OK Gang- we’re doing a little something different. Back when I first started Bump Drafts, I would do a “track advance” column in the middle of the week, and then a “fearless forecast”- picking out the drivers to look for in victory lane.
“Previews ‘n’ Picks” gives us a little of both worlds. We’ll talk a little about the track itself and some of it history, and we’ll combine that with out picks for winning.
I hope you enjoy it
TRACK FACTS
If ever there were a track dreamed up in the laboratory of a mad scientist, it would be Pocono Raceway. At 2 1/2 miles, the Long Pond, Pennsylvania track rivals the superspeedways of Talladega and Daytona for distance. The first NASCAR Cup race ran at Pocono on August 4, 1974. “The King” was king that day as Richard Petty raced off to victory lane.
However- this track is nothing like its famed cousins. The triangular track looks a bit like a coat hanger. At turn one, you’ve got 14 degrees of banking to launch you on to a stretch that measures 3,o55 feet. At turn two, it’s 8 degrees of banking taking you in to a short stretch of 1,780 feet before taking on turn 3 with 6 degrees of banking that ushers you in to another long stretch of 3,740 feet.
Top performances: Given the dimensions, the laps are long. For perspective- Kasey Kahne set a qualifying record with a lap of 52.164 seconds (172.533 mph) for the June, 2004 race. The fastest race run here was by Rusty Wallace in July of 1996 in 3 hours, 27 minutes and 3 seconds, so it might prepare you well to hunker down to watch. In my experience, the race has a little bit of that marathon feel provided the rain doesn’t shorten the day, which has been known to happen.
Bill Elliott holds the track record for wins with 5. Tim Richmond, Rusty Wallace, Darrell Waltrip and Jeff Gordon have 4 wins each.
Elliott and Ken Schrader each have 5 career poles for the most at Pocono. 13 of
62 races at the track have been won from P-1. 44 of 62 winners have come from the top 10 in the starting grid.
Twice 13 caution flags have waved and once there was only 1 yellow flag waved. A record 42 drivers finished the rain-shortened spring, 2007 won by Jeff Gordon, in July of 1982, only 18 drivers were around at the end as Bobby Allison led the way to the checkered flag.
Where to catch it: This week’s event will be broadcast on TNT for a 6-race stretch with Bill Weber, Wally Dallenbach Jr. and Kyle Petty on the mikes. Coverage starts at 12:30 pm Eastern, 9:30 Pacific. Radio coverage can be found on MRN radio and Sirius. The green flag will wave at 2:00 pm Eastern, 11 am Pacific.
POCONO PICKS
Some drivers just have a knack for this place and all it weirdness. Denny Hamlin swept the 2006 season here- his first full season of Cup competition. Showing it was no fluke, Hamlin has a finishing average of 6.2- ranking him ahead of Jimmie Johnson (9.8), Jeff Gordon (10.3), Mark Martin (10.7) and Hamlin’s former teammate Tony Stewart (13.0).
Speaking of Martin- the ultimate “bride’s maid but never a bride” driver- has a record 19 top 5s and 31 top 10s, BUT NO VICTORIES. The way the season’s going for “The Kid”- that may all change. Don’t forget Martin was a serious contender for DEI last spring before a problematic pit stop fouled things up.
Pole-sitting has never been Smoke’s specialty, but Tony Stewart does the honors this week by virtue of being points leader and Mother Nature’s decision to rain on qualifying. Considering consistency, the Hendrick horsepower under his hood and Mother Nature’s maddening tendency to alter the length of the race, this may be the week Stewart kicks the door down for Stewart- Haas (Update: Stewart crashed in Saturday morning practice and will have to start in the back with a back-up car).
If you’re leaning more towards something resembling a dark horse, may I suggest the 2008 winners here: Kasey Kahne and Carl Edwards. Both start a skosh deep in the field at 14th and 11th respectively, but I especially like Kahne’s chances given his record of success at Pocono and momentum garnered from Dover.
Jimmie Johnson? Kyle Busch? Jeff Gordon? They’re just good everywhere. we’ve already talked about Gordon’s history here, and he’ll have the luxury of being closer to the front and less wear and tear on his back- thanks to the Friday rainouts. Johnson ran the table in 2004, and ran a top 5 and a top 10 last season.
While Kyle Busch had a disastrous 2008 at Pocono- finishing 43rd and 36th- I would not want to be the one to rule him out and be wrong. One can’t help but think that sharing notes with Hamlin couldn’t hurt here.
It’ll be interesting to see how Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Joey Logano run. There’s a glimmer of rising fortunes with both drivers. Logano’s finishing average of 12.2 over his last 5 starts bodes well for him, along with seat time in the ARCA race. Junior’s first outing with new pit boss Lance Mc Grew was a big swing in the right direction and this kind of track suits Earnhardt’s style.
Narrowing it down- I’m really watching Smoke, Kyle, Kahne, Johnson, Newman and
Hamlin. Among these- Stewart, Kahne, Johnson and Hamlin have to be thought of as serious favorites.
It’s a tight group. Getting a clean air start will be huge for Stewart, a guy who’s used to rallying from further back. Kahne has to be confident with an engine more stout and a good finish last week. It’s step up time for the Bud man as the 2009 season sits half way to the chase. After last week’s sad ending for Hamlin, this race couldn’t come at a better time. Johnson is Johnson and that doesn’t bode well for the competition.
My heart says Hamlin, but my head says go with Jimmie Johnson. He was in a zone at Dover, and for him, those kind of races have a way of carrying over. I confess I was starting question whether or not my pre-season selection of Johnson to win a 4th straight championship was wise, but I’m feeling a little better about it now.
This week, the mind rules the heart and I pick Jimmie Johnson as the 2009 winner of the Pocono 500.
PHOTO CREDITS- Upper left photo by dngallphoto, middle right by colleen0313, Martin’s car by BigDawg 1511, Kahne by countrychic429. To see more, click on the hyperlinks or visit flickr.com.
{ 4 comments }
I like your comparison of it looking like a coat hanger, I was disappointed this weekend that it rained today, because I live in the Poconos, and this is the one time I go out to the race track! :)
And yes, I did like the Preview n Picks format, reading up on the track history, and the picks for this weekend its great for sure!
The biggest thing this track has going for it, are two Cup dates. Lose one of them, & it would resemble a giant white elephant.
I can’t believe you gave no consideration whatsoever to the 2 car.
In no particular order I’d pick the 11, the 18, the 2, the 48 and the 39 for the top five.
@Robert. The good news for you is that races aren’t won on paper. You got a good list.
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