Who’s going to win it all this year? Who’ll make the Chase? Who’ll survive? Who won’t? These burning questions and much more are tackled in a special 2009 season edition of “Fearless Forecast.”
Today’s forecast is the collective work of myself and a panel of Bump Drafts contributors: Former Germain Racing mechanic Patrick Reynolds, Jeremy “T.” Sellers from Jerm’s Joint Racing Pub, and the lovely and talented Miss Mustang Jackie from the Lone Star state.
First, to you Patrick, with your NASCAR insider’s insight….
“The crystal ball worked overtime. I think it worked up a sweat. Now if only I had as much confidence in my Powerball numbers.”
CHASE DRIVERS IN NO PARTICULAR ORDER:
Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Jeff Gordon, Mark Martin, Dale Earnhardt Jr.,
Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton, Greg Biffle, David Ragan, Denny Hamlin,
Matt Kenseth
CUP CHAMPION:
Kyle Busch. There is no question he knows how to stand on the gas and win races. Now he turns last year’s poor Chase finish into his springboard to the title.
NATIONWIDE CHAMPION:
Carl Edwards. The Cup affiliated teams will be powerhouses again. But very few of
those entries have one driver running every race. This is one of those teams not changing seats from one week to the next.
TRUCK SERIES CHAMPION:
Ron Hornaday. Several Truck Series teams have question marks regarding their status for full time competition. KHI’s team has a solid foundation. Hornaday adds to his trophy collection.
CUP ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
Joey Logano. I don’t see him repeating Tony Stewart’s rookie year with three wins and a top five point’s finish, but JGR will outperform Red Bull Racing’s Scott Speed.
NATIONWIDE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
Michael Annett. He is a good driver and he is with the team that finished eighth in points last season. Right now he is under the radar. But not for long.
NATIONWIDE UNDERDOG
It is a shame to have to predict a Nationwide team to win a race in that series an upset. But that is a fact of life right now. Mike Bliss and Phoenix Racing will see victory lane and it will be a feel good story.
NEXT CUP FIRST TIME WINNER
David Ragan. Roush-Fenway Racing is a championship contending organization. Ragan has had two years to mature while driving the number six. This season the investment pays off.
HENDRICK MOTORSPORTS
All four cars will have multi-win seasons. Jimmy Johnson will win races, but fall short of four straight championships. Jeff Gordon will break his winless streak. Dale Earnhardt Jr. will improve on his win total. And Mark Martin will wow us all.
MERGER RESULTS
I predict the teams that joined together to survive will do just that, and only that. They worked very hard over the winter at keeping their doors open and making sure they existed for the start of 2009. Other teams were working on winning races and championships. All that will show on the racetrack. Look for Hendrick, Childress, Roush, and Gibbs to lead the pack.
HOWEVER…
Some of the lower budget, single car, Cup teams could be a big surprise on race day. With no testing this past winter at NASCAR touring sanctioned tracks, and with a little more equality in a COT machine from team to team, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some good finishes from a Scott Riggs or a Jeremy Mayfield just to name a few.
CAR COUNTS
The Daytona 500 will have a healthy car count. But some team’s future depends on how well that week goes. A better barometer will be the following week at California. The Nationwide and Truck Series teams have also been affected by the economy. They just don’t receive the attention that the Cup Series does. Keep an eye on their entry lists as well.
BIGGEST SPLASH
Marcos Ambrose. He is getting ready to be more than just a field filler. I am not sure if he will grab some attention from a strong performance or maybe some controversy. But he will not go unnoticed.
STEWART-HAAS RACING
This team has strong drivers and a lot of potential. But the first year after reorganization and new ownership will be a learning year. Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman could be powerhouses in the future. I think there will be some growing pains this season.
…AND SPEAKING OF STEWART
He will not crash with Kurt Busch in the initial Shootout practice this year. You heard it here first.
FINALLY
ESPN will somehow find someplace to fit in one more graphic on your television screen.
Thanks Patrick. NOW here’s Miss Mustang Jackie’s outlook. Don’t let her good lucks
and charm fool you. She’s a serious race fan, and toy won’t get any “So-and-so will win because he’s hot.” She’ll represent the woman’s perspective with pride……
Sprint Cup Top 12
1. Mark Martin, 2. Carl Edwards, 3. Jimmie Johnson, 4. Kyle Busch, 5. Jeff Gordon,
6. Greg Biffle, 7. Dale Earnhardt Jr., 8. Denny Hamlin, 9. Matt Kenseth, 10. David
Ragan, 11. Kevin Harvick, 12. Tony Stewart
Sprint Cup Champion- It’s highly unlikely that Jimmie and Chad can get 4 in a row. Other teams and drivers are slowly figuring out the new car. I picked Mark Martin because he is a sentimental favorite for so many fans. And don’t let his age fool you. He is in better physical shape than some of the “younger” drivers, plus he has a lot of experience and I think that will factor in the equation. But then again, Carl came so close last year…….
Nationwide Champion- I have to go with Carl Edwards in this series. I think he has the physical and mental toughness to be competitive in both series, plus he will have the equipment to make a serious run in both.
Camping World Truck Series Champion- I choose Ron Hornaday. Last year it was tooth and nail between Ron and Johnny Benson nearly all season long, and since Benson isn’t competing this year, barring any real problems Hornaday will win the Truck championship.
Sprint Cup Rookie of the Year- This is a hard one, but I pick Joey Logano.
Pleasant surprise- David Ragan did fairly well last year, especially during the latter part of the season. I think he will continue to run well and surprise a lot of people with a win or two and be consistent enough to make the Chase.
Dark Horse- Ryan Newman. Now that he’s out of the problem plagued Dodge’s and in a Chevy, I look for him to live up to his nickname “The Rocket Man.”
Biggest Disappointment- Tony Stewart. It is a lot different being a owner-driver than driving for someone else. I just don’t know if he can be a owner then strap into the car and change focus and be a driver.
Will Dale Jr. win more races? Being that he will be in some of the best equipment in the Cup series, this will be the year to find out whether he can live up to his namesake or be another “mid-pack” driver. I think he will have one, possibly two wins.
What notable winless driver from 2008 will remain winless in 2009? I love his sense of humor, but I think Mikey Waltrip will be winless in 2009.
Most Likely To Cause The First Wreck?- This is just a wild guess, and I do like him, but Robby Gordon will probably be involved.
Will Kyle Busch and Earnhardt “get together” again? Yes. Both have a point to prove. Dale Jr. has to prove he can live up to his reputation and Kyle has to prove that he can overcome the fact that he “fell apart” in the Chase last year.
Will Jeff Gordon pass D.W., Cale and Bobby Allison. in wins this year? No. But he will win at least one.
I think there will be more side by side racing as crews and drivers learn more and get used to the COT.
And hopefully Goodyear has a better “grip” on the situation for 2009 so tires won’t be such huge factor in races.
For me personally, one of the most exciting things I could hope for in the 2009 season would be to see Mark Martin and Carl Edwards side by side on the last lap of the Daytona 500 and have a finish so close the winner would be chosen by the thickness of the paint on the front bumper!!
Thanks Jackie. I know you get a little nervous in front of crowds, but you did good in my humble opinion…..
NEXT UP, here’s Jeremy T. Sellers from Jerm’s Joint Racing Pub. Go check his plkace out online sometime. He may be young, but he’s got an old school perspective on things. I think you’ll agree, ol’ Jerm had fun with this one…..
“This assignment was just too good to be true. I’m going to just throw caution to the wind and go with my gut for these forecasts folks….”
In the Chase for 2009:
1) Dale Earnhardt Jr. (I admit, that’s bias at work)
2) Carl Edwards (As long as he doesn’t crack his melon doing back flips…he’s only
getting older, ya know?)
3) Greg Biffle (Almost finding “it” in 2009)
4) Mark Martin (Two seasons racing part time will show what the rust build-up can do)
5) Kevin Harvick (Happy will find his old style of racing and pull off some wins)
6) Tony Stewart (Smoke will burn up the track, proving a owner/driver can get it done)
7) Jamie McMurray (Roush’s hidden gem is NASCAR’s diamond in the rust)
8) Kasey Kahne (It can only get better, right?)
9) David Reutiman (I’m not one for Toyota, but Beak’s break-through year is NOW)
10) Matt Kenseth (He’ll find victory lane again this season, but still blow another tire or two)
11) Jimmie Johnson (The gremlins will finally catch up to him and have been fed after midnight)
12) Kyle Busch (Cinderella gets a beat down from her evil step sisters)
Cup Champion- Dale Earnhardt Jr. will finally prove that the stars and planets do align in perfect harmony every millenium or two!
Nationwide Series- Champion Brad Keselowski will prove that with having a cool last name and Hendrick horsepower, anything is possible.
Camping World Truck Series Champion- Ron Hornaday is still begrudged about losing ‘08 by only three points…and c’mon, he drives a Silverado!
Pleasant Surprise? I think Bobby Labonte will shake off the dust in a Ford, and prove that there is still fire in the ol’ furnace.
Travis Kvapil will prove to be the dark horse candidate for the ‘09 campaign, not to mention the fact his last name is just plain fun to say.
Biggest disapointment? Hmm, I think we’ve already seen this in the off-season regarding all the mergers. The little guy is going to have a tough time this year.
Jeff Gordon will still be crawling hands and knees in the dark looking for a checkered flag. He may cut himself on torn sheet metal instead.
If James Hylton makes the cut, I look for him to cause the first pile-up. I sincerely hope he gets in for a few races, but the Cup cars are a world away now from ARCA. If not, Joey Logano will find out he has bitten off more than he can chew and find himself facing on-coming traffic.
Will Kyle and Dale get together again? Yep, it ain’t gonna be all fuzzy bunnies and teddy bears, either!
Rocket Man Ryan Newman is going to find out driving a Chevy is pretty cool, and probably pop off a top 15 in points this season with a couple victories to add to his resume.
The COT can ONLY improve…if it gets any worse, NASCAR thinks fan base is down now?
There will be less rain-outs for qualifying…I’ve got a conference call later with Mother Nature to confer.
The Nationwide Series will see more of its own win races than in years past. Look for Jason Keller, Bobby Hamilton Jr, and Landon Cassill to be in the mix.
Johnny Benson is going to find out that success is hard to find with his new team after a championship run in ‘08.
“Okay, so there you have it from an “east coaster”. I’m packing my bags to head to Daytona in a few days. Keep it tongue-in-cheek folks and have a GREAT ‘09 season!”
Thanks Jeremy. Look for him in the “Super Stretch” if you’re at Daytona. He and Patrick will both be at Daytona, and if all goes well (like Jeremy doesn’t get tossed in the hoosegow for trying to “borrow” Earnhardt’s car), we’ll be getting Speed Week updates.
NOW, IT’S MY TURN…..
The Sprint Cup Chase (not necessarily in order)
Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson, Greg Biffle, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kyle Busch, Jeff
Gordon, Jamie Mc Murray, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Tony Stewart, Mark Martin
Kasey Kahne
Cup Champion- Jimmie Johnson. He and Chad never beat themselves. He’ll only be dethroned by someone who’s absolutely gone for broke to do it.
Nationwide Series Champion- Clint Bowyer edging out David Reutimann. His luck will be better on this side.
Camping World Truck Series Champion- Ron Hornaday. He’ll be back with a vengeance.
Sprint Cup Rookie Of The Year- Scott Speed. I think his age and experience give him an edge over Joey Logano.
Pleasant Surprise- David Reutimann. “Beak” says his team found something that was working at season’s end.
Dark Horse- Bobby Labonte. Labonte still has the chops and never underestimate the power of the Roush-Yates engine.
Biggest disappointment- The mergers won’t change much at EGR and RPM (with the exception of Kahne). Maybe next year.
Will Junior Win More Races? Yes. Expect 3 wins.
What notable winless driver from 2008 will remain winless in 2009? Matt Kenseth. He runs well, but something always happens.
Most Likely To Cause The First Wreck?- Joey Logano. I really do like the kid, but Daytona’s gonna have him wide eyed.
Will Kyle Busch and Earnhardt “get together” again? Yes. Junior won’t be as likely to take it this time.
Will Jeff Gordon pass D.W., Cale and Bobby A. in wins this year? No, but he will get closer with one.
Other predictions:
Stewart- Haas will be a success.
The racing in the CoT will continue to improve.
Not every race will have a full field.
There it is folks. I hope you enjoyed reading it as much as we did putting it together. Look for the Daytona 500 edition of the “Fearless Forecast” right here on “Bump Drafts” next Saturday.
Until then…..keep all four on the track and out of the wall.
PHOTO CREDITS- Top NASCAR race photo by Adomis Maximus. Junior burn-out by CalifDreama. Harvick and Busch burn-oout photos by Walter G. Arce. Daytona grandstands by johnmiller613. Race crash by boofita. Carl Edwards in car by Aflac. #43 car by mandj98. More from these photographers may be found at flickr. com. Jimmie Johnson trophy photo from nascarmedia.com.
