There’s been a statistic floating around that 80% of the drivers in the top 12 right now will stay there by “chase time.” I’d say I see about 8, maybe 9 guys who look pretty solid, but behind them are maybe 5-7 drivers who could be heard from before it’s over.
This season has been a real roller coaster ride. Right now, in my humble opinion- Tony Stewart, Jeff Burton, Mark Martin and Ryan Newman are hot. Carl Edwards, Kasey Kahne and Jimmie Johnson are not. Then- in between- you’ve got drivers like Kyle Busch, Jeff Gordon, Kurt Busch and Denny Hamlin who’ll have their bad days, and then bounce right right back.
This could one of those years that defies conventional wisdom.
Here’s the way I see it, trying to balance hot streaks with the overall body of 2009 work:
#10- Greg Biffle (ranked 6th last week)- This was the hardest spot of all to determine. Matt Kenseth has two wins that “The Biff” does not, plus Matt the Brat had a better finish (13th) than Biffle’s 17th. BUT Biffle is 5 places higher in terms of average finish in the last 5 races, plus he is one place higher in the points. See what I mean? Kenseth may break through eventually, but right now, I give the nod to Biffle.
#9- Mark Martin (ranked 9th last week)- Here’s a guy 15th in the points, but I really think he’ll be in the chase. When he stays clear of trouble, he’s awesome…but talk about a driver with bad luck. He’s got 5 top 10s, and 4 finishes of 30th or worse. I’m inclined to think that “The Kid” will even it out.
#8- Jimmie Johnson (ranked 2nd last week)- After a nice run of 4 straight top 5s, Johnson has had a nightmarish two race run with two finishes of 30th or worse. Anybody else, and it wouldn’t be a big deal, but Johnson has a higher standard. In a way- I fear for the rest of the field. I don’t think he’ll be down long. Lowe’s is right around the corner.
#7- Denny Hamlin (ranked 5th last week)- You know what would concern me about Hamlin? I’d be concerned he’d carry the baggage of a missed shot at winning last weekend for far too long. I think I’d have a little sit down with Denny if I were Coach Gibbs and try and turn this little bit of misfortune into motivation.
#6- Jeff Burton (ranked 8th last year)- Every dang year he does this. You just forget he’s even racing, and then suddenly, you look in the rear view mirror and ask “How did HE get there?” I’ll tell you how “The Mayor” got here: he hasn’t finished worse than 15th since California. Jeff Gordon can’t say that, Kurt Busch can’t say that, Tony Stewart, can’t say that, Kyle Busch…..get the picture?
#5- Ryan Newman (ranked 7th last week)- Well, look who’s at the party now? He’s got a pair of top 5s in a row and He’s averaged an 8.8 average finish over his last 5 races. At the rate he’s going, he just might beat his boss to victory lane.
#4- Kurt Busch (ranked 3rd last week)- His 12th place finish had to be a bit of a disappointment, but still, the elder Busch is HUGELY improved over where he was last year. Kurt’s lookin’ more and more like a guy who’ll run for a Cup. Busch is tied for third with Jimmie Johnson with 6 top 10s.
#3- Jeff Gordon (ranked 3rd last week)- After a pair of disastrous runs, the 8th place finish at Richmond was a bounce back effort. He regains the points lead from Kurt Busch. The only knock I have on his performance is that he doesn’t have Kyle Busch’s wins, and he doesn’t quite have the recent consistency of Tony Stewart.
#2- Kyle Busch (ranked 10th last week)- Wild Thing’s mercurial jump is pretty emblematic of his season and his temperament. The win at Richmond marked the end of a 4-race span where Busch finished 24th, 18th, 17th and 25th. That’s all behind him now.
#1- Tony Stewart (ranked 4th last week)- I’m big on wins, but man, you have to give Smoke props. Stewarth has 4 top 5s in his last 5 races and his 7 top 10s ties him for the series lead with Jeff Gordon. Let there be no doubt that he is the real deal and a serious contender for a championship. This is no fluke. The wins will follow- it’s just a matter now of whether he or teammate Ryan Newman will get there first.
READY TO STRIKE
Carl Edwards, Clint Bowyer, and Matt Kenseth may all be going through a tough patch, but that can all change in Martinsville lap. Of the three, Bowyer may be the most vulnerable as it just looks like the wheels are off the RCR wagon. I’d rate Kenseth as the driver with the best odds of bouncing back.
Juan Pablo Montoya keeps waiting in the weeds. This year is a marked improvement over 2008…David Reutimann has fallen off of late, but I wouldn’t write him off just yet.
DISTANT THUNDER
“Sudden” Sam Hornish has shown signs of life…Marcos Ambrose is showing promise and with his background, he and Montoya could make things interesting in Sonoma.
PHOTO CREDIT- Photo by Adomas Maximus. To see more, visit flickr.com.
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Great job, as always on this post. You have reasoned your rankings out very well.
Personally speaking, I think AJ Allmendinger could be added to the “distant thunder” list. Although he has had some bad luck in the last few races, I tend to agree with Richard Petty in that he “gets it.” He has learned a little faster than Hornish has, and I think he may pass him in points later in the season. But, of course, I could be wrong, as often I am in my predictions.