With three wins in a row at Phoenix, a bloody genius for a crew chief and mad skills, it would be all too easy just to mail it in and say Jimmie Johnson will win yet again at Phoenix.
Don’t look now, but J.J. has been topping the speed charts and he sits just inside the top 10 on the starting grid. Make no mistake, when he starts out this good, Jimmie Johnson usually finishes this good. Let’s not forget, Johnson darn near stole the last race on the tour from his mentor, teammate and friend Jeff Gordon. The guy’s just a beast, and quite possibly the driver of the decade.
On the other hand- I don’t think Jimmie Johnson will win tomorrow.
Oh, he’ll do well. In fact, I’d be a bit surprised if Johnson didn’t get a top 10, no make it top 5 run. I just happen to think he’s got a load of competition, good competition who has the horses and the confidence to make this a race.
It’s too easy to forget pole sitter Mark Martin just missed a win here last spring. What’s more, HMS’ “ancient mariner” has the record for top 5s at PIR and is tied for all-time top 10s with Jeff Gordon. Martin knows this track like he knows his own “old man” smell.
Kyle Busch, who holds the record being the youngest race winner at Phoenix, is another force to reckon with. There’s only 312 laps to work with so there’s no time to mess around trying to race from the back. Starting on the outside pole, Shrub has done himself a big-time favor, and well, he’s Kyle Busch.
The dude can win anywhere.
How about Tony Stewart? With all his open wheel experience, he knows this track as good as Martin. He’s also rock solid, even though he typically doesn’t come alive until after Memorial Day, ol’ Smoke Johnson is right there in the lead pack.
Of course, thinking of Tony Stewart makes me think of his old teammate Denny Hamlin. He starts from 12th, he’s run tremendously well for a guy who’s never won at PIR, and heck, he’s even got a special March of Dimes paint scheme.
You want dark horse picks? The idea of picking David Reutimann is almost getting old, but once again, “The Franchise” is looking for a personal best here. For a young guy, Brian Vickers knows this track well, though he wasn’t especially racey in practice.
For a real serious dark horse- how about Regan Smith? It’s way to easy to forget this driver has done some pretty impressive things for a guy doesn’t seem to have accomplished too many impressive things yet. Do you know Regan Smith has never had a DNF? That’s right- in 44 starts, Smith has finished every race he’s started.
Smith was 7th and Happy Hour and qualified in the top 10. It’d be pretty cool for a driver who races for Denver-based Furniture Row racing to get his first career win in the west.
OK- time to quite screwing around and pick a winner.
Jeff Gordon is my pick for winning the Subway Fresh Fit 500. He’s sharing the 
second row with Kurt Busch, he was third in Happy Hour and 6th in morning practice.
Gordon appears to be on one of those runs right now, in basketball, we’d say he’s in a zone. The 4-time champion has finished no worse than 13th this year, he’s confident, the team is confident and Steve Letarte is making good calls.
If he doesn’t win it, the win will go to another Hendrick driver. You have to have some guts to make a call not involving Jimmie Johnson, but that’s why I call this the “Fearless Forecast”. If it’s not Gordon or Johnson, then look no further than their venerable teammate Mark Martin. You can’t help but think if a win doesn’t come for “Double M” here, he’ll get it somewhere this year.
Before I go, here is something to think about. Something that makes you remember that this really is a wide open race just about anybody can win: only TWO drivers have won from the pole in 25 races. Only 8 come from the first 5 qualifying spots. 48 percent of the race winners at Phoenix International Raceway have come from the 12th to 25th spots on the starting grid!
I won’t argue that Jimmie Johnson’s not the favorite, but it really is anybody’s race.
PHOT CREDITS- top left by Albert Fattal. Jeff and Ingrid by s54901. To see more from these photographers, click on the hyperlink or visit flickr.com.
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