College basketball isn’t the only place that experiences March Madness. I’m looking for some good old-fashioned smash mouth racing at Martinsville.
If the Friday fireworks between Martin Truex and David Stremme are any indication IN PRACTICE NO LESS, then we’ve got a heckuva show in store. It’s fashionable among the NASCAR chatter class to go with Jimmie Johnson or Jeff Gordon as a favorite, but I’m thinking there are some other drivers you’d do well to keep your eyes on.
Denny Hamlin. The product of Chesterfield, VA won this spring race last year and in 7 Martinsville starts, Hamlin has an average finish of 8.9.
Verdict: CONTENDER
Kyle Busch. Now let me start by saying, that with each passing season, Busch checks off his list a place he hasn’t won before. Tomorrow could be a day he figures out a place that saw him run 38th and 29th in 2008. He’ll do better- but the law of averages aren’t with Wild Thing in my mind.
Verdict: PRETENDER
Juan Pablo Montoya. Here’s an intriguing dark horse pick. Montoya seems to be developing a skill for the short tracks. In fact, it strikes me as interesting that a couple of road course studs like JPM and Marcos Ambrose ran well last week. Montoya’s never been one to shy away from contact, it’s just a matter of not hitting so hard that the payback is too nasty. The Colombian was also 4th on the practice charts Friday.
Verdict: a dark horse CONTENDER
Kurt Busch. No I’m not a Busch hater. He’s got his starting position (outside pole) working for him, plus he was good in practice (9th). History is a bit of an issue: Busch just one top 10 in his last 8 Martinsville starts.
Verdict: PRETENDER
Jimmie Johnson. By now, you’ve heard ad nauseam how Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon own this track. Johnson has 5 (including 4 of the last 5) wins in south Virginia and Gordon 7. In the last 5 seasons, Johnson has an impressive average finish of 2.8. 2.8! His practice speeds were a bit pedestrian by the “48’s” high standards, but if anyone can make a so-so car better the dynamic duo of Jimmie Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus can.
Verdict: CONTENDER
Greg Biffle. In my mind, the Biff is one of the truly underrated drivers out there. Think about it- he has a CTS title, a Busch Series championship plus 14 Cup wins. Unfortunately, Biffle’s in a bit of a funk , this track hasn’t been good to him, and I don;t look for fortunes to improve tomorrow.
Verdict: PRETENDER
Other contenders?: Tony Stewart has earned 4 top 5s here in his last 5 starts. His teammate/ employee Ryan Newman ran a nice 8th on the practice charts Friday. Clint Bowyer, by virtue of the points standings starts out with good track position- another item that will be key on the Paper Clip. His RCR teammates Kevin Harvick ran well in practice, it’ just his 12th place starting is wee bit on the low side. According to some stats I found on Jayski’s, 72% of Martinsville race winners have come from the top 10 starters. Mark Martin could be a real factor with all that wisdom and experience, but he’ll have his hands full coming from further afield.
Other pretenders?: RFR teammates Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth are both a little off kilter. Fortunately the pair will have favorable starting spots. Kasey Kahne, with only 2 top 10s in his last 8 starts at Martinsville has not had a good track record here. Bobby Labonte’s been good in the past- even has a win at Martinsville- but he’s been pretty ordinary since Las Vegas. Dale Earnhardt Jr. will continue getting better, but I’m not buying the idea that he’s a serious contender for the “W.”
Other dark horses: You’ve gotta like the feel good story of David Reutimann. He was great in practice, but he’s generally NOT run well here. Marcos Ambrose is coming off a nice Bristol run, he’s got a lot of moxy and this could be another great week for the “Tasmanian Devil.”
OK Gordon fans, I hear the screaming….WHAT ABOUT JEFF GORDON? I’m glad you asked. The 2009 points leader has just been a rock from Daytona on. I’ve seen this kind of performance before and I wouldn’t be quite so fast just to hand this year’s trophy to Jimmie, Carl, or Kyle Busch. Gordon also has those 7 wins we’ve been talking about and an average finish of 2-point-stinkin’-5. In fact when it comes to the Rainbow Warrior…
Verdict: PROJECTED RACE WINNER
Note to readers:CONTEST TIME!!!!!
The good folks at No Fear Energy have graciously offered a nice cache of prizes for me to give away this week, starting Monday. Look for contest details in tomorrow’s post. There’ll be some cool daily prize and a grand prize package.
STAY TUNED FOR DETAILS.
