Fearless Forecast- Atlanta: Refusing To Surrender

I could just mail this in and pick Jimmie Johnson. Who would argue? There’s no hotter racer in NASCAR right now, and he’s making all the right moves, backed by the genius of NASCAR’s hardest working cerew chief Chad Knaus. A third consecutive title and another 2008 victory would be easy to do, and I could make myself look good doing it.

At the same time….since when have I ever been one to make the safe pick?

I really like how Dale Earnhardt Jr. ran at Martinsville last week, a track where victory has eluded him. If there’s one advantage gained by being as far back in the points as Earnhardt is, it’s that you can just go out there, roll the dice, be aggressive and see what happens. It’s that same mentality NFL teams have late in the season that enables them to pull off upsets.

Junior knows he’s having an infinitely better season than he had in his swan song at DEI in 2007. He’s finishing races, he’s more consistent, and the glow of the spotlight cast on his teammate has taken the focus off all those unrealistic expectations people had Junebug this season. That “nothing to lose” mentality can clear the way for some outrageous fun at this point in the season.

Earnhardt will have to fight off a boatload of other competitors here. Does anybody happen to know who’s the active winningest driver here? No less than Bobby Labonte with 6. The only thing holding the driver of “The King’s” Dodge back from victory lane is that anemic engine under the hood.

Of course, Jimmie Johnson’s the safe pick. He obviously has this track figured out. Actually, my number two pick to win in tomorrow’s Pep Boys 500 would be Carl Edwards. a victory here puts Edwards back in serious contention- alongside the likes of Greg Biffle and Jeff Burton. I suppose if I’m calling Edwards another favorite to win it, then I also have to go with his teammate Biffle. “The Biff” continues to run up front week after week, and it will serve him well to be out of the cramped quarters of the short tracks.

While I admire Burton’s race intelligence, I just don’t think those RCR engines have enough “juice” to win on tracks like AMS. If you’re looking for other dark horses, it would be foolish to leave the JGR gang of Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin and Tony Stewart out of the mix.

They say insanity is doing the same thing over and over while expecting different results. I may be crazy, but I’m going with Dale Earnhardt Jr. for this race with his attitude and equipment.