Fearless Forecast: A Look At The Numbers Points To A Possible First- Time Bristol Winner

Here’s a Bristol number for you: 22. Of the 96 races won at Thunder Valley, 22 have been won from the pole. While we’re on the subject of numbers, remember that only 14 have won from P-1 in Atlanta, technically NO ONE has at Vegas because Kyle Busch REALLY won from the back of the field. ONE pole qualifier has won a race at Auto Club, while 15 have won from the pole at Daytona.

Since 2000, 4 of 18 races have been won from the pole. Rusty Wallace, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards have all accomplished the feat. The number may not look all that impressive until you consider it compare it to the 4 other tracks where races have been so far this season.

Here’s another Bristol number for you: 79. 79 Bristol races winners have come from the top 10 starting grid positions. Kind of paints a picture doesn’t it? You can win from further afield, like Elliott Sadler (38th in the 2001 Food City 500) or Dale Earnhardt Jr. (30th in the 2004 Sharpie 500) did, it those don’t come often in the full contact racing from Bristol.

Ryan Newman makes an intriguing dark horse pick. It bodes well for the struggling driver that he’s on the outside pole and second fastest in practice.

David Reutimann also merits dark horse consideration- starting 6th and fastest in Friday practice. Flip flop Beak’s numbers and you have what Mark Martin did on Friday. For “The Kid” it’s his 7th career pole, a reminder of what prognosticators had in mind when Martin came over from DEI to Hendrick.

If you’re looking for a long shot- how about Dave Blaney? This go or go homer for car owner Phil Parsons is in the top 10 grid, and he was 14th in practice. Other guys who had good Fridays but are not the first you think of when it comes to performance are Reed Sorenson (qualifying 7th), J.P. Montoya (12th on the grid and 5th on the practice chart), and Elliott Sadler (4th in practice).

History suggests Kurt Busch and Jeff Gordon would be solid picks. Both have 5 Bristol wins. Gordon fought a tight car in practice, but has looked like solid top 10 material. The “elder” Busch brother seems to be coming back down to Earth after his victory in Atlanta.

The RCR crew finished 1-2-3 last Spring. Jeff Burton, Clint Bowyer, Kevin Harvick and Childress newbie Casey Mears are all 30th or worse on the grid. Harvick’s car was horrible in practice, Bowyer was 9th on the chart and Burton and Mears were pretty non-descript. At the same time, we know this race is all about being there at the end, and there’s few better than Harvick, Burton and Bowyer at hanging around “go time.”

As you can see, there are some pretty good drivers to pick from. I haven’t even delved into Denny Hamlin, who’s done everything but lose the deal at Bristol, and Carl Edwards, who won the night race in that famed bump ‘n’ fun incident with Kyle Busch. Kasey Kahne has also shown steady improvement race by race. Oh yeah, and then there’s defending Cup champion Jimmie Johnson- who’s never won here and he wants it bad.

As you can see, there’s a lot of possibilities, and no clear-cut front runner. We call it the “Fearless Forecast” for a reason and that is why I am picking…..

Ryan Newman to be the race winner.

The Purdue University graduate has had some bad runs here, but for a guy who’s never won at Bristol he’s had some good ones. The deal with Newman is if he starts well, he tends to finish well. In last season’s night race- he started 11th and finished 6th. in the 2007 Sharpie 500, Newman started and finished 7th. In 2006, he finished 6th and 8th at the Tennessee track. In 2004, 7th and 2nd.

Mired in 32nd, Newman is due and a win couldn’t come at a better time.

You can make numbers suggest anything, and I certainly welcome any case you can make for your driver. It’s all a part of the fun for race weekend.

It’s a wide open race for the checkered flag, but history favors the guys at the front. The guy starting in position #2 looks good to me.