Bump-Drafts.com

I’m not ready to shovel dirt yet on the hopes of any NASCAR driver not named Jimmie Johnson, because the fate that’s befallen Kyle Busch can happen to anybody. Granted, there are some significant differences between the two drivers from their experience to their driving styles, crew chiefs, etc. At the same time, there’s no denying a driver’s fate can dramatically change due to being in the wrong place at the wrong time, or an equipment failure that had nothing to do with the team. That said, Johnson could all but clinch the title this Sunday at Texas, and he’s simply not run a bad race in a long time.

Suffice it to say my number one ranking will be no great mystery, yet you will see that I believe there are a handful of drivers who still have some faint hope should Johnson slip up and they run well.

#5- Jeff Burton- J.B. nearly fell off the radar with his 18th place finish at Atlanta. I still can’t help but believe the engines in the Richard Childress shop simply can’t keep up with what HMS and Roush-Fenway are churning out.

#4- Greg Biffle- The Biff hasn’t been quite as good as he was when the chase started, but the fact he hasn’t folded and has fought through tough races speaks volumes of good about Biffle’s maturity and race intelligence.

#3- David Ragan- Surprised? Not when you consider Ragan has an average finish of 8.6 over the last 5 races. We’re beginning to see why Jack Roush and all the other so-called experts are high on this kid. He’s a winner.

#2- Carl Edwards- Edwards is having the chase I envisioned for Kyle Busch. Edwards is being aggressive, and a reading of the results for far suggests that this approach may win you races, and there other times when it backfires. Think about this- were it not for the penalty for the oil tnka lid at Las Vegas, Jimmie Johnson would have a mirror full of Edwards.

#1- Jimmie Johnson- Who else? Johnson’s worst chase performance is 9th place. No one has been more consistent. Get the engraver ready.

Almost there: If my suspicions of RCR engineering are correct, then you know I think Kevin Harvick hasn’t broken the top 5. Jeff Gordon is so good and yet he can’t close the deal. Don’t count my in the count of those who blame crew chief Steve Letarte. Both Busch brothers- Kyle and Kurt- looked great at AMS. They could make things interesting before its over.

Falling off: Poor Dale Jr. He just can’t keep a car in good running order for an entire race. Clint Bowyer? He’s a Richard Childress driver. See above.

In the world of NASCAR, Greg Biffle is a study in contradictions. In a racing culture popularized by good ol’ boys of Dixie, Biffle hails from the latte-sipping, Volvo driving Northwest. By the same token, Biffle is a dying breed in the upper left-hand corner of the U.S. with his love of boats, flying and fishing. In a culture of hard-talking, hard-racing, adrenaline junkies- Biffle is one cool cat. While his voice is not the loudest and proudest, the 38-year-old quietly has a shot at something no one else has done- not Johnny Benson, not Kevin Harvick, not Mark Martin- and that’s win a title in each of NASCAR’s major touring series: the Craftsman Truck Series, the Nationwide Series and the Sprint Cup Series.

All he needs is a Sprint Cup and he still has a shot at it in 2008.

Gregory Jack Biffle was born December 23, 1969 in Vancouver, Washington, just over the border from Portland, Oregon. While North Carolina is to racing what Texas is to football, Biffle began building a reputation as a wheel man in the Skip Barber Series in 1990. Over the years, Biffle built a reputation for winning at Tri City Speedway in Richland, Washington and nearby Portland Speedway- home to a number of open wheel events back in the day.

While NASCAR drivers such as Tony Stewart, Juan Pablo Montoya and Jeff Gordon have often been noted as former open wheel competitors, it is often forgotten that Biffle followed a similar path. After finishibng 4th in the points in Barber Saab Pro Series in 1993, “The Biff” headed for Europe the following season to compete in the Formula Opel Pro series in 1994 and then he moved on to compete in the British Formula 3 Series in 1995. By 1996, Biffle was back in America for the NASCAR Weekly Racing Series and along the way, he caught the attention of a NASCAR legend. 1973 NASCAR champion Benny Parsons took note of ambitious youngster and gave his name to car owner Jack Roush. Parsons told Roush it would be a mistake to pass the young talent up.

1996 also marked the year Biffle would make his Nationwide Series debut in the #51 Barbasol Chevy Monte Carlo for Dick Brown racing. By 1997, a company seeking help from the Roush organization opened a door of opportunity for Biffle in the Craftsman Truck Series. Greg would open the 1998 season by competing a race truck primarily sponsored by Grainger Industrial Supply. The combination proved to be a hit- Biffle captured a rookie record four poles and earned Rookie Of The Year honors in the CTS. Biffle hit the ground running in 1999 with 9 wins, but couldn’t quite master enough consistency to keep Jack Sprague from winning the title. By the year 2000, he knocked the door down, winning a sesaon high 5 races and capturing a CTS title. The prowess earned Biffle a nice payday, becoming the first CTS competitor to win at least a millon dollars in one season. Over the course of Biffle’s truck racing career, he’s amassed 16 wins and 12 poles.

By this time, the Washingtonian had proven he could compete in nearly anything with wheels and a motor. Biffle moved full time to what wsa then known as the Busch Series and he became Rookie of the Year in 2001. Like he did in the CTS, Greg followed this performance up with a series championship in 2002, finishing ahead of veteran Jason Keller. Biffle made 5 trips to victory lane and captured 4 poles.

That same year, Biffle started trying his hand against the big boys. Around this time in his career, Biffle had proven he could take a lick and bounce back. He once drew the ire of Sterling Marlin who complained when taken out by Biffle “I got taken out by a bug-eyed dummy.” Another Nationwide Series crash found Biffle dealing with an angry Kevin Harvick. Biffle made 7 NSCS starts in 2002, 4 for former Dale Earnhardt crew chief Andy Petree as a sub for Bobby Hamilton, 2 for Richard Petty and one for Jack Roush.

His sprint Cup career got underway in earnest in 2003- Biffle finished 20th in the points and he won his first race in July of that year at Daytona. by 2005, Biffle really got the hand of racing at NASCAR’s top level with a breakout season in 2005- earning 6 victories. In this period Biffle demonstrated a mastery of intermediate tracks and he showed that fearlessness to take a loose car and whip it through the turns with boldness. The Biff placed second behind Tony Stewart in the chase.

Between 2006 and 2007, Biffle hit a few bumps in the road. Greg finished 13th in the points in 2006 and his 2007 victory at Kansas under controversial circumstances provided his lone bright spot. Biffle captured the win under a green-white-checkered and he coasted across the line, while everyone else believed hometown favorite Clint Bowyer had passed Biffle up to win the race. NASCAR ruled it had “frozen the field” and declared Biffle the winner.

This year has proven a much better one for Biffle, a regular in-studio analyst on the SPEED channel. Biffle married longtime girlfriend Nicole Lunders in October, 2007. The home cooking must be doing some good. As of this post, Biffle has won 2 races (both in the Chase) and is a solid contender for no worse than a top 5 finish in the points and maybe even that elusive NSCS title that has so far eluded in him.

If not, Biffle can enjoy another wonderful winter in his bass boat in Mexico resting up for what could be hard-charging season of success in 2009. If you happen to be down that way and meet up with Greg, see if you can’t scam a steak off of him. Biffle once appeared on Paula Deen’s cooking show where he grilled up a steak in this TV appearance. Speaking of TV, Greg also once appeared in the Yes Dear TV show.

When he’s not busy doing all of this stuff, Greg and Nicole are busy making donations through their foundation to animal shelters and various other animal groups.

Biffle is a winner of 14 NSCS races, 16 in the CTS, and 18 in the NNS.

There’s an old saying that goes like this: “There are three kinds of
people- those who make things happen, those who watch things happen,
and those who wonder what happened.” In a sport dominated by events
beyond their control, you have to be impressed by those who can
devise a race plan and execute.

We saw two of the best make it happen today.

Carl Edwards set out today to lead the most laps and win the race at
Atlanta Motor Speedway. A couple of what my British co-worker would
describe as “duff” performance have taken Edwards from “serious
threat” status to “hanging on by a thread.” Flipper was aggressive
from the start and determine to kick booty and take names. Edwards
highly competitive nature was shown when he got mad at Jimmie Johnson
for “jumping the gun.” Edwards opened up the throttle like Junior
Johnson on a moonshine run and pulled the lead from from the Johnson
known as Jimmie.

Those hoping that ABC/ESPN talking head Brad Daugherty would have to
eat his words for declaring this season’s chase over caught a glimmer
of hope when Johnson was penalized for speeding on pit road.
Suddenly, NASCAR’s points goes from the penthouse to the outhouse, re-
joining the festivities in 30th place.

For much of the races’ remainder- we watched Edwards, Matt Kenseth
and Denny Hamlin take turns out front. Jeff Gordon hung tough in the
top 10, Dale Earnhardt Jr. at MOMENTS looked like he could make
things interesting and a guy we all used to love to hate- Kurt Busch.

In spite of this and unusually good runs from Michael Waltrip and
Juan Pablo Montoya it was still the Edwards and Johnson show- and
I’ll tell you why:

Even when Jimmie was in 30th, I was thinking unless somebody wrecks
him, he’s not going away. Not-so-slowly and surely Team Johnson cut
into their deficit. First he gets the “lucky dog”, break the top 15,
then runs towards the top 10.

Then things get really interesting down the stretch.

About the same time Edwards overtakes Denny Hamlin to reclaim the
lead, Johnson begins a run that conjures up comeback wins by Dale
Earnhardt. In another demonstration of the ability to make the right
call, Johnson gets new tires and picks off 6th, then 5th, then 4th,
3rd before overtaking Hamlin for second place.

Edwards did what he set out to do, but due to the defending
champion’s come-from-behind performance was unable to achieve the
goal that he hoped his performance would achieve- and that’s cut into
Johnson’s lead.

Did you see Edwards’ reaction when he found out that Johnson got
second? You would have thought somebody told him he was dq’ed of his
win due to a violation. That had to hurt.

It was also nice to see Goodyear not be as much of an issue today.
Yes- there were tire problems, but they had to do more with the
surface than they did any manufacturer defect. One driver said
Atlanta is becoming “the New Darlington” with its aging, and
therefore challenging surface.

This race was reasonably eventful and was not especially marred by
cautions and collisions. All that, and at the end of the day, this
race was about two racers who executed a game plan. One to win the
race, and the other to rally from behind using a fast car and clever
strategy to hold their ground.

As we head down the homestretch- things could get interesting as
Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards head to their “wheel house” tracks at
Texas, Phoenix, and Homestead.

I could just mail this in and pick Jimmie Johnson. Who would argue? There’s no hotter racer in NASCAR right now, and he’s making all the right moves, backed by the genius of NASCAR’s hardest working cerew chief Chad Knaus. A third consecutive title and another 2008 victory would be easy to do, and I could make myself look good doing it.

At the same time….since when have I ever been one to make the safe pick?

I really like how Dale Earnhardt Jr. ran at Martinsville last week, a track where victory has eluded him. If there’s one advantage gained by being as far back in the points as Earnhardt is, it’s that you can just go out there, roll the dice, be aggressive and see what happens. It’s that same mentality NFL teams have late in the season that enables them to pull off upsets.

Junior knows he’s having an infinitely better season than he had in his swan song at DEI in 2007. He’s finishing races, he’s more consistent, and the glow of the spotlight cast on his teammate has taken the focus off all those unrealistic expectations people had Junebug this season. That “nothing to lose” mentality can clear the way for some outrageous fun at this point in the season.

Earnhardt will have to fight off a boatload of other competitors here. Does anybody happen to know who’s the active winningest driver here? No less than Bobby Labonte with 6. The only thing holding the driver of “The King’s” Dodge back from victory lane is that anemic engine under the hood.

Of course, Jimmie Johnson’s the safe pick. He obviously has this track figured out. Actually, my number two pick to win in tomorrow’s Pep Boys 500 would be Carl Edwards. a victory here puts Edwards back in serious contention- alongside the likes of Greg Biffle and Jeff Burton. I suppose if I’m calling Edwards another favorite to win it, then I also have to go with his teammate Biffle. “The Biff” continues to run up front week after week, and it will serve him well to be out of the cramped quarters of the short tracks.

While I admire Burton’s race intelligence, I just don’t think those RCR engines have enough “juice” to win on tracks like AMS. If you’re looking for other dark horses, it would be foolish to leave the JGR gang of Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin and Tony Stewart out of the mix.

They say insanity is doing the same thing over and over while expecting different results. I may be crazy, but I’m going with Dale Earnhardt Jr. for this race with his attitude and equipment.

Once again, the folks at Yahoo! Sports have opened up Pandora’s Box. Anytime you you ask fans what they’d do to change NASCAR for the traditional fan base, you’re gonna get about the same five answers you’ll get all the time. “Let’s get rid of the Chase,” “Let’s get rid of the new car,” “Bring back ‘The Rock’” and “Can’t the networks do a better job of covering ALL the drivers and not just the top 12?”

What I’m about to say is small consolation, because the truth is sometimes hard to swallow. I will no dispute some drivers get tons more coverage than others. I may be newer to becoming a NASCAR Kool-Aid drinker, but I have the perspective of somebody who followed stick and ball sports passionately for 30+ years and and on again off again career as somebody who has covered sport professionally.

The complaint raised here runs all throughout sports. Offensive linemen rarely get noticed unless they commit a penalty. Once in a while, a savvy announcer points out how a great block opened a hole for the star running back or QB. Watch the the World Series, and you’ll hear a lot about (using the Tampa Bay Rays as an example) Evan Longoria, B.J. Upton and Carl Crawford. Gabe Gross will have to do something VERY spectacular to get more than a mere mention of his name. Same goes for the middle innings relievers and such. If you watched the Chicago Bulls during their great run in the 90s, it was Michael Jordan this, Scottie Pippen that and Dennis Rodman doing something outrageous. You heard virtually nothing about the heady play of Jud Buechler off the bench or the sharpshooting of Steve Kerr.

My favorite athletes over the years have included the less spectacular likes of the NFL’s Ed Mc Caffrey, Portland Trail Blazer Larry Steele (a defensive stopper during the Blazers glory days of the 70s), and Brett Butler- a name famiilar only to serious baseball fans.

That’s to say, I understand. Among my current favorites is former NASCAR champion Bobby Labonte. It’s be nice to see him get some attention besides those occasions when he gets hung up in a collision. Trust me, I feel your pain.

What I’m saying is sports coverage generally sticks to the most popular. If they do well- it’s a story. If they’re slumping, it’s an even bigger story. Right now, the Tennessee Titans are 6-0 and SportsCenter devotes more time to Tony Romo’s broken pinkie. Why? It’s a matter of popularity. How many of you can actually name who’s starting at wide receiver, a high visibility position for the Titans? If you know, I’ll bet you’re a major football fan, or you live in Tennessee.

NASCAR isn’t a heck of a lot different. The go or go homers do get a lot of love during “knock out” qualifying, and you have to admit they at least try to run “through the field” at least once during the race. Sad to say, unless Dale Jr. or Jeff or Kyle are running 40th, the idea that Tony Raines is running 40th is only a story to a hardcore fan. Honestly, most sports coverage (right or wrong) is not aimed at the hard core fan, but the casual fan.

Thank God we have driver websites, the Internet and online chat communities to discuss the exploits of Kyle Petty or Scott Riggs. We didn’t even have that until about 15 years ago. Go back a little further, and forget about watching an entire race. My introduction to NASCAR came from the little cutaways they did during Wide World of Sports back in the late 70s when you might see about 50 laps of a major race if you were lucky. Myself- I just began on this website a weekly profile of NASCAR Cup drivers, and I’m going in alphabetical order. So you’ll get everything from A.J. Allmendinger to J.J. Yeley.

If you listened to my radio sportscasts, you’d likely be disappointed during the week. NASCAR gets love about once an hour for two hours on Friday and Monday. During the week (Tuesday thru Thursday) NASCAR only gets any press if there’s a major announcement- usually bad news. It’s the reality of living in football country and a place where golf, high school sports, college sports, and baseball have more of a following. I’m working on converting Medford, Oregon into the latest pit stop on NASCAR Nation, but it the conversion will come more likely following the exploits of Junior, Shrub or Carl rather than those of Joe Nemechek or Jason Leffler.

As Bruce Hornsby would say, “That’s just the way it is.”

While Jimmie Johnson appears to be closing in on NASCAR’s top prize for the third year in a row, I am not going to go the route of the mainstream media and just hand it to him now. As I’ve said before, it will take a major slip-up to stop Johnson from making history and putting his name up alongside Cale Yarbrough as the only driver to win three titles in a row.

It’s not over. Until it is, you can’t count on anything. Ask Kyle Busch.

#5- Jeff Burton- I hate to say it, but Martinsville was a setback for one of NASCAR’s true gentlemen. Deep down inside, I think all NASCAR fans have a place in their heart for J.B. The real challenge for the RCR crew of Burton, Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer is that their engines just don’t seem to have the same pep as the other top teams. Alas, it could be worse. There are about 35 NASCAR drivers who’d give anything to be in Burton’s position right now.

#4- Dale Earnhardt Jr.- He may not be a serious contender to wrest the Cup away from his teammate, but make no mistake Junior has served notice that he will not mail in his 2008 finish. Roll the clock back to this time last year, and the struggles of his swan song at DEI are a distant memory. I’ll go out on a limb and say he’s got one more win in him before the season’s done- maybe even two.

#3- Carl Edwards- Safe to say Cousin Carl’s head is on straight again, and perhaps the announcement of his engagement to “Dr. Kate” will provide incentive to finish the 2008 campaign in style. It will take a major hot streak to seriously consider Edwards as a serious threat to Johnson, but we’ve seen Edwards get that hot before. Edwards is quite capable of great runs on mile and a half tracks.

#2- Greg Biffle- “The Biff” is becoming Roush- Fenway’s answer to Jeff Burton. Biffle keeps hanging around and he’s poised to capitalize on any break he gets. No question, anyone in the “Cat In The Hat” garage has some of the best equipment in NASCAR to work with. A Sprint Cup title for Biffle would earn him a trifecta no one else has ever earned in NASCAR- a Sprint Cup, a Nationwide and a truck title. Look for a profile on the pride of Vancouver, Washington in my driver profile series next week.

#1- Jimmie Johnson- Johnson was good off the hauler at Martinsville. Overtaking the defending champ won’t get any easier there’s no reason to expect any foreseeable weaknesses for him at Atlanta, Texas, Phoenix or Homestead. About the only person who can stop Jimmie is Jimmie.

(This is the first in a weekly series spotlighting Sprint Cup drivers. We’ll take ‘em all one-by-one in alphabetical order)

It makes sense that A.J. Allmendinger’s in a Dodge, taking over the #10 at Gillett-Evernham Racing in place of Patrick Carpentier. The manufacturer and driver are no strangers to each other.

While 26-year-old from Los Gatos, California is relatively new to the NASCAR scene, Allmendinger’s no stranger to turning laps in a Dodge. In 2001, Anthony James Allmendinger finished second in the points to Julio Campos in the Formula Dodge Championship- just missing the title by two points. In 2002, Allmendinger broke out with a championship in the Barber Dodge Pro Series.

Like many NASCAR drivers, this is just the tip of the iceberg in terms of accomplishments. A.J.’s accolades include two championships in the International Karting Federation Grand Nationals, a rookie record 8 wins in the Toyota Atlantic series in 2003. Those victories laid the foundation for Allmendinger to not only win top rookie honors, but also win the series championship.

For all that, the hard-racing Californian is probably best know for his exploits in the Champ Car series. In 2004, Allmendinger became the first American to earn rookie of the year honors in Champ Car since 1991. He went on to finish 5th in the Champ Car points standings in 2005, then he went on to pick up 5 wins in 2006. A.J.’s success earned the notice of Bill Davis, who gave him a ride in the Craftsman Truck Series in 2006. Allmendinger rewarded Davis’ confidence with 15th place finish in his debut at New Hampshire, and then he bettered that with an impressive 5th place finish at Talladega.

As NASCAR turned the page to the 2007, A.J. Allmendinger was signed by Team Red Bull to pilot the #84 Toyota. The campaign proved a challenge to Allmendinger’s resolve- crashing in the Gatorade Duals and failing to make the field until Bristol. A.J. finished 40th in his maiden Sprint Cup voyage.

Even with all the struggles, there was plenty of NASCAR buzz that suggested that the former open wheeler had the spunk, the fearlessness and the skill to succeed on stock car racing’s biggest stage. The knock on Allmendinger was the need for experience. A.J. gained valuable seat time, piloting a trauck for Darrell Waltrip Motorsports, and racing in the #42 car for Chip Ganassi in the Nationwide Series. Allmendinger went on to race in 17 Sprint Cup events, finishing 43rd in the standings and demonstrating greater potential as the season wound down.

Allmendinger’s road to NASCAR glory became marred with potholes as the 2008 season got underway. Allmendinger failed to qualify for the Daytona 500, and for a variety of reasons missed the field for the next 3 races. Team Red Bull benched A.J. for CTS veteran Mike Skinner. Fortunately, that attitude that endeared fans to him strengthened his resolve not to sulk, but to learn while a more experienced hand worked to improve on the “84″ team’s standing in the series. The driver whose introduction to racing came racing BMX bikes at the age of 5 soon returned to score a non-points qualifying win in the Sprint All-Star race.

While this season has seen good moments for Allmendinger- he showed off his road course skills with an 11th place finish at Watkins-Glen- he still had frustrating finishes that saw him bobbing up and down around 35th in the points. Though Allmendinger learned that he’d be replaced in the Red Bull #84 by phenom Scott Speed, Allmendinger turned in a career best 9th at Kansas.

What’s next for A.J.? 2009 is still a bit murky, but since leaving Red Bull, Allmendinger entered one race in the #00 for Michael Waltrip, and he finished 15th in the #10 for Ray Evernham last Sunday at Lowe’s Motor Speedway. He looks like a good fit for the team, alongside teammates Kasey Kahne and Elliott Sadler.

The fact that his favorite racers are Jeff Gordon and Juan Pablo Montoya tell you something about Allmendinger’s connection to open wheel racing. Besides racing- Allmendinger enjoys cycling, bowling, and playing video games- a popular pursuit among NASCAR’s young guns.

A.J. Allmendinger jacks himself up to the music of Linkin Park, 50 Cent, Fuel and Usher. He married Canadian chiropractor and model Lynne Kushnirenko in January, 2007. The couple splits time between homes in Huntersville, North Carolina and Toronto, Canada.

Sources: Sporting News Officially Licensed NASCAR Record and Fact Book (2007 edition); Wikipedia; a.j.allmendinger.com.

Move over Reggie Jackson, NASCAR has its own answer to “Mr. October.” Can anyone deny Jimmie Johnson is the greatest driver of our decade? Johnson is putting together another dominating stretch run in what today looks like another trip to the trophy. With surgical precision, the two-time defending Cup series champion and his pit boss Chad Knaus had the answer for every situation today as Johnson captured his 6th victory of the year at Martinsville.

It becomes more and more obvious to me that Chad Knaus is the hardest working crew chief in NASCAR. He and Johnson have a strategy for every situation and the right adjustment for every condition. I can easily envision what has been likely happening on many nights over the last 5 or so seasons. Jimmie and Chad breaking down cars and strategy in some late night cafe, or out on the patio over a cool one. You can see it. They don’t really ask what they should do when Junior or Carl are bearing down on them- they KNOW what to do. I can’t help but think its the same sympatico that existed between Ray Evernham and Jeff Gordon, Jeff Hammond and Darrell Waltrip.

Yeah, I picked Gordon to win, but in my heart, I’d be lying if I didn’t say Jimmie’s dominance was no surprise whatsoever. We’ve seen this act before: Johnson is good “off the truck”- laying down crisp laps in practice and carrying it over to the race. Heck- his car was LOUSY last week and Johnson ran 6th.

How many drivers can do that? Only the great ones can.

Give Dale Jr., Jeff Gordon and Carl Edwards credit for making it at least a little interest. The “88″ and “99″ treated us to some good, hard, clean racing in their late dogfight for 2nd place.

Bummer for Jamie Mc Murray. Jamie had a sweet ride today before his car went gunny sack on him.

Poor Kyle Busch. He’s the “anti-Jimmie” right now. I’ve never seen such a complete reversal of fortunes for a driver once so dominant. And let’s be honest- it’s not his driving. Shrubs’ cars have been downright abysmal lately.

I really wouldn’t call myself a Jimmie Johnson fan. Those who know me well know my loyalties lie elsewhere. At the same time, I know history when I see it. Today- I truly believe Jimmie Johnson has the best shot of anyone in today’s NASCAR to equal or beat Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt’s share of 7 points titles.
Don’t get me wrong, about the only chasers that seem legitimately finished are the bottom 4 or 5. Jeff Burton, Greg Biffle, and maybe even Carl Edwards will be on hand to capitalize on any slip ups by Johnson. Let usnot forget, the 33-year-old was pretty pedestrian by Johnson standards in the early season.

By the same token, there’s an instinct that kicks in with the “48″ team when the leaves turn colors and the air gets crisper.

It’s go time!

This crew knows what it’s all about. They’ve been there before, and they’ll do it again.

I just got through engineering a high school football game last night, and something the color analyst said made me think of racing at Martinsville. Apparently our team’s fullback looked a little lost, stumbling around once he broke through the line because he didn’t have anybody to hit as he carried the ball. The analyst went went on talk about how fullbacks thrive on contact and their rare carries just aren’t complete without laying someone out. I remember thinking, “That’s just like short track racing.”

We’ve talked about it before- in NASCAR, you’ve got your guys like Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Michael Waltrip who love drafting on the super speedways. Then, for whatever reason, you have your guys who are partial to the intermediate tracks like Kasey Kahne and Carl Edwards. The road courses require an entirely different approach altogether, and the guys with open wheel experience such as Tony Stewart, Juan Pablo Montoya and Jeff Gordon do better on the twists and turns of places like Infineon.

On the short tracks, it takes a fullback mentality. I can tell you right off the bat, there are guys I DON’T expect to do well. “Cousin” Carl Edwards will NOT run well here. I’ve got a feeling it will be a long day for David Ragan, who is already banished to the back with his back up car after crashing in practice. The bumping and banging doesn’t tend to favor Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kyle Busch, and Greg Biffle. The funny part is, most of these guys ran short tracks in the formative stages of their careers. Most racers’ had a local dirt track they cut their teeth on when they were young- on something like my local dirt track- the 3/8 mile Southern Oregon Speedway. Somewhere along the line, some of these guys lose their taste for the cramped quarters of a Martinsville or a Bristol.

On the other end of the scale, I expect good things from the Richard Childress crew. Clint Bowyer has an excellent shot at winning as he seems to thrive on contact. No doubt Kevin Harvick has a controlled aggressiveness that suits him well. When it comes to control, there’s none better than Jeff Burton, fresh off his win at Charlotte.

Other guys who’ve won here include two -time winner Tony Stewart as well as Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin and Bobby Labonte. With 4 wins and a 2007 sweep of Martinsville, NASCAR’s “Mr. October”, one Jimmie Johnson will be favored by many.

While Hamlin and the elder Busch make great dark horse picks, and while conventional wisdom favors the reigning Sprint Cup champion- I’m going to be a little UNconventional. Well- unconventional if you go only on how this year has gone.

I’m going with 7-time Martinsville winner Jeff Gordon. The 4-time champion will keep his streak of at least one victory a year alive since 1994 with a win on the “half mile headache” tomorrow.

Yes, Gordon has had his ups and downs. Week after week, disgruntled Gordon fans are calling for crew chief Steve Letarte’s head on a platter, and there was the monster hit at Las Vegas. It’s funny to me how Kevin Harvick has no wins in 2008. and neither does the skillful Matt Kenseth- and yet you have no one calling for the dismissal of their pit bosses Chip Bolin and Todd Berrier.

It just serves to remind us of the lofty standards set for the owner of 81 career wins. This kind of historic success has this tendency to make us forget that Gordon has overcome a number of rough outings to be in the chase for the championship. In fact, Gordon came darn close to pulling off the win last week.

A win here would be redemptive for Gordon’s pit crew. Given the difficulty of passing at Martinsville, pit strategy will be key here. Gordon’s crew has the standard of excellence expected of them by virtue of their affiliation with Hendrick Motorsports. HMS crews are not cream puff crews. When it comes to the tough decisions, take heart Letarte critics- the crew chief won’t do anything that the Rainbow Warrior won’t allow.

When you combine this with Gordon’s love of contact and threading through tight quarters (it’s also worthwhile to note the “24″ has 5 wins at Bristol and 2 at Richmond), and the quality of his organization- the selection of Jeff Gordon to win at Martinsville is a pretty good pick.

Yes- he’ll have his mirror full of Johnson, Harvick, Burton, Stewart and maybe even Matt Kenseth, but Sunday will be Jeff Gordon’s day.

Who’da thunk a 5-7, 160 pound guy would ever be compared to a fullback?

Ya know, this race is a lot like presidential election (yeah, I’m getting political, but it’s my blog, so there). While it appears the top drivers have some breathing room between themselves and the rest of the crowd, there’s still time left and still a very real possibility that anything can happen.

Will there be an “October Surprise” in the 2008 Chase for the Cup? I wouldn’t rule it out.