Here’s what we’ve learned from this season: leads aren’t safe. How many times have we seen the guy who led the most laps end up losing race? The Chase for the Sprint Cup has the potential to play out the same way.
It’s really pretty wide open.
Kyle Busch has been dominant at times, and he could go on a similar tear again. As we speak, Shrub has been a little quiet lately. What I like about his chances for winning is that Busch has demonstrated to an ability to win on a variety of tracks. this doesn’t even take into consideration that Busch is the recipient of Toyota’s commitment to winning and the track record for excellence for Joe Gibbs Racing. Kyle can be streaky though, and he needs to get a good streak going to hold off the likes of Edwards and Johnson.
“Cousin Carl” Edwards is your prototypical Roush- Fenway racer. He excels at the intermediate tracks, but is curiously quiet on the road courses and restrictor plate tracks. The Missourian has strung together some nice runs and mainly needs to avoid the “bad luck factor” (getting caught up somebody else’s mess) by qualifying more consistently towards the front.
“Mighty Mo’” is smiling on Jimmie Johnson. If I could liken him to an athlete from another sports, it’d be Derek Jeter. He’s kind of quiet and almost unspectacular in what he does, but he’s always there when it counts. Like Jeter, Johnson also has allthe right support in place. The two-time defending champ has the best crew chief in NASCAR backing him, plus the Yankees of auto racing, Hendrick Motorsports, providing the machinery. He has to be the favorite.
Like he has been all year, Dale Earnhardt Jr. is oh so close. With a good run, he could win it all. What Junior and his cousin Tony Eury have to do is overcome the maddening tendency to beat themselves. Say what you want about the guy, but Earnhardt has made a quantum leap forward from last year.
He made by the skin of his teeth, but by golly, Clint Bowyer made it. Like Busch, Bowyer is streaky. Bowyer can finish 1st one race and turn around and 43rd the next. At times, I think the “07″ is a little too tightly wound for his own good, but with that Chevrolet and RCR support, there’s no reason why Bowyer can;t at least pick up one more win for the campaign if not finish out front.
Denny Hamlin thrives on adversity, and that can work to his advantage. After lamenting that his team wasn’t worthy of the Chase, the FedEx Toyota driver carries the mail to three consecutive 3rd place finishes. He may be a little uneven and gets down on himself, be Hamlin CAN BE very good when his head is right.
“Mr. Consistency”, Jeff Burton, just keeps rolling like old man river. I wished he qualified better. He has to work too hadr to get the finishes he gets. Just a touch more agressiveness would serve him well too. He may not win it all, but Burton should place in the top 5.
While I’ve come to appreciate the passion and fury that is Tony Stewart, I am NOT happy with his actions last Sunday, throwing his pit crew under the bus. I get the frustration, but the commentary was totally inappropriate. Smoke could very well be a dark horse, or if he keeps his little tantrums up- he could be a lame duck.
It’s up to him.
Greg Biffle is something of a feel good story in 2008. His Kansas victory and his wedding were “The Biff’s” only bright spots in 2007. Biffle has been amazingly consistent this season, and like the other Roush boys, another tough customer on the intermediates. The way he’s going lately, don’t be surprised if Biffle finishes top 5.
If Biffle’s the feel good story (with all apologies to Dale Jr.), Jeff Gordon’s 2008 campaign is one of struggle. People are quick to blame crew chief Steve Letarte, but who really knows? I am a bit surprised he made it at all. By the same token, he didn’t get 4 Cups and 81 wins by being stupid for long stretches, so don’t go shoveling dirt on Gordon just yet.
Talk about stories of survival, nobody has done more with less than Todd Berrier and his driver, the determined Kevin Harvick. Nobody gives him grief like they did Junior, but Harvick hasn’t won since the opening of the 2007. Race after race, Harvick fights crummy cars and adversity to finish top 10 on an incredibly consistent basis. I don’t see Happy winning it all, I’m just glad he made it at all as a testimony to perseverence.
And then there’s the “Eeyore” of NASCAR, Matt Kenseth. He’d turn Norman Vincent Peale- Mr. “Power of Positive Thinking”- into a pessimist. You’d think he was a “go or go homer” the way he talks in all the interviews. It’s pretty amazing when you think that an one early point in the year, “Matt the Brat” was mired in 22nd. Give him credit for rallying towards the front. Behold the power of negative thinking. He’s a past champion, so don’t “misunderestimate” him. It could be “strategery.”
Like Anthony Michael Hall, a.k.a. “Farmer Ted” said: This….is getting good.
