It seems a foregone conclusion that Jimmie Johnson has a date with history tomorrow at Homestead. J.J. has a 141 point lead over Carl Edwards, meaning that Johnson need only finish 36th or better to win his third straight Cup title- only Cale Yarborugh has done that before, 30 years ago in 1976, ‘77 and ‘78. Edwards has to get all kinds of lucky to pull off the upset.
But could he?
“Cousin Carl” made quite an impression in today’s Nationwide race. Also in 2nd place atop the leader board, Edwards will his way to a win, pushing Clint Bowyer all the way to the finish line. It’s been quite a weekend of drama. In addition to the tightly contested NNS race, the truck racers put on quite a show last night with Johnny Benson rolling the dice and gambling his way past Ron Hornaday for a point title, while Todd Bodine pulled out the race win. It reminds that while luck and equipment are definite factors in winning races, something can be said for a will to win.
Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson have the hearts of champions.
I predict Jimmie will do all he needs to do to win his title. Given that I expect a conservative race from Johnson, it opens the door for Edwards to do what he must to even have a shot: run up front. Edwards has a clearer path to a win- starting out on the second row. Johnson is all the way back at 30th on the starting grid- not a place I’d prefer to be. Johnson’s performance in practice leads me to believe he’ll fight through the traffic to get up front quickly. Fortunately for Johson, this is not Bristol.
Edwards is also a master of the mile and a half track, with a record as impressive as what his is on concrete. So in my mind- while Edwards doesn’t win the war, he wins a nice statement battle on the final day of the 2008 campaign.
The occasion also presents a great opportunity for a non-Chase driver to steal a win. The fact that David Reutimann and Scott Speed are on the front row is not lost on me. Again- thinking of the mile and a half track- I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kasey Kahne be a factor. Same with David Ragan- in search of his first career cup win. Dale Jr. has also looked good off the truck and shouldn’t be ruled out.
There are a number of great story lines, if it seems that Jimmie Johnson is a stone-cold lock to walk off into the sunset with another trophy for his mantle. Last night’s truck race proves anything can happen.
And it often does.
