If Darlington Raceway is the “Lady In Black”, she has a male counterpart in “Miles The Monster” in Dover International Speedway. Listening to the drivers talk, you can hear a mix of an excitement combined with a bit of trepidation ordinarily reserved for a Bristol or a Darlington.
It’s a different gig here with it combination of 24-degree banking in the turns, its concrete surface, combined with a one-mile distance. It gives you the feeling like it was a concept cooked up in a mad scientist’s laboratory.
Among active drivers, Jeff Gordon, Mark Martin and Bill Elliott all lead with 4 victories each. Gordon and Martin earned their wins in the late 90s at what was arguably the peak of their careers. Same for Elliott back in the 1980’s. The semi-retired 1988 champion won’t be here this Sunday.
Both “The Kid” and the “Wonder Boy” will have a fair amount to overcome to win the “Autism Speaks” 400. Martin ran 28th in practice and qualified 27th. It’s not impossible to start deep in the field and win- 7 of 78 race winners have started 19th or worse. Kyle Petty’s 1995 victory came after starting 37th for Felix Sabates.
This will be comforting for Gordon, who will be racing in a back-up car after stress testing the wall in qualifying. What will also bear watching is how the 4-time champion’s back holds out on this kind of track.
Kyle Busch and Greg Biffle were winners here in 2008. Shrub starts from the top
10 and he also ran top 10 in practice. In 8 Dover starts, Busch has 5 top 5s, so certainly he’s a guy you’ve got to figure on running out front. The Biff is a beast here with a 4.9 average finish over the last 5 years and TWO wins. Like Busch, Biffle ran top 10 in practice and qualifying.
Biffle has teammates that are to be reckoned with in the land of crab cakes. Carl Edwards is coming off an encouraging top-5 run at Lowe’s and he’s second only to Biffle in terms of average finish at DIS. Edwards has been a horse here and he’ll need to do that again considering his 2009 season has had the wobbles. While not spectacular on Friday, both have been solid and have the veteran smarts to get up front and stay there. Neither need a road map to find victory lane at Dover either.
There’s a lot of young guns in the front pack to start the race. Kasey Kahne has the outside pole alongside David Reutimann, Juan Pablo Montoya starts third, Reed Sorenson fourth, A.J. Allmendinger sixth and Brian Vickers ninth. What to make of this, I’m not sure. Kahne’s got that new Dodge engine under his lid. Another plus is the fact that Kahne has run well enough here to win, but a combination of factors have prevented that. No doubt Vickers and Allmendinger have shown flashes of promise in 2009, while Reutimann comes in with momentum at his back and JPM firmly planted himself in the top 15 with his recent runs.
Speaking of the Dodge engines, never count out Kurt Busch. His history at Dover is one of starting well (average start of 7.0 over last 5 seasons) but not finishing well (average 5-year finish of 22.1) .
When it comes to not counting people out, you can’t count out the likes of Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman. The Stewart – Haas tandem of Hoosiers are the best drivers to not yet win this season, and people a lot smarter than me say this will be Newman’s week to kick the door down. On the other hand, Stewart has not looked good so far in Dover. What Smoke has going for him is he and crew chief Darian Grubb have had a knack for adjusting the car to to the good. Another driver/chief tandem known for working magic is Johnson and Knaus. Johnson has a good history and a good car for Sunday’s race.
You can see there are a number of good possibilities to choose from when it comes to picking a winner. Maybe there’s too many choices. Narrowing it down, I happen to like Kasey Kahne’s chances, as I do Ryan Newman’s, Carl Edwards’, Greg Biffle’s and Johnson’s.
HOWEVER- I’m going to go down the “no guts, no glory” road and go with
David Reutimann to get career win number two more quickly than victory number one came.
Doubters will say, “How can you go with a guy whose one career win came on a pit call in a rain-shortened race?” Confidence breeds more confidence and “Double Ought” has got it. He starts out front, he was good off the truck, and his 7 top 10 qualifiers tell me the team has been building a good car for Buzzy’s boy. I believe Reutimann will also be eager to prove his success is no fluke either. If he falters, keep your eyes on Kahne, Newman or Biffle.
One of the positives is that 2009 has been a season that has produced good finishes for more than the usual suspects. When it comes to “unusual suspects” they may not get any more unique than the 39-year-old 3rd journeyman from Zephyr Hills, Florida.
PHOTO CREDITS- Miles by nflravens. Biffle by plstt. Newman car by StewartHaas Fan. David & Buzzy Reutimann courtesy of Jason Smith/Getty Images for NASCAR Media.
