Drivers ‘N’ The Chase: In Or Out?

Remember how it was at this time last year? Kyle Busch was coming off of his seventh victory of the season and continued domination seemed certain. Then came some late summer stumbles and a period where Shrub himself said “we couldn’t find our butt with both hands.”

This year has proven a different proposition altogether. 19 races have produced 11 different winners- just one less than we had all of last year. Five drivers have visited victory lane more than once this season: Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Mark Martin and Matt Kenseth. Of those five, the latter three now sit precariously close to the chase bubble. When the smoke clears, who’s in and who’s out?

Today- I make my predictions…..

IN- The Top Seven. Their invitations to the dance are all but sealed. Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon have been remarkably consistent. Jimmie Johnson is just a nose behind them. Kurt Busch has had a bobble here and there, but has always bounced back. Ditto for Denny Hamlin. The statistics of Carl Edwards and Ryan Newman pretty well mirror each. Roughly 100 points separate the 7th place Newman from Greg Biffle in 13th.

Though some crazy streak of bad luck could strike, these guy are in.

OUT- The RCR Gang. For the past couple of seasons, the drivers of Richard Childress Racing have been stone cold locks to make it. Jeff Burton was a model of consistency, Clint Bowyer would string together brilliant runs. Kevin Harvick was always a challenger for the win.

This year has been a disaster for Harvick with just 2 top 5s and 2 top 10s so far. Burton started rough, seemed to recover, but he’s been MIA since Pocono. Bowyer will run a good race, then follow it up with a couple of pedestrian finishes. Other than 9th place finishes at Richmond and Dover, Casey Mears has been virtually invisible.

IN- Kasey Kahne. If you look at Kahne’s performance this year compared to last, he’s managed to avoid the devastatingly bad finishes that have offset otherwise strong races. On the upcoming schedule, Kahne’s finished as high as second at the Brickyard, Pocono is among his top tracks- and there’s no reason to think Kahne won’t also be a factor at Watkins Glen and Michigan. Consistency will be key. Kahne has 2 top 5s and 3 top 10s in his last 5 races.

OUT- Greg Biffle. It’s a case of good news and bad news. The good news is Biffle has several tracks on the upcoming schedule like  Michigan and Bristol where he has historically done well. The bad news is Biffle has given away races with pit road foibles. Given his career track record, Biffle should be poised to get back in should one of the guys ahead of him stumble. Call it a gut feeling, but I don’t think Biffle will be there.

IN- Mark Martin. He’s among a group of drivers one might respond by saying “Well Duh”, but remember Martin’s fortunes have been all over the map. Fortunately, Martin has a great success at Michigan, Watkins Glen (where has 3 wins), Atlanta and Bristol. Another DNF to his total of three could prove fatal to his hopes, but really, what are the odds the season wins leader doesn’t make the chase?

OUT- David Reutimann. I’m pulling for Reutimann for two reasons: 1) I love his “Everyman” persona and 2) His presence in the chase would provide an additional infusion of new blood. This driver and his team are so much better than they’ve ever been before, but a pattern of inconsistency at critical moments has served to doom Reutimann. He’ll make thing interesting. I suspect he’ll be what Kasey Kahne  was to the 2008 season: good enough to show up on the highlight video and pick off a win, maybe two- but not consistent enough to be there at the end.

IN- Like Roush teammates Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle, Matt Kenseth has had his ups and downs and has, at times, looked quite vulnerable. Coming up, Kenseth has tracks where he’s won before, like Michigan and Bristol. Another positive for Kenseth is his capacity for performing well when trying to overcome long odds. Matt the Brat has never missed a chase and I don’t think this year is the year he misses it.

OUT- Brian Vickers. Given the current unpredictable climate of the driver standings, it’s not insane to think that Vickers doesn’t have something of a chance. Vickers has scored top fives at Atlanta and Indy, a top 10 at the Glen and given his penchant for poles- he sure looks like the car to beat. Like the “00″ team, the “83″ is worlds apart better they were just two short years ago, but they need to learn how to close the deal.

IN- Juan Pablo Montoya. Of all the drivers in the top 12, the new darling of EGR has been perhaps the biggest surprise. JPM has had this knack for being that guy that you would say “How did HE get there?” It’s a little concerning that Montoya has no wins or top 5s, but what he has going for him is a road course and two track he knows quite well with Watkins Glen and Indianapolis and Michigan respectively.

OUT- Kyle Busch. Just kidding! Just kidding! Got your attention didn’t I? He’s on a serious streak of bad right now, but remember he swept the road courses last year, just missed a win at Bristol and he got Toyota their first win as a manufacturer at Atlanta. He’ll bounce back. Like Martin this driver and his team are too good to stay down long.

I didn’t intend this, but I guess I’m saying that the chase picture is set as it stands now. I didn’t intend that to be the case, but I guess that’s what I’m saying.

The thing about predictions, it’s good for conversation and speculation, but it does set up a person to be famously wrong. I’ve missed my guess before, and something tells me I’ll be off the mark with at least ONE of these predictions, but hey- it’s always interesting to take measure of trends and see how they hold up.

PHOTO CREDITS- All photos by amanda 480744. To see more of her work, visit flickr.com or click on the hyperlink.