Soapbox: Silly Season Speculations

Editor’s Note: Hey Gang- John “Dawg” Chapman is in the house with his take on Silly Season. As we speak, things are already lining up for more craziness than we could have anticipated.

The fun of blogging is we’re just fans having a conversation. I can’t say John or I have the inside scoop that you don’t. Nobody has a better handle on the rumor mill than Jayski- and we make no pretense of having his finely tuned ear.

We’re just some fans having some fun. You are welcome to join in and get your Nostrodaemus on with us….

SILLY SEASON COULD GET QUITE SILLY

by John “Dawg” Chapman

This may not be what we normally think of “silly season” being. It could easily be more like “Musical Cars”- as in when the music stops, will your car still be there.

Some of these are rumors, some have already happened and some are “W.A.G’s”- that’s “Wild ___ Guesses.”

Here’s how I think things might shape up with the cars and drivers, I think are in play:

#1 Martin Truex

Looks like the Chip & Dale team is out of options this year. Last season they exercised their option on Martin for ‘09. They weren’t able to keep him. Johnny Morris came on board because of Dale Sr. being such an outdoorsman. He liked Martin, but with him gone. I look for Bass Pro Shops to move either to Stewart, or Childress.

With the driver gone and the sponsor looking to go, well you can draw your own conclusions.

#07 Casey Mears

I have to admit, this entire deal had me stumped from the get-go. Admittedly, I’m not privy to the behind the scenes decisions that sent Bowyer to the new team and put Casey in the “07.” This is a team that made the Chase the last two seasons. Obviously the sponsor must have signed on to this deal, but my question is WHY?  Did they seriously think that Casey could sell more J.D. than Clint?

J.D. is in it’s last year. They could possibly re-sign with RCR, but I don’t see it happening with Mears. He had better enjoy the rest of ‘09, because I think he’s in his last quality ride.

#7 Robby Gordon

In fairness, I have to admit that Robby is a personal favorite of mine, so it’s hard to be objective about this. Robby really has nothing left to prove in NA$CAR. Three wins proves he can do it. He’s kept his ragtag operation going, while bigger teams from multi- car owners have folded. Robby has said as owner/driver, if he has to run unsponsored some weeks, then the driver just doesn’t get paid. He can continue to do it, as long as Jim Beam and Menard’s stand behind him. They have been extremely supportive. I just have to wonder when he’s going to get tired of short changing himself.

#8 Aric Almirola

DEI lost Dale Jr. but Teresa adamantly refused to give up the #8. As it turned out, she now looks petty and vindictive to no purpose. It goes to show that there is a world of difference between Mother Teresa and Step Mother Teresa.

#9 Kasey Kane

Kasey is a talented and very marketable driver. You don’t have 6 wins in a season without talent, even if your team had an “Ace” up its sleeve. When they landed Budweiser, they raised their profile. Now with the sale of Anheiser-Busch to Inbev, the sponsorship probably is not going to be what it once was.

When there is a better engine available, but your team chooses not to run it because of money issues, it’s time to check your options. Your team is clearly not first rate. The thing that will probably make Kasey stay put is that the available options are pretty thin.

#12 David Stremme

I was happy to see David get a “do over.” Unfortunately, this one isn’t working. With one team 4th in points, another 25th and the 12 team 33rd- look for a change next year. The Captain didn’t get where he is by accepting things like this.

One reason I suspect that Stremme has been involved in so many on track incidents is that he’s pushing too hard trying to make something happen.

#19 Elliott Sadler

When it takes your lawyer to keep you in your ride, you’d better follow it up with a great season. Elliott hasn’t. With 3 top 10 finishes and 8 lead lap finishes, I don’t see this boding well for his long term prospects.

When he starts showing his resume’ around, it will show 3 wins in 375 races- the last in ‘04. It’s not as good Ward Burton. You figure it out.

#26 Jamie McMurray

Jamie sits 19th in points. It’s not terrible, but not great either. He’s 4th out of 5 at Roush, with the 2 ahead of him in the chase, and one “on the bubble” as of now.

David Reagan ranks far below him in 30th- very disappointing, as everyone expected a breakout season for him. With Jack having to slough off a team next year to the Yates “B” team, logic would dictate that he would be the one to go. In NA$CAR, logic doesn’t always dictate. I see this choice coming down to age and money. Jack needs to do something with the UPS sponsorship and shipping it out isn’t it. Jamie has been a victim of bad luck as much as anything this year, but moving to Yates, doesn’t look to improve it much.

#28 Travis Kvapil 

It’s a real shame that Yates wasn’t able to secure enough financing to put Travis in a really competitive ride. The “28″ could conceivably come back, but I doubt Travis will.

#29 Kevin Harvick

Lets not forget this is the “3″ car we’re talking about. We all know what happened to the 3 car’s magic, but it’s still sad to see it come to this. It’s currently sitting 25th in points- closer to falling out of the top 35 than making the chase. A lot going on here, not much of it good. RCR hit a rough patch a couple of years ago but seemed to have righted the ship. Well it’s taking on water big time now. To Kevin’s credit, he’s spending a ton of money to support his CWTS and Nationwide Series teams. The GM meltdown has to have hit him pretty hard.

All eyes are on RCR as word is now out that Kevin Harvick wants to jump ship to Stewart- Haas. Richard Childress reminds us who’s boss and who holds the contracts. The question here has to be- does a team really want to hang on to a driver who doesn’t want to be there anymore?

#– John Andretti

A quick quiz, What’s John’s number, & who’s one of his sponsors? # 34, with Window World. If you knew that go to the head of the class.

This team started the season locked in the top 35. They did it the approved NA$CAR way. Cash on the barrel head. I’m not knocking this, just pointing it out. Anytime cash is involved NA$CAR is all over it. So I don’t see it changing anytime soon. With the leg up start that they had they have managed to stay in the top 35- mostly, just. They currently sit in 35, but firmly.If a team can’t stay in the top 35 this season it’s time to call in the dogs,(calling all Dietrich’s.)

To their credit, Bob Jenkins has a real race team with a real sponsor and everything. They just need to get a little racier. If WindowWorld or Long John Silver’s were to step back, they would be very hard to replace. This team is hanging in but it seems pretty tenuous.

#44 A.J. Allmendinger

This team started out in turmoil, with only enough sponsorship to run the first few races. Largely on the strength of their 3rd place at Daytona, they have been able to cobble together enough money to run the entire season. A.J., (to give your kid these initials and point him toward a race car shows a real leap of faith) has performed about evenly with the 19 car that he was originally slated to run. This tells me that he’s getting about all there is out of what he’s been given.

I question whether RPM has enough “revs” to keep this car running beyond this season. If this does go away, he could move into the #19, or I’m sure he could move to another ride, but I don’t think he could improve on the #19.

I like AJ, but I doubt he will ever have the team he needs to show what he can really do in NA$CAR .

Tomorrow, as Paul Harvey used to say, I’ll tell you the “rest of the story.” The other teams where I think change is likely, the bottom feeder S, & P, teams, plus an overview of the various owners.