- Jeff Gordon (ranked 2nd last week)- How is it possible a driver so consistent is going backwards? Answer: Tony and Jimmie are just that good. Big Daddy has 4 wins at Pocono, so if he can unpack a good car, count him in.
#2- Jimmie Johnson (ranked 3rd last week)- Don’t look now, but Johnson is turning up the heat. He hasn’t finished out of the top 10 since running out of gas at Michigan. A fourth straight Cup is by no means a foregone conclusion- Stewart, Gordon and Martin have been as good, if not better than Johnson at times, plus I wouldn’t shovel dirt just yet on Edwards and the Busch brothers. That said, this team is to NASCAR what the Dallas Cowboys were to the NFL in the early 90s.
#1- Tony Stewart (ranked 1st last week)- Smoke is “Mr. Right” while Johnson is “Mr. Right Now.” Check this out: Tony’s worst finish is a 26th at Las Vegas, and out of 20 races run, Stewart has 16 (!) top 10s! You’d have to go all the way back to Lowe’s in that rain-shortened race on Memorial Day to find the last time Stewart wasn’t in the top 10. Can he pull off the Pocono sweep? Heck yeah. He’ll need wins to hold off Johnson and the consistency could keep Gordon and Martin at bay.
FALLING OFF THE PACE
I don’t think he’ll stay down, but Denny Hamlin had a bad race at a bad time Sunday. I look for Hamlin to rebound. Remember, in his brief career, he’s never missed the chase.
READY TO STRIKE
I accept the fact I’ll get some grief for not including Roushketeers Greg Biffle (who
finished 4th at Indy) and Matt Kenseth (who took 10th). It was a nice bounce back race for both, but on the basis of trends, I stand behind the drivers currently in my top 10…I keep saying it, Kyle Busch will ultimately make the chase. He’s simply too good to be this bad this long…David Reutimann ran a solid 8th. Beak also ran a great race at Pocono in the Spring.
DISTANT THUNDER
Kevin Harvick reminded us at Indy that he’s still got it. Unfortunately, his season has been a foregone conclusion for some time now…Joey Logano is true, blue distant thunder, continuing to show promise. Sliced Bread finished 12th after starting in the back…Reed Sorenson also ran a race worthy of props.
PHOTO CREDITS- Turn Two action by flames55. To see more of his work, click on the hyperlink or visit flickr.com. Driver headshots courtesy of Getty Images for NASCAR Media by Sam Greenwood.
