They say “hindsight is 20/20″. In NASCAR circles, it is supposedly statistical wisdom that says 80% of the drivers in the top 12 will still be there after the late summer race at Richmond.
Let us, for a moment, go back in time to the weeks preceding the waving of the green flag at the Daytona 500. If you look at my February 5 post on the 2009 “Fearless Forecast”, you’ll see I had the following drivers making the chase in no particular order:
Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson, Greg Biffle, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kyle Busch, Jeff Gordon, Jamie Mc Murray, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Tony Stewart, Mark Martin and Kasey Kahne.
My pick for champion- Jimmie Johnson with the 4-peat.
Now, let’s fast forward to today. If we knew then what we know now, we’d know that Kevin Harvick is in a monster tailspin. Jamie Mc Murray is still trying to deliver on his potential. Dale Jr’s pre-2005 mojo is still on the truck.
Saying that the 2009 season thus far has delivered a bit of the unexpected is a bit like saying the Pope is a little Catholic. Nonetheless, I can’t help but give in to the temptation to ponder who of today’s top 12 will still be there at the outset of this season’s final 10 races, now that we’re out of “turn one” for the 2009 season.
Play along and see if you agree. The driver’s current points standing is in parentheses:
Rock Solid
1. Jeff Gordon (1st)- He’s already bounced back from the misfortunes of Phoenix and Talladega. I dare say he’s a threat for the championship.
2. Kurt Busch (2nd)- I really missed with the Blue Deuce. The new engine has lifted “Big Shrub’s” fortunes and he’s been pretty darn consistent.
3. Tony Stewart (3rd)- As you can see, I had him to make the chase, but I’ll admit I wasn’t thinking he’d be an upper tier contender. Mark my words, Smoke may yet win his 3rd title this year. Among teams, there’s no longer a “Big Four” thanks to Stewart- Haas Racing and the resurgence of Penske.
4. Kyle Busch (5th)- You could this nickname the list of monickers for Kurt’s younger brother- “The Extreme.” Either he’s really on or he’s really off. But when he’s on? Oh baby!
5. Jimmie Johnson (6th)- You really don’t thinking he’s going away do you? My original prediction he’d pick up a 4th consecutive title may be in doubt, but I have no doubt he’ll be no less than a top 5 at season’s end.
Looking Good But Not A Lock
1. Denny Hamlin (4th)- His finishes are as mercurial as his personality. Fortunately, his 22nd at Talladega and his 14th at Richmond are as close as you can come to saying that he’s had back-to-back bad finishes. Another week or two of sub- top 10’s, and I migth get concerned about how Hamlin will handle the adversity.
2. Jeff Burton (7th)- True to form, “The Mayor” just keeps going about his business and you have no idea of what he’s accomplished until you read the race results or the updated standings. The only real concern with Burton is the fact this has not been a good season for Richard Childress Racing, and one can only hope the bug doesn’t infect J.B.
A Little Shaky
1. Carl Edwards (9th)- I can’t be the only one thinking his results haven’t lived up to the hype for this year. Frankly- there was a time before Speed Week where I was prepared to pick Edwards as my pick for the Cup title. I still tend to think he’ll overcome this little bump in the road, but fortunes will need to reverse soon.
Not Full Convinced But….
1. Ryan Newman (10th)- “Rocket” has really found a higher gear since a pedestrian start to the season. I’ll be a little more convinced if he can sustain this run he’s on now. But the real question I’m thinking of now is who is going to victory lane first- Stewart, or Newman? It MIGHT be Newman.
In Jeopardy
1. Clint Bowyer (8th)- After a good start, Bowyer’s fortunes have hit the wall. An average finish of 22 is not going to cut it. Oh well, it could be worse, he’s having a better season than Harvick and Mears. Not trying to be melodramatic, just keeping it real. Things aren’t looking good in the “33″ camp right now.
2. Greg Biffle (11th)- What is it with these Roush guys anyway? If nobody outside the top 12 determines to make a run at it, Biffle will be safe. On the other hand, his team’s performance is all over the board and makes him a sitting duck for anyone making a strong run.
3. Matt Kenseth (12th)- Kenseth could be the Kasey Kahne of 2009. Last year, Kahne won two points races, and inconsistency shut him out of a title run. The thing about Kenseth is that consistency is his strength instead of piling up wins a la Shrub. The consistency isn’t there right now.
He’ll Get There Somehow
1. Mark Martin (15th)- In the spirit of Joe Namath, I am guaranteeing Mark Martin will be in the Chase. The bad luck is behind him and he’s had a pretty good car almost every week.
If They Put It Together, Maybe….
1. David Reutimann (13th)- Before Talladega, I was convinced Reutimann was getting in. The last two weeks cast doubt on that belief. Everyone will have an off-week or two. Now it’s time to see if “The Franchise” can bounce back.
2. Juan Pablo Montoya (14th)- Like Reutimann, JPM has had a bad race or two, but has looked quite promising at other times. Like Reutimann, Montoya needs to take it to the next level, like get some top 5s and maybe a win or two to really make a serious play for it.
If things break, I suppose it’s not completely insane to think Brian Vickers, Dale Earnhardt Jr., or maybe even Marcos Ambrose, Kasey Kahne or A.J. Allmendinger could break into the mix. If it’s going to happen, though, the time is now.
Now that I’ve given myself a mulligan, we’ll see how it all plays out. 2009 has delivered a few surprises.
What hasn’t happened yet is someone hasn’t taken the bull by the horns and really taken matters into their own hands, at least where the 8-12 spots are concerned.
At the top, the first five I mentioned are the most serious threats for the Cup.
It’ll be fun to see how this plays out.
