Did you see the Nationwide race? How crazy was that? I did NOT think David Ragan would sneak up and take the checkered flag. How about Tony Raines, one of NASCAR’s true journeymen getting a top 5 in an underfunded car? That my friends is restrictor plate racing and it goes to show you what a crapshoot it is to pick a winner.
Picking a winner for a NASCAR under any circumstances a shot in the dark, an educated guess at best. As one who observes the world of NASCAR and opines on it, it’s just fun to see how the scenarios you anticipate play out.
Ever since the unknown Richard Brickhouse led a field comprised largely of replacement drivers (the regulars thought the track too unsafe) to the checkered flag in 1969, Talladega has just been one of those place where anything can happen. Alongside the likes of Pearson, Earnhardt and Yarborough, other winners at Talladega have included Brian Vickers, Bobby Hillin, Lennie Pond, Ron Bouchard and Dick Brooks.
Could this weekend’s race produce another dark horse winner? What about a David Ragan sweep?
Out of 79 races run at Talladega, 18 have been won from the #2 position. Greg
Biffle has to be liking that. Logically speaking, Biffle has had a stout car in 2009 and he appears to be out the other side of a horrific 3-race horror show.
If you want to go “dark horse” there are two good pick from EGR. Juan Pablo Montoya captured the pole for this race (13 winners have won from the pole). Last spring, he finished second. Unlike many of his peers, Montoya thrives at the plate tracks and road courses and doesn’t fare as well at the intermediates. Teammate Martin Truex Jr. sits just behind Montoya in the second row. The #1 is also coming off a good finish at Phoenix.
Other unlikely names starting near the front include “Sudden” Sam Hornish Jr. and David Ragan. Speaking of the newly minted Nationwide winner, the son of former driver Ken Ragan has two top 5s in his 4 starts. It’s cool to see Scott Speed, Brad Keselowski and Regan Smith up close and personal- but they got there in qualifying trim, so I’m not sure we can expect them to be factor for long. You may remember, if not called for a line violation, Smith and not Tony Stewart would have been last Fall’s winner. 59 of 79 (72.2%) Talladega winners have come from the top 10 starting positions.
Having draft help will be critical here. Three Hendrick teammates made the top 15- Mark Martin at 7th, Junior at 11th and Gordon at 14th. The Richard Childress crew has to be feeling better after qualifying. Clint Bowyer qualified 5th, Casey Mears 15th, Kevin Harvick 19th and Jeff Burton 20th. For the draft, having a teammate handy is nice, but then it always seems there are certain drivers that everyone wants for a draft partner. Dale Earnhardt Jr.- with that seemingly in-born ability to draft is always a Talladega favorite with other drivers, as is Tony Stewart- who had 5 second place finishes at Talladega before winning in October, 2008.
By the way- just an odd little note- do you know that one race winner started all the way back at 36th here? It Was Jeff Gordon back in 2000. That has to be comforting for none other than Gordon’s teammate Jimmie Johnson, whose car just looked off in qualifying this morning.
Everybody loves tony Stewart as a favorite to win this race. I can’t blame them. The Rushville Rocket is in a zone right now. You can’t ignore Gordon’s record of 6 wins, which leads active drivers on the victory list.
Me? I’m going sentimental. Dale Earnhardt Jr. is just a beast on restrictor plate tracks.
Drafting help- which he’ll have plenty of- is abundant. Confidence- also important- is something Junior’s not lacking. And he’s just due.
For all we know, David Ragan could pull off the weekend sweep. David Reutimann could get his first career Cup win, although I’m concerned about how much help he’ll have in the draft. Never count out the Busch brothers. Kurt’s on a nice run and Kyle is Kyle- meaning he can win anywhere, although personally I thought he acted like an ass…again…..after the Nationwide. You know, some days I really like the guy. Others? ARGH! I digress.
Did anyone notice how good Joey Logano looked? This has been a good weekend for him so far, and as long as he doesn’t do to another driver what he did to Michael Waltrip in the Nationwide, he should be fine.
So there you have it. There’s not real clear cut favorite, and some may call me a homer (though again, I should mention that Junior is not at the TOP of my favorites list……
I’m picking Dale Earnhardt Jr. to win the Aaron’s 499 at Talladega.
PHOTO CREDITS- All photos from this weekend are by <3Jennifer<3. To see more of her work, click on the hyperlink, or visit flickr.com.
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I wish that I read this article before I had to turn in my Fantasy team picks on Thursday. I forgot that JPM is a good restrictor plate racer. Several of the top restrictor plate racers draft with him too. He must have earned their respect.
I hope that Jr does well. He needs to regain his confidence.
I really hope that the teams and drivers do not decide to ‘hang’ back until the end. They owe it to the fans to race and put on a show.
Too True……………As it turns out, your dark horse. Wasn’t dark enough. Good Call
At least he did nt miss his pitt stall in the cup race this time.