Fearless Forecast: On Whom Will Lady Luck Shine In Vegas?

 
UPDATE: Well that sucks! I see the Toyotas have been having trouble with their engines, and now Kyle Busch has loads of company at the back of the field. That may affect my dark horse pick, but it by no means changes my predicted outcome.

Based on my track record so far, it’s a good thing this isn’t ancient Israel. I would have been stoned outside the city gates after Daytona. I missed by a load with Mark Martin at Daytona and my selection of Jimmie Johnson at Fontana was only a mild improvement.

There are a lot of great options at Las Vegas. The Roushketeers have 6 wins at Vegas, but two of the drivers who won for Roush (Jeff Burton and Mark Martin) don’t run for him any m0re. What’s more, I predict Matt Kenseth’s mojo will wear off. Getting 3 wins in a row is virtually impossible, but with that said, I would not be shocked if he made top 10. Carl Edwards has been too quiet for my liking, and qualifying 16th isn’t a good sign for Cousin Carl. I expect all of Jack’s boy to be in the mix, but I’m just not convinced Ford’s premiere team will produce a winner.

Nobody’s ever won from the pole at LVMS. This does not bode well for hometown boy Kurt Busch. He’s wicked fast and like some of the other forgotten veterans from 2008, I expect a good run.

It just won’t be a winning run.

HMS also does well Vegas. I find it not coincidental that the two teams that rule at Auto Club also rule here. They’re both intermediates and logic would just seem to dictate the information from California will transfer to some degree at Vegas. With Kyle Busch being sent to the back, Jimmie Johnson share the front row with Big Brother Busch.

I’m not convinced he’ll lead the Hendrick charge. Neither will Junior, but I expect he will improve and that “go or go home” talk for Lil “E” goes away.

I really like Mark Martin. He won the first Cup race held here, and he won the Nationwide event after he caught Carl Edwards at the end. I’m not sure those wins are relevant, because it’s a different car. On the other hand, “The Kid” qualified 8th and remember, his California calamity was not of his doing. Same deal for June Bug.

They can only get better.

You know what’s interesting? The qualifying marks of Mark Martin, Marcos Ambrose, Kyle Busch and brother Kurt were ALL better than Kasey Kahne’s old qualifying standard of 184.586 m.p.h. (29.212 sec.).

Just thought I’d throw that out there.

A feeling in my gut wants to go with Jeff Gordon. He’s won a race here, but that was eight years ago.

OK- enough screwing around. A dark horse for me would be David Reutimann. Good things are happening at Michael Waltrip Racing. I mean who’da thunk Beak and Mikey would make the Chase if it started today? I’m not sure it will come this week, but I will fearlessly predict a win for Reutimann in 2009 at the Cup level.

I’m going out on a limb. No one has ever won at Vegas from 43rd and a mile and a half track is not normally one where you expect a guy to run from the back to the front. Unless…..the guy you’re picking is……

Kyle Busch.

Yes, if anyone can charge from shotgun to victory lane, it’s “Wild Thing.” Drivers like Busch and Greg Biffle have no qualm about running a car sideways to get it up front. It goes like this Sunday: either Busch will win this race, or he’ll go down in flames. It will be “check’er or wreck’er” this Sunday for the “18″. You gotta know that nothing would be sweeter for Kyle to win at home.

You may not like his style, and Lord know I’ve wanted to put a literary chrome horn on him  a time or two, but you know what, if you’re looking for a driver who’s more Rocky Road than he is Vanilla”- Busch is the man.

I may be off my mark here, but even a broken clock is right twice a day. Good or bad, a Busch will make something happen.

And that’s what NASCAR needs.

 PHOTO CREDITS- Carl Edwards by Walter G. Arce. Mark Martin by liontattoo. Reutimann’s “00″ by jd016. Kyle Busch by Total Phot (leon). There’s a lot of great NASCAR photography by these folks to be found at flickr.com.