We’ve got more mid-to-front pack movement than Talladega based on last week’s outcome at Phoenix. Jeff Gordon had his first truly lousy finish of the season, Tony Stewart keeps showing up near the front with his old buddy Kurt Busch and Jimmie Johnson seems to have hit stride. Meanwhile the RCR cars are off their usual standard performance, while Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch have been suspiciously quiet.
The Top 10
#10 – Kyle Busch (5th last week)- How weird is it that the wins leaders (Busch, Kenseth) are 7th and 12th in the points? If you look over the last 5 races, Busch’s average finish is 15.6. The last 4? 15.0 The last 3? 19.6. The wins have to account for something, but the dude’s headed in the wrong direction. He’s just a nose in front of Carl Edwards. Busch has the wins, plus 3 top 5s. Edwards has just one top 5.
#9- David Reutimann (unranked last week)- It’d be a little easier to hop on the “Beak Bandwagon” if he ran closer to the front more often, but give him credit for this, the fall off people keep expecting isn’t happening. What will get real interesting is what happens in the draft at Talladega. The only thing Shrub has on Reutimann lately is the wins. Otherwise, the “00″ is more consistent.
#8- Clint Bowyer (4th last week)- For the season, Bowyer’s 6th in the points. Over the last 5 races, Bowyer, like Busch is headed the wrong way. Bowyer really looked good heading into the short tracks, but he’s really fallen off with finishes of 22nd and 26th in his last two races.
#7- Jeff Burton (10th last week)- While “The Mayor’s” 15th place finish doesn’t make you hoop and holler, his number of late are still slightly better than his teammate Bowyer, Reutimann, and Busch- but not by much. It will be a very curious thing to see how the RCR boys fair at Talladega after some rough outings of late. Burton’s really not the first guy you think of when it comes to restrictor plate racing.
#6- Mark Martin (unranked last week)- He’s the man of the moment for his win at Phoenix, but let’s not forget what he’s done prior. Martin is riding a streak of 4 consecutive top 10s, and has an average finish of 10th over his last 5 races, which ranks “Double M” 6th.
#5- Denny Hamlin (7th last week)- What can you say about Hamlin, but when he’s on, he’s on. When he’s not….Over the last 5 races, Denny Hamlin has an average finish of 7.0, thanks largely to the 2nd place finishes at Bristol and Martinsville.
#4- Kurt Busch (6th last week)- The Blue Deuce has had good staying power this season, a major reversal of fortunes from 2008. I’m guessing Busch is loving the new Dodge engines. Don’t look now, but he may ready for a title run.
#3- Jeff Gordon (1st last week)- There’s a new king of the hill in the BDS Top 10. Gordon is only trails Tony Stewart by a fender. The sad part is Jeff Gordon was running top 5 most of the race before Lady Luck put a hex on him.
#2- Tony Stewart (3rd last week)- Look at his line over the last 3 races: 3rd at Martinsville, 4th at Texas, and 2nd at Phoenix. This week, Smoke could kick the door down at Talladega. With Hendrick horsepower, he’s got the juice to do it.
#1- Jimmie Johnson (2nd last week)- I don’t think any justification is required. He’s got the Martinsville win, 5 consecutive top 10s, 4 straight top 5s. What can you say? If Martin is the man of the moment, Johnson is the man of the month.
FALLING OFF THE PACE
Carl Edwards…really, Carl’s not out by much with 3 straight 10th place finishes. Edwards could really use a good run at ‘Dega…..Matt Kenseth…throw out the 5th place finish at Texas and his fortunes are seriously headed south.
READY TO STRIKE
Edwards could be back if Kyle Busch stumbles and he can put it together….Greg Biffle…he has two straight top 5s, but is still overcoming a nightmarish 3 race stretch at Atlanta, Bristol and Martinsville…Kasey Kahne…he’s fallen back a bit it’s safe to say he’s no worse than a solid top 15.
DISTANT THUNDER
Finishing 24th at Phoenix really hurt a potential advance by Juan Pablo Montoya, who is 15th in the points…Martin Truex Jr. pulled off a nice run at Phoenix, and may be a good candidate for a good run at Talladega.
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