Fearless Forecast: The Kid, the Wonder Boy, Or The Deuce?

  If you’ve been watching, then you’ve been hearing- Atlanta is a driver’s track. Atlanta, with it’s long turns, wide track and it’s worn surface will provide ample testing for some of the best drivers to ever climb into a cockpit.

Will the tires be a factor like they were for Tony Stewart last year? What about the engines troubles of late? How will the driver adjust? 

If you can call him a “dark horse”- then Kurt Busch is a dark horse pick. The 2004 champion has had more notoriety for being Kyle’s big brother these days, but so far in 2009, he’s been pretty darn good- last week’s performance excepted. My question will be one of how the Penske Dodges will old up over the duration. We do know this  though: Kurt’s up front to start and he’s been running top 5 in practice.

With 6 wins in the Peach State, Bobby Labonte would have been another dark horse possibility, were it not for the fact he’s been pretty pedestrian so far in the weekend. Another guy to watch may be Juan Pablo Montoya, who’s starting 4th, or Jamie McMurray, who’s shown moments of brilliance.

Carl Edwards has to be accounted for with his happy hour performance, and you just know he’s going to break out at some point. Teammate Greg Biffle has also been top 10 and keeps demonstrating he’s a force to be reckoned with. Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch are representing JGR well with their qualifying times and practice performances.

As good as those guys are, there are two in particular I have my eye on: Mark Martin and Jeff Gordon. “The Kid” needs a good run after two disastrous weeks and he knows it. Winning the pole is a great way to start. It doesn’t mean everything, but you gotta remember 14 races at AMS have been won from the pole. I look for a performance that will put Martin back in the thick of it.

“Wonder Boy” is going to kick the door down sometime soon after knocking on it for a couple of weeks. The hinges just keeping getting looser and looser. While not great, starting 16th is not horrible by any means. If you’ve got the car and the skill, you can be up front in no. Gordon looks like he’s having fun again and that’s the kind of attitude that breeds confidence- which is something a driver will need to draw from under the gun.

Don’t get me wrong. There are numerous other possibilities. Kasey Kahne and Dale Jr. have won in the Big “A”, as has Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson has a trio of wins here. Winners have done so in Atlanta as far back as 39th- though history tends to favor the front three row- 60 Atlanta Cup race winners have come from the top 6.

It’s called a “Fearless Forecast”, so I’m going to think a little outside the box and predict that…..

Mark Martin will win the 2009 Kobalt Tools 500 in Atlanta.

Enjoy the race!

PHOTO CREDITS- AMS photo by just.julie. Martin by Chad48HMS, Gordon by Ellen Siska. More may be found from these photographers at flickr.com.