Comparing this week to last, it’s a dang mess. Make no mistake about it, the plate races are wild card races. You can bet that the likes of Mark Martin and the boys at Roush (especially the ones not named Kenseth) are more than happy to return to a mile-and-a-halfer.
When preparing this week’s standings I once again have to ask myself whether I give more weight to wins and the total body of a driver’s season work, or do I lend more credence to consistent performance. To me, it’s just weird that the 2009 wins leaders (Kyle Busch and Mark Martin with 3 each) sit 8th and 13th (!) in the points at this writing.
By the same token, the front pack is a no-brainer. We’ve got racers with wins AND consistency- which is why they lead in the “real” standings….
#10- Kyle Busch (ranked 9th last week)- This was a really tough call. If you look at his last 5 races, his average finish is 11th. That ranks him behind the likes of Juan Pablo Montoya, Marcos Ambrose, Kasey Kahne and a still winless Carl Edwards. In his defense- we all know he had at least a top five car at Daytona…that’s another story.
#9- Juan Pablo Montoya (unranked last week)- This isn’t an easy call either. I’m ranking JPM over the series wins leaders and guys who actually rank above him in the season’s standings. He doesn’t even have a top five! BUT Montoya’s 8 top 10 finishes tie him for 6th among Cup drivers and he has an average finish of 8.2 over his last five events- an even better number than Jimmie Johnson’s 8.2. I don’t know how long he’ll stay here, but there’s no question the former open wheel stud has game this year.
#8- Kasey Kahne (ranked 10th last week)- If nothing else, Kahne gets points for getting out of the crash with Kyle Busch in one piece. Overall, his numbers are still solid- and the argument can be made that of late, Kahnester has outperformed Ryan Newman, Greg Biffle and Mark Martin. I look for the “9″ to benefit from the Chicago race.
#7- Matt Kenseth (unranked last week)- He wasn’t a real serious threat for the win at
Daytona, but the 8th place finish has to leave this Roush team feeling good. His 7 top 10 finishes tie him for 9th with Denny Hamlin and Brian Vickers- plus he has those two season opening wins. I’m not too sure of much of anything this season- but I would wager this: Matt Kenseth will be around at “chase time.”
#6- Denny Hamlin (uranked last week)- For once, Hamlin avoids bad luck by finishing 3rd at Daytona. Would you be surprised to know that Denny has 3 top 5s in his last 4 races? Thanks to Toyota and JGR, Hamlin’d got the horses to ride. I’d almost be willing to bet he’ll get a win before August is out. Return visits to Pocono and maybe even Watkins Glen might do the trick.
#5- Jeff Gordon (ranked 2nd last week)- Ouch! That 28th place finish puts some br
eathing room between Tony Stewart and Gordon, and for that matter, it also plays into the hands of Jimmie Johnson and Kurt Busch. Like Martin and Shrub, I expect Gordon will rebound, especially with “The Brickyard” and “The Glen” coming up.
#4- Carl Edwards (ranked 5th last week)- Cousin Carl is comin’ on! In his last 8 races, Edwards has 6 top 10s and and 5 top 5s. Not bad at all. It’s just weird to think that the guy who won 9 (!) races in 2008 is still on the schnide for 2009. I expect the next few weeks could change that.
#3- Kurt Busch (ranked 4th last week)- While his brother makes headlines, the 2004 champion just makes good finishes, with a 5th at Daytona. He’s not especially close to the top three in the season’s points, but that won’t matter at chase time. Wins will matter, and Busch is another driver who will benefit from the upcoming schedule with Pocono and Bristol on the horizon.
#2- Jimmie Johnson (ranked 3rd last week)- Don’t look now, but the sleeping giant is awake. If you just go by the last five races, only Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards have a better finishing average. You know how it goes with the “48″ team- the deeper in the schedule they go, the more the odds favor Johnson.
#1- Tony Stewart (ranked 1st last week)- You really can’t even think of giving this spot to someone else now. Look at his record: 2 wins, 10 top 5s and 14 top 10s. The re-set at chase time may change that, but then again, look at the races coming up: Chicago, Indy, Watkins Glen and Pocono. I’m about tempted to rubber stamp Smoke as my predicted winner for ALL these races. Am I going too far? Maybe not.
FALLING OFF THE PACE
Mark Martin- I think he’ll bounce back and I predict he’ll make the chase. Unfortunately, the plate tracks have been really nasty to “The Kid’s” fortunes…Greg Biffle- “Biff” is in another rough patch and this is a bad time for it…Ryan Newman- After a 5th place finish at Pocono, Newman has cooled big time. A return to his native midwest may help.
DISTANT THUNDER
By even his bosses admission, David Reutimann and his team are searching for 
consistency. While he’s gone a bit cold, Beak is still miles ahead of last year and still has a chance if he can string good finishes together and others hiccup…Their odds have lengthened, but I’m not ready to completely write off RCR stablemates Jeff Burton and Clint Bowyer. Amongst the misfortunes are moments where they appear to have recaptured the magic. Still- they’ve got to really dig deep and turn it on if they’re going to make it…Like Reutimann, Brian Vickers is on a roller coaster. When he’s good, he’s a threat to win. When he’s not….Marcos Ambrose is a surprise to a lot of people, but he isn’t to me. While he’s not likely making the chase, Ambrose is making serious strides and is certainly no worse than a top 20 performer. Watch for this guy to be in the mix with Gordon and Stewart at Watkins Glen. Jamie Mc Murray had a decent run at Daytona. If there’s an unluckier driver than Jamie Mac, I don’t know who it is. Thing is, the really good ones- the Johnsons, the Stewarts, the Gordons and the Busches- they make their luck.
PHOTO CREDITS- Kyle Busch by snickersracing, Matt Kenseth by s54901, Jeff Gordon’s car by liontattoo , David Reutimann by XSPimages. To see more, visit flickr.com, or click on the hyperlinks.
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