Predicting a winner at Daytona is more difficult for me than any other track. In restrictor plate racing, anything’s possible. Let’s not forget Kevin Harvick started the last lap of the 2007 race in 10th place. Turning the clock wayyyyy back, Dale Earnhardt seemed a shoo-in to win the 1990 race before disaster struck- paving the way for Derrike Cope to take the checkered flag.
First of all, there’s the draft. You never know who’s going to pair up and then what the drivers in each pack are eventually going to do. Some guys who HATE each other are suddenly draft partners and you find yourself asking the question: “What Is Dale Jr. going to being on Kyle Busch’s bumper?” Then there’s always the matter of somebody not handling the draft well and causing a wreck.
Secondly, there’s the restrictor plates. You look at who were the really dominant drivers here in terms of wins: Richard Petty, Cale Yarborough, David Pearson, Fireball Roberts and Bobby Allison. Their victory totals of 10, 9, 8,7, and 6 almost exclusively came before NASCAR clamped down on speed. You’ve got to have the juice under the hood, but we’re not gonna have one guy on the lead lap at the end. It opens the door for a Harvick maneuver.
Then there’s the duration of the race, an “X” factor in any race. Cars start gradually
going away, you get all dented up from contact, tires blow, you get caught in somebody else’s mess. All these things to take a guy who’s going good and finish him off.
The sexy pick would be Dale Earnhardt Jr. He’s got a great record on plate tracks and is a student of the draft. I went over to Rowdy.com this morning, and I see NASCAR sage Rick Mast is picking Tony Stewart. Not a bad choice. Smoke knows how to win here and SHR is showing they have the equipment.
What about our wins leaders from 2008? Jimmie Johnson has been consistent throughout the week. Kyle Busch won Gatorade Duel #2 Thursday and Carl Edwards has just kind of been flying under the radar- though very much a part of the mix. His teammate, Jamie Mc Murray makes a good dark horse pick, as does, of all people, Michael Waltrip, who’s won 3 times at Daytona.
You also can’t count out the other guys who’ve experienced success here just this week: Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon and Martin Truex Jr. Gordon has 6 Daytona victories to his credit. Harvick won the Shoot Out plus there’s the 2007 win. Truex won the pole.
Veteran know-how will be a plus for 4-time Daytona track winner Bill Elliott. Bobby Labonte’s never won here, but that Ask.com Ford of his has been spunky all week.
Speaking of veterans…..my pick is an old salt that’s never won a race here……
His name? Mark Martin.
This is Martin’s year. Why?
1) He’s confident. Youthful cockiness is one thing. It’s quite another when you’ve been around a while and you think you can win.
2) The car is good. After practice yesterday, Martin said there’s no way he could get the car any better than it already is.
3) The HMS cars are all stout this week. Every member of the Hendrick is in a position to win this.
4) He’ll have good draft partners- namely his teammates. Yeah, a wreck could mess all that up, but I’d bet no less than two of his teammates will be running top 10 with him.
5) He’s smart. The only guy who may know every crevice in this track may be Dale Earnhardt Jr., an almost maniacal student of the track.
Of course, races aren’t won on paper, and anyone who wagers more than coffee money on auto racing is out of their minds. I may be letting sentiment get in the way, but I don’t think this pick is by any means a reach, based on performance.
PHOTO CREDITS- Daytona by Walter G. Arce. Newman celebration and scoreboard by rosaliedefini. More of their work may be found at flickr.com.
OH- BEFORE I GO:
Let me turn you on to Pit Road Toad- the brainchild of creator/ author/illustrator Art Almond- the “Redneck Walt Disney.” I’ll think you’ll agree he’s found a creative way to break down the “Restrictor Plate.” I recently met Almond at Rowdy.com- more famously known as the home to “Buck” Fever and “Bass” Masters. It’s also home to a really cool kind of Facebook-style community.
Enjoy the ‘toon, and enjoy the race!
